Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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251 FXUS64 KSJT 050530 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1230 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...Significant severe weather expected again this afternoon and evening... Not much change to forecast reasoning the next 24 hours. Early this afternoon, a weak cold front was moving slowly south across far southern portions of the Big Country and extends west to near Midland and west to the New Mexico border. A dryline extended south from the front across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos. Isolated thunderstorms have already developed just north of the boundary early this afternoon. One cell was located in Scurry county and another in Nolan county. Both of these storms will have the potential to produce large hail despite being on the north side of the front. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and north of the front later this afternoon and then south of the front and east of the dryline during peak heating. Any storms north of the front will pose a large hail and possibly a wind threat. The airmass ahead of the front and east of the dryline will become very unstable by mid/late afternoon (MLCAPE 2500-3500), with deep layer shear 45-60 kts by early evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop between 19 and 20Z, per latest CAM`s. Any storms that develop within the warm sector will become severe quickly, with large to very large hail and some tornadoes possible. A southeasterly low level jet will develop this evening, increasing the tornado potential as storms move east into richer moisture. The greatest tornado potential is expected generally south and west of a San Angelo to Sonora line, where a strong tornado is possible. Isolated tornadoes will be possible farther south and east across portions of the Heartland and northwest Hill Country counties later this evening/overnight. Storms are expected to eventually form into an MCS and move east across the area overnight. In addition to the severe threat, heavy rainfall will be possible through tonight, with widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain expected, with some locales seeing in excess of 3 inches. Excessive rainfall may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Due to the heavy rain potential and given recent heavy rainfall, a Flood Watch has been issued for most of the area, except far western counties through tomorrow morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move east of the area by mid to late morning, with mainly dry conditions through afternoon. However, may see some isolated development over far southeast counties tomorrow afternoon, so will keep low POPs intact for now. Expect cooler temperatures tomorrow, with highs mainly in the upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 There will be a few days in the long term which we will be monitoring for severe weather potential. Part of the Big Country is in a marginal risk, with a small part of Throckmorton County in a slight risk for Monday. Right now, it looks like the higher severe threat will be to our northeast, but with the moist air mass we`ll have in place, the high instability, and the decent shear, we can`t rule out severe weather for Monday afternoon and evening. Wednesday also has the potential for severe weather, mainly in our eastern counties, once again due to very high instability. Right now, the chances for rain and storms look low for our area and better to our east for Wednesday, but this is something we`ll be watching. There will be a warming trend into the middle of next week, as an 850 mb thermal ridge starts to shift over our area and southwest/west winds bring downsloping, warm air. A cold front is expected to bring below- normal temperatures (highs in the 70s and 80s) for the Big Country on Thursday and all of the area for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Area of showers and storms continues across the eastern terminals early this morning, but should be pushing east over the next several hours. Some brief clearing may follow, but fog and IFR/MVFR cigs will quickly redevelop before sunrise and persist well into the morning hours. Will eventually see VFR skies return but may take well into the afternoon at most locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 65 87 62 89 / 10 10 0 0 San Angelo 65 90 64 93 / 10 10 0 0 Junction 68 88 68 95 / 10 10 0 0 Brownwood 65 84 66 89 / 10 20 0 0 Sweetwater 65 88 61 89 / 10 10 0 0 Ozona 66 88 65 91 / 10 10 0 0 Brady 67 83 68 89 / 10 20 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this afternoon for Brown-Callahan-Coke- Coleman-Concho-Haskell-Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard- Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sutton-Taylor- Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...07