Extended Streamflow Guidance
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000
FGUS63 KMSR 121653
ESGTND

TRIBUTARIES TO THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH IN NORTH DAKOTA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1153 AM CDT TUE MAR 12 2024

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Sheyenne River
VCRN8            15.0   16.0   17.0    <5   10   <5    7   <5    6
LBNN8            15.0   17.0   19.0    <5   11   <5   10   <5    7
KNDN8            16.0   19.0   20.5     7   20   <5   11   <5   10
:Sheyenne River Diversion
WFON8            18.0   20.0   21.0    <5   12   <5   11   <5   10
:Maple River
ENDN8             9.5   12.0   14.0    16   26   <5   11   <5   <5
MPLN8            18.0   21.0   23.0    27   39   11   18   <5    5
:Sheyenne River
HWDN8            84.0   86.0   91.0    10   26    8   21   <5   10
:Goose River
HGRN8            10.0   13.0   16.0    <5   19   <5   10   <5   <5
:Forest River
MTON8             6.0    8.0   11.0    <5   25   <5    7   <5   <5
:Pembina River
WLHN8            11.0   16.0   18.0    <5   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
NCEN8            18.0   19.0   20.5    <5   27   <5   26   <5   20

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0318 Z DH12 /DC2403121653/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Sheyenne River
VCRN8       5.6/    5.6/    5.6/    6.8/    9.0/   10.8/   12.7
LBNN8       4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    5.9/    8.1/   11.0/   13.2
KNDN8       7.4/    7.4/    7.4/    8.0/   10.2/   13.5/   17.3
:Sheyenne River Diversion
WFON8      10.3/   10.3/   10.3/   10.8/   11.7/   14.5/   17.2
:Maple River
ENDN8       4.1/    4.1/    4.8/    6.0/    7.8/   10.2/   11.7
MPLN8      12.1/   12.1/   12.1/   13.6/   18.2/   21.3/   22.2
:Sheyenne River
HWDN8      74.5/   74.5/   74.5/   75.8/   79.7/   84.6/   90.5
:Goose River
HGRN8       2.9/    2.9/    3.0/    3.9/    5.4/    7.4/    9.7
:Forest River
MTON8       2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.5/    3.4/    4.9/    5.5
:Pembina River
WLHN8       3.0/    3.2/    3.7/    4.4/    5.5/    7.1/    7.7
NCEN8       4.6/    4.9/    5.7/    7.2/    9.6/   13.5/   14.8
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0318 Z DH12 /DC2403121653/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Sheyenne River
VCRN8       3.9/    3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5
LBNN8       2.9/    2.6/    2.4/    2.4/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3
KNDN8       3.4/    3.2/    2.7/    2.5/    2.4/    2.3/    2.3
:Sheyenne River Diversion
WFON8       7.3/    6.9/    6.2/    5.9/    5.7/    5.3/    5.3
:Maple River
ENDN8       2.6/    2.5/    2.3/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2
MPLN8       8.7/    8.4/    8.2/    8.1/    8.1/    8.0/    8.0
:Sheyenne River
HWDN8      70.0/   69.3/   68.1/   67.5/   67.1/   66.7/   66.6
:Goose River
HGRN8       2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8
:Forest River
MTON8       1.5/    1.4/    1.4/    1.3/    1.3/    1.2/    1.2
:Pembina River
WLHN8       2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8/    1.5/    1.4/    1.3
NCEN8       2.5/    2.4/    2.2/    2.0/    1.7/    1.4/    1.3
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$



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