859
FXUS64 KTSA 051518
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1018 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1018 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A soggy and wet morning continues across much of eastern Oklahoma
and west/northwest Arkansas. Latest GOES-16 water vapor imagery
shows the culprit mid-level shortwave trough and its axis just
west of the forecast area. As such, widespread light to moderate
rainfall, with pockets of heavy to very heavy rainfall, will
persist into the afternoon. Rainfall rates 2 to 3 inches/hour will
be possible and have been observed with the heavier showers and
thunderstorms that occurred earlier this morning. Modest
instability over the region will also keep a chance for strong
thunderstorms that may produce small hail and gusty winds. As the
trough axis advances eastward across the area this afternoon, so
will the heavy rainfall/higher rainfall rates, with the heaviest
rain shifting east of the forecast area by mid- late afternoon.
Until then, flooding and flash flooding will be the main concerns
for the day. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire
forecast area until 7 PM this evening.

Overall, the short term forecast remains on track, with only minor
adjustments made thus far to the forecast grids. Afternoon highs
will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s in most locations.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Lingering rain across the NW AR zones should end by 06z, leaving
the forecast area dry for rest of tonight much of the daytime on
Monday, though some model data hints at some elevated shower and
storm potential Monday afternoon across SE OK and NW AR, so will
keep a low Pop in those areas. Focus turns to storms that develop
along the dryline to west later Monday afternoon in conjunction
with an upper trough that lifts from the mountain west region into
the high plains Monday afternoon and evening. Potential for some
significant severe weather will exist with storms that northeast
Oklahoma late in the afternoon or more likely Monday evening.
Greatest coverage/higher end severe potential continues to favor
NE OK and NW AR Monday eve/night. Despite lower storm coverage
roughly from I-40 to the south, the environment will remain
supportive of a higher end severe threat with any storm that
develops. Coverage will diminish late Monday night and Tuesday
morning, leaving most much of the area in a lull. However, will
keep though low PoPs across the eastern sections of the forecast
area Tuesday and Tuesday night. An uptick in storm chances will
come Wednesday with a cold front that enters the area, with some
severe potential in place ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon
and evening. The boundary will push through the area by Thursday
morning. Cooler and drier air will filter into the area starting
Thursday. An upper trough in NW flow aloft will clip the area
Friday, and may produce a few showers across NE OK and NW AR,
however will leave PoPs out for now. Otherwise, settled conditions
are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Widespread showers and storms currently across much of E OK will
steadily expand eastward through the day. Widely varying ceilings
having been noted both within the precip and further east across
NW AR. These varying flight levels are likely to persist however
the overall trend should be for low MVFR to IFR ceilings through
much of the day. Precip will end from west to east during the
afternoon, however ceilings will be slower to lift and lower
flight levels are forecast to continue into the overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  61  80  64 /  90  20  20  70
FSM   73  64  83  69 / 100  40  30  50
MLC   73  62  81  67 /  90  10  20  40
BVO   69  57  80  59 /  90  20  20  80
FYV   73  59  80  65 / 100  40  30  70
BYV   70  60  80  65 /  90  50  30  70
MKO   69  60  80  67 / 100  30  20  60
MIO   69  60  80  64 /  90  40  20  80
F10   70  61  80  67 / 100  20  20  50
HHW   72  63  79  69 /  90  10  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...07