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000
FXUS64 KTSA 190902
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
402 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The cold front at the surface had exited Southeast Oklahoma early
this morning...while the front at 850-mb resided along a line from
Pittsburg county to Madison county. This was noted by the band of
thicker cloud cover from southwest to northeast along/near the
Pittsburg to Madison county line. This boundary is progged to sag
slightly farther southeast this morning and remain across
Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas this afternoon. Elevated
frontogenetic forcing may allow for a few rain showers across
Southeast Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas. Instability should
remain south of the Red River with the surface frontal
boundary...though steep mid-level lapse rate suggest that thunder
potential is non-zero with any shower that may develop. With
expected isolated potential coverage...for now will keep PoPs just
below mentionable criteria for today.

With the northerly winds and cloud cover across the southern half
of the CWA...high temps in the 60s are forecast for the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

This evening through tonight a surface boundary is expected to set
up along/near Interstate 40...while at the same time the 850-mb
frontal boundary remains in the region and a shortwave/vort max
approaches. Thus...shower and thunderstorm chances increase along
and south of the surface boundary this evening and become likely
overnight tonight as the vort max lifts east northeast into the
region. Again...the greater instability through tonight remains
south of the Red River and will continue with chance thunder near
the Red River and slight chance thunder up to the surface
boundary near I-40.

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Saturday and then taper
off Saturday night from northwest to southeast as the weak
shortwave slides through the CWA. Greater thunder chances will
remain along and south of I-40...with rain chances expanding over
Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas as the wave
nears/moves through. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across far
Southeast Oklahoma with this activity. With the movement of the
shortwave...the surface boundary is expected to slide southeast of
the CWA by early Sunday morning. In the wake of the departing
wave/boundary...cloud cover is forecast to scatter out with mostly
clear skies by mid/late afternoon Sunday. Rain chances help keep
temps cool for Saturday...though Sunday into the start of next
week a warming trend returns. A secondary shortwave is forecast to
move southeast through the region Sunday night...though with
limited moisture...the passage of this wave is expected to remain
dry.

Southerly winds return Monday ahead of another cold front progged
to move into the region Tuesday afternoon/evening and exit the CWA
early Wednesday morning. The southern portion of a lead vort max
looks to slide through Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
Monday night...which combined with increasing warm advection and a
30-40KT low level jet...shower and thunderstorm chances develop
late Monday night into Tuesday. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms remain over parts of the CWA Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the frontal boundary crosses the region.

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances remain for the second
half of the work week...with the greater potential looking toward
the end of the week as another shortwave and frontal boundary
approach from the west. Ahead of the late week wave...gusty
southerly winds return which will aid in the transport of low
level moisture back into the region. Increasing instability during
this time period could create limited severe potentials late week.
This will continue to be monitored over the next several days.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Low clouds will continue shift slowly south overnight as a drier air-
mass filters into the region behind cold front. VFR conditions
expected across NE OK around 09Z and at NW AR TAF sites around 12Z.
850 mb front stalls across southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas
with MVFR ceilings persisting through much of the day. Otherwise, gusty
northeast winds expected in most areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  48  63  45 /   0  20  30  20
FSM   69  51  60  47 /  10  40  60  30
MLC   68  52  57  46 /  10  80  70  60
BVO   66  43  63  42 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   67  47  60  42 /   0  20  20  20
BYV   66  47  61  43 /   0  10  20  10
MKO   68  50  60  46 /   0  40  40  20
MIO   65  44  62  42 /   0  10  20  10
F10   67  50  58  46 /   0  50  50  40
HHW   66  54  56  47 /  10  80  90  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...12