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000
FXUS65 KTWC 162005
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
105 PM MST Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring dry conditions and a strong
warming trend into next week. A weak passing weather system will
bring breezy conditions on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...There is a weak trough passing over the region that
gave cooler morning temperatures and a gentle warming trend for
the rest of the day. Over the next several days, the weak
troughiness will be replaced with a short ridge starting tomorrow.
This ridge will bring about a warming trend for Southeast Arizona
with temperatures climbing up into the low 90s for areas Tucson
west and mid-to-upper 80s east of Tucson.

The temperature trend will slowly rise through the rest of the
weekend and into the new week. Ensemble models show a weak and
fairly quick weather system moving through the region on Friday.
Expect some breezy conditions later on Friday. That weather
system will knock temperatures a few degrees down, but only for a
day. With that, the temperatures will continue its slow climb of
4-10 degrees above seasonal normal through at least next week.
Currently, there is a 50 percent chance of hitting 95 degrees in
Tucson on Monday. Southeast Arizona is getting into the typical
dry and warming phase of April.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/00Z.
Mostly SKC through the forecast period. Light northwesterly winds
today become very light and terrain driven tonight through Wednesday
morning. Winds turn westerly Wednesday afternoon but remain under 12
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry with a strong warming trend across SE AZ into next week. Minimum
relative humidity values generally below 15% in valleys, dropping to
single digits at times. Typical diurnal wind trends most of the
week, with a breezy Friday afternoon as a weak dry weather system
pushes across.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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