808
FXUS63 KUNR 140725
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
125 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Unsettled this week with periodic chances for showers and
 thunderstorms, best chances today, esp along and south of I90.

-A few strong storms are possible this afternoon and evening in
 south central SD.

-Seasonal temps most of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 121 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Unsettled NW flow can be expected through the period. Each
shortwave crossing the region will have the ability to support
isold-sct shra/ts as a frontal boundary wavers over the region.
However, the best overlap of moisture and forcing will be with
today`s system. Overall, moisture will continue to be limited as
the GOMEX remains closed to the region, leaving the main moisture
source as leftover PAC moisture. Any appreciable rain will be
localized with most places seeing a few hundredths or less given
lack of deep moisture and convective nature of precip. Compact
shortwave will advect east today, supporting a good chance of
showers and storms across the southern half of the FA. Best
lift/diurnal forcing from heating will occur from the BH through
scentral SD where the highest coverage of showers is expected.
With CAPE approaching 1000 J/KG across scentral SD under steep ll
lapse rates (ahead of the sfc trough), expect a few storms will
have the potential to produce strong wind gusts, possibly over 50
knots. Otherwise, most storms will remain tame. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible with some of the heavier cells as
storms will be slow moving. Another weaker backside impulse may
bring some additional showers to the SW half tonight, otherwise,
things will begin to dry out some Wed, with only slight chances of
showers during the day. Things trend drier later in the week,
with continued low chances for showers each day. Expect most areas
will remain dry toward the end of the week, with more isolated
convection. Overall, temps will be seasonal with highs generally
in the 60s/70s, with warmer temps returning Thur and Fri. Models
are still indicating a cool down this weekend, but consensus on
the degree of cooling and duration is lacking.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued At 1037 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Isolated to scattered showers will be possible tonight. Then
showers and thunderstorms will increase Tuesday morning and
continue through the day. LCL MVFR conditions are possible with
the stronger showers and storms, otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...13