Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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737
FXUS61 KCLE 202013
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
313 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure centered over the southeastern
states will slowly move off the coast this weekend. Low
pressure from Colorado will track to the western Great Lakes on
Monday with the associated cold front sweeping across the local
area Monday night. High pressure will build in from the west
through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
It`s ended up being a fairly nice day as skies have remained
partly sunny and temps have climbed into the lower 40s with
winds lighter than Friday. Have been watching the area of
stratus approaching from the southwest all day. It`s finally
spreading into Ohio and will move across the local area this
evening. Warm air advection and moistening of low levels will
continue. A strong inversion is expected to remain in place
through late tomorrow with very dry air continuing above the
inversion. As winds lessen overnight we will likely see some
sprinkles or areas of drizzle develop under the inversion. The
inversion will remain too strong to allow anything more than
that. By midday Sunday only the southern end of the area has a
legitimate chance for measurable precip. Already had small
chance pops in the forecast and that seems appropriate. Took a
close look at boundary layer temps and lows should remain above
freezing tonight so there is little threat for freezing or
frozen precip. More of the same is expected on Sunday. It will
be a gray and warm day with areas of light precip. The inversion
is forecast to begin to lift tomorrow night and we should
finally be able to develop some more substantial precip
overnight. Even then QPF amounts should be under a tenth of an
inch. Have bumped precip chances up to likely over NW OH which
will be closest to the surface low moving over the western
lakes. Temps will be similar to what was in the previous
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Not too much has changed with regards to the sensible weather and
the forecast for the system moving across the Great Lakes Monday
night/Tuesday. One round of rain will move across the area between
Monday afternoon and Monday night. QPF amounts look similar too and
expect around a half inch with upwards of three quarters of an inch
across far eastern OH/nw PA. Colder air arrives Tuesday with a
transition of rain to snow. There is still some timing differences
with the ECMWF the slowest and also differences to the degree of
cold air for mid week. Have taken a blended route with this forecast
which is similar to the GFSENS. Have snow shower chances continuing
primarily for the snowbelt into Tuesday night with the cyclonic
flow, but by Wednesday significant drying arrives and precip should
be just about over. Have gotten a good look at the lake today with
the clear skies. There are decent areas of open water from
Huron/Vermilion east to Cleveland and along nearshore waters to the
east end. This could provide some lake enhancement but with marginal
H8 temperatures, contribution will be low Tuesday night. GFS is the
coldest with a pool of -14C. Temperatures running warmest in the
slowest ECMWF for Monday and as was the case with precip timing,
have taken a blended route. Steady or slowly falling temperatures
Tuesday, starting out in the upper 30s/near 40 will fall back to the
mid 20s for Tuesday night. Highs near freezing/near normal for
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There still may be a few light shsn or flurries for a while Wed
night in the snowbelt until high pressure moves over the area.

High pressure, dry wx and near normal temps will start out Thu with
temps warming above normal for Fri and Fri night. The relative
warmth should continue Sat but moisture should be spreading into the
area along with a chc for shra in the west due to a system
approaching from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Just some high clouds across the area right now but an area of
stratus continues to approach from the west. This area is
currently visible on satellite just entering IN. Will time
these clouds into the area. They should reach FDY around sunset
and then spread across the remainder of the area early this
evening. It is possible that this area could expand and arrive
sooner so will have to monitor. CIGS and VSBYs will slowly
decrease overnight with IFR conditions likely by daybreak and
LIFR possible by the end of the taf period. Gusty S to SW winds
will begin to diminish after sunset and by the end of the period
will be 5 knots or less. Gusts to 20 knots are possible through
sunset.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR much of the time Sunday through Tuesday. Gusty
winds Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest flow on the lake will relax some tonight as high pressure
pushes across the lake from the southeast U.S. Low pressure will
move across the central Great Lakes Monday night/early Tuesday
taking an occluded front and a secondary cold front across the lake
Tuesday. Southerly flow will increase Monday, shift to the southwest
and increase for Tuesday to 20 to 25 knots. West flow follows for
Tuesday night. A trough hangs back across the lakes Wednesday, but
high pressure builds overhead for Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Oudeman



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