Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 290005
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
805 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017
A warm front will develop over the lower Ohio Valley tonight.
This warm front should be north of the area by Sunday morning.
Another strong low pressure system will develop over the
Mississippi Valley on Sunday and force a cold front east across
the area on Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Difficult to time the periods of rain for the night. Focused on
the area of steadier rain/thunderstorms moving northeast out of
IL/IN and left the remainder of the night somewhere around
50/50 with slightly higher chances across the southern third of
counties. Also tweaked evening temperatures with this early
Previous discussion...Showers continue to advance quickly
northeast at this time well in advance of the warm front. GFS
model appears to be the only model picking up on this activity.
Another surge of moisture will push northeast ahead of the warm
frontal boundary this evening and then across the rest of the
area overnight. Models are suggesting some instability will push
northeast into the area overnight. Cape values begin to
increase with time to support potential for thunderstorm
activity. Potential exists for some pretty good rainfall
overnight with the activity moving northeast. Some guidance
suggests over an inch of rain overnight but will trim it back to
0.75" or so in the southwest where the heaviest rain is
expected. The night looks like it is going to be a wet one as
warm frontal boundary takes its time moving north toward the
area. Northerly flow over the lake will battle lake shore as
light southerly flow tries to hold on through the night. Lake
shore areas will remain cool with the onshore flow while areas
away from the lake should remain mild through the night.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Warm front still struggles to push north and will likely take
until Sunday morning until it actually reaches our forecast
area. Most of the moisture associated with the boundary appears
it will lift slowly north of the area during the day Saturday
into Saturday night. Once again, another chance for some soaking
localized rainfall expected in any thunderstorms across the
area. Instability still supports chance of thunderstorm threat
so will keep a mention going through the day Saturday into
Saturday night. Northeast flow will keep area on the cooler side
for temperatures Saturday, especially near the lake. Once
moisture lifts north of the lake late Saturday night, forecast
area arrives in the true warm sector and this should allow
temperatures to climb well into the 70s again during the day.
Cold front pushes toward the area and is expected to arrive
during the day Monday. Forecast area will remain in the warm
sector Sunday into Monday afternoon. As cold front arrives
Monday, can`t rule out the potential for some severe
thunderstorms. Wrap around moisture around the upper level low
will keep a chance for some showers through Monday night. Cold
air advection returns once again Monday night.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper trough will dominate the pattern Tue thru Fri leading to
chances for shra much of the time. Temps will be below normal and
maybe even a threat for frost one of the nights if clouds clear out
more than expected and winds become light.
.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Large area of showers and thunderstorms spreading from Indiana
into western Ohio will continue northeast across the area
through approximately 06Z. Ceilings are starting off VFR at all
sites and will take several hours to decline with occasional
MVFR/IFR visibilities in the heavier showers. Eventually a
frontal boundary aloft will strengthen overhead later tonight
with ceilings declining to MVFR and eventually IFR where they
will remain for much of the day on Saturday.
A break in the showers is expected from roughly 08-13Z before
another round of showers and possibly thunderstorms returns
through midday on Saturday. Coverage of thunderstorms is
uncertain for this next round so left out of the terminals for
now but these may need to be added.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR at times in showers and thunderstorms Sat night
through Mon then just sct shra Tue and Wed.
Fronts north and south of the lake will tend to merge just south
shore of the lake by late tonight then drift a little south into Sat
night before lifting north across the lake Sun. A deep low will move
ne thru the central part of the lakes Mon night into Tue pulling a
series of cold fronts across Lake Erie Mon thru Wed. Increasing ne
winds could produce near SCA conditions by Sat night before
diminishing Sun. The deep low will lead to increasing south winds
Mon that may reach SCA levels then colder air spreading over the
lake Tue may lead to near gale force conditions which will gradually
diminish Wed into Wed night.