Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 142351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
751 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING AS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THEY REMAIN BROKEN
IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS NE OHIO/NW PA. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING. WILL TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK AT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOPED LAST NIGHT
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION BUT I SUSPECT THAT THE ADDITION OF LAKE
ERIE MOISTURE AIDED IN THAT PROCESS AND THE WIND SHOULD COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT SO LESS CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING.
THERE WERE ALSO MID CLOUDS IN THE WARM ADVECTION LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE MID
CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR FROST IN SOME OF THE COLDER OUTLYING
AREAS OF EXTREME INLAND NE OH/NW PA. WILL MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST
BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. LOWS ELSEWHERE
NEAR GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE (40S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY
SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES. A SECOND SHORT WAVE
IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. YOU END UP WITH A
SQUEEZE PLAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS EXPANDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SHORT WAVE. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEGIN TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN...STILL BELOW NORMAL AND ONE
OF THE WARMER DAYS WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK.

THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY TO END THE THREAT. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN
ACROSS NW OHIO...NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT MUCH SUNSHINE NE OH/NW PA.
HIGHS INT EH LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS
INLAND NW PA.

CHILLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR WE MAY HAVE TO MENTION ISOLATED
FROST AGAIN. NOT SURE IF THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AGAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.   LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.   THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY.  AS HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.   BOTH MODELS MOVE THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH TIMING SIMILAR THE TRACK VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE ECMWF
TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT NEAR THE END. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

SOME CIRRUS WILL BE MOVING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...PATCHY MVFR
BR POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. OTHERWISE ON MONDAY
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE AIRMASS IS
FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE SOMETIME FOR THE AIRMASS TO SATURATE AND
THE RAIN TO START. EVENTUALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MONDAY
EVENING IN RAIN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER LAKE ERIE.  MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
SHIFTING  EAST TOMORROW...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET....JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND
REMAINS IN DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB






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