Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 230534
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS OHIO. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. HOWEVER WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION IT LOOKS AS IF LOWS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO INLAND NW
PA WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THE THINNEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60`S UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH TRANSLATES EAST AND THE
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
PRIMED FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AND
DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60`S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US DRAWS GLFMX MOISTURE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED OMEGA...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND FAIRLY UNORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS MAY
LEND ITSELF TO LONGER LIVED PULSE STORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE 80`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN TEXAS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...FLOW INTO OHIO WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GLFMX WITH
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS GENERAL PATTERS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE MILD TO WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD. VFR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH
CLOUDS. LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KERI AND THEN
KCLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE TONIGHT IS CALMING THE WINDS AND
WAVES SO A SCA IS NO LONGER NEEDED. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
LIGHT SATURDAY. NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AND THE HIGH JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010>013-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS/TK






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