Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 020157
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
857 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE
CANCELLED THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ONLY A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN. WE LOSE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE FOR ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING AND THEREFORE NO MENTION. TOWARD
MORNING A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS AND MAY BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INTO NE OH/NW PA AROUND 6AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THOSE CHANCES.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. TOLEDO HAS ALREADY HAD A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
AND THEY HAVE DROPPED TO THE MID TEENS. NOT EXPECTING THEM TO GO
MUCH FURTHER WITH UPSTREAM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH BLANKETING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. BREAKS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN TOWARD MORNING FOR NW OH. THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST WILL
KEEP LOWS THERE FROM AROUND 20 INTO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. THE REGION SHOULD THEN HAVE A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FREEZING RAIN COULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY
THE INLAND COOLER VALLEYS. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE WARMER AIR AND RAIN DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR AREA RIVERS BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY JUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE
REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE NEAR
ANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP UP WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. BRIEF CLEARING OR
AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. WARMER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE MID 30S MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL QPF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THE
TUESDAY AND THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PACK LESS OF A PUNCH AS IT PUSHES BACK SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING THE MAX AREA OF QPF TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MAKE SURE THAT HIGHER RAIN RATES DO NOT
CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD NEAR 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH COOLING
TAKING PLACE LATE. THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE BRIEF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES CLEAR.

DRY TO END THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING IFR AND
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN ITS WAKE ALTHOUGH THERE
IS AN AREA OF VFR WORKING ACROSS NWRN OHIO THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING
HRRR/MAV COMBO AM EXPECTING VFR IN NWRN OHIO TO FILL BACK IN WITH
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHILE IFR REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. FROM
KERI TO KCLE TO KMFD AND KFDY AM EXPECTING ANY IFR TO LIFT TO MVFR
AND CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT...LIFTING TO VFR AFTER AROUND 08Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MONDAY WILL EXPECT NON VFR
IN SERN TERMINALS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC/LOMBARDY




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