Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282133
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
333 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm conditions are spreading over the Borderland today
and will persist through Friday, with highs warming back above
normal. A cool front moves in Saturday, bringing some moisture
back to the area and creating a chance of thunderstorms for the
weekend. This moisture will persist on through the Fourth of July,
with a slight chance of thunderstorms continuing. High
temperatures through the Fourth will continue slightly above
normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Well, the drying of our CWA has indeed happened, somewhat faster
than yesterday`s models were showing. Dewpoints now down into the
20s most areas with west Texas zones still clinging to the 30s. At
any rate to dry and stable now for any convection. Quick look at
visible satellite shows area cloud free. Only CU able to form is
east of the CWA where higher moisture exists. The dry conditions
should last through Friday, with high temperatures once again
warming above normal in the dry air.

Saturday and Sunday...back door cool front still moving in Friday
night will moisten the CWA back up. Probably too late for Friday
night convection but expect Saturday and Sunday to be fairly
active. Modest MUCAPES and LI`s develop Saturday, mostly east of
the Rio Grande Valley. Decent directional shear, but not much
speed shear in airmass, so though a few storms could approach
severe, don`t expect severe storms to develop. PWs just above
normal suggest some local flooding possible with slow moving
storms.

Monday through Wednesday...moisture and modest instability
continue across the area though perhaps a bit less than the
weekend. So expect thunderstorms to continue, though mostly in the
isolated category.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 29/00Z-30/00Z...
Drier west flow sfc and aloft working its way into the CWA. SKY/WX:
SKC TO FEW100 AND THIN SCT-BKN250. WINDS 16Z-03Z WSW-ENE 15G25KTS
AND 03Z-16Z WNW 12KTS.

 &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air has moved in from the west which will put an end to the
showers and thunderstorms for at least a few days. Temperatures will
be warming back to around 100 degrees for many lowland locations
through early next week. Relative humidities will be falling back
into the upper single digits to lower teens. There will be a little
surge in moisture going into the weekend and early next week with
isolated thunderstorms returning. Winds will be occasionally breezy
the next couple of days and again early next week which will bring
about near critical conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 77 101  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           73  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              70  99  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              68  98  68  99 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              50  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   70  98  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             63  92  63  95 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  67  99  68 100 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               68  98  66 100 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      77 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               70 102  71 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            75 102  75 103 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              72  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  76 101  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            72 100  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          73  99  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           66  99  65 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   68 100  68 101 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                71 100  71 102 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 55  88  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               52  88  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                54  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 56  93  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               64  96  64  98 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               64 100  63 100 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            51  92  53  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  62  94  63  97 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   52  97  55  99 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              51  95  54  98 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 63  95  63  98 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  68  99  68 101 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 67  98  67 100 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          69  97  68 100 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              65  94  66  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Novlan



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.