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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192132
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
232 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Freezing temperatures should occur in some of the lowlands of
Southern New Mexico in the early morning hours Monday. Otherwise,
strong and persistent high pressure aloft over the Southwestern
United States will deflect Pacific storm systems to our north. As
a result the Borderland should see mostly dry and sunny weather
with temperatures mainly above normal again into midweek. The
Thanksgiving holiday weekend should see a continuance of this
trend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions along with
mostly light winds.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Again, a strong, large and persistent ridge aloft over the
southwestern United States (perhaps a harbinger of the slowly
evolving negative ENSO over the central Pacific ocean) will
dominate our synoptic pattern this week. This feature will
provide a most effective deflector of the stream of Pacific storm
systems keeping them well to our north. We will continue to
experience moderate to strong WNW winds aloft keeping us dry with
above normal temps. As these Pacific storms systems ride up and
over the ridge occasionally one will tail into New Mexico as will
be the case by next Tuesday and Wednesday. This will be another
one of our dry "side door fronts" shifting our surface winds to
the north northeast and dropping our temperatures about 3 deg or
so (sill above normal for this time of year). So far our temps are
lagging the climatological normal about 2 to 3 weeks. Thus a
period of unusually prolonged quiet and warm weather will continue
with no significant impacts expected through next weekend.
Tonight the combination of clear skies...light winds and very low
humidity (dew points in the lowlands of New Mexico west of the Rio
Grande will be in the single digits to teens) allowing for max
radiative cooling. Thus freeze warnings (have moved south) and
will be in effect for southwest Otero, Dona Ana, and Luna
counties over much of the lower elevations.

Through Friday our CWA will be located between a high amplitude
ridge just west of the continental divide and a deep trough to
the east. This will result in a dry subsiding north to northwest
flow aloft with the subsidence and abundant sunshine producing a
slow warming trend. Thus by Tuesday afternoon high temperatures
will be about 10 degrees above normal. A very weak (side door)
cold front mentioned above will move to the southwest through the
area late Tuesday but should only cool temperatures a few degrees
on Wednesday.

The ridge moves into New Mexico by Saturday with the associated
subsidence and sunshine sustaining above normal temperatures next
weekend. Winds will be mostly light through the seven day period
as low and mid level gradients remain weak especially for late
November.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid 20/00Z-21/00Z... P6SM SKC-SCT250 through period.
Winds generally light and variable through 10/18Z...increasing from
240-280 at 5-15KTS thereafter through 00Z Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Following a seasonably chilly finish to the weekend, temperatures
will gradually warm back well above normal over the coming work week
as high pressure aloft slowly rebuilds over the southwest states. As
the ridge builds, a very weak upper level disturbance track
southeast over the four corners early Tuesday.  Feature will carry a
weak side door cold front down early Tuesday from north to south
across our zones.  This will hold our warming trend back a bit for
Wed, however highs should run roughly 9 to 15 degrees above normal
by weeks end. Winds will be light, with west and northwest
developing on some afternoons.

Min RH Monday will range from the high teens lowlands...to low teens
mountains.  This will flip for Tuesday. Values climb a few percent
Wednesday with min RH to the middle 20`s for the Sacs...climbing
further Thursday to the low 30s Sacs and upper teens to middle 20s
elsewhere.  Mixing heights will remain below 7000 ft through mid
week, but may climb above by weeks end as the ridge continues to
expand across the region from the west.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 37  70  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           35  69  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              31  69  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              29  64  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              28  53  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   30  68  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             31  65  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  30  71  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               37  70  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      38  70  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               33  71  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            39  73  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              34  66  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  38  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            33  70  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          32  68  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           28  68  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   30  71  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                34  72  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               32  67  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 28  61  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               28  60  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                28  58  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 22  65  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               30  69  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               29  68  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            23  66  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  29  67  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   25  70  33  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              27  67  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 30  69  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  36  73  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 34  72  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          37  73  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              39  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM MST Monday for NMZ407-410-411-
     413.

TX...None.
&&

$$

20/22 NOVLAN / TRIPOLI



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