Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 162152
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
352 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED DRY AND A LITTLE COOLER FOR THURSDAY...AS A WEAK BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TEMPORARILY BUILDS OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING
THE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO
APPROACH OUR REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT LATER SUNDAY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND A FEW LOWLAND AREAS EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE STAND TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
TEMPERATURES WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST W/V IMAGERY POINTS TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES.
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS NOTED MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE AND
IS NOW OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA. DEVELOPMENT OF CIRRUS SHIELD OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AHEAD OF THE WAVE...OUTLINES ITS PRESENCE NICELY.
WHILE WINDS FOR MOST AREAS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WINDS
WILL LIKELY STAY UP ALONG EAST SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS WITH
GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH A GOOD BET. TROUGH WILL SEND A WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN ONLY A
SUBTLE COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY. LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEAR
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BUT FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL SEE HIGHS ROUGHLY 2-4 DEGREES COOLER.
FRONT WILL INTRODUCE MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE JUST BEGINNING TO BECOME EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...REMAINS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN AND PROGRESS EAST STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BECOME A CLOSED LOW AND BEGIN TO SPREAD INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HIGH
CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING AS IT APPROACHES.
A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY AND LIFT OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -3 AND
TOTAL TOTALS OF 50 OR GREATER ARE FORECAST. BACKING LL WINDS INTO
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO INTRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA. ALOFT...ROUGHLY 3-4 DEGREES OF H5 COOLING IS
FORECAST. THIS WILL OCCUR IN A VERY DRY ANTECEDENT ATMOSPHERE.
THIS SUPPORTS HIGH BASED CONVECTION...WITH GUSTY DOWN BURST
WINDS...DRY LIGHTNING WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL OF SHORT DURATION
AS THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW WEAKENS BACK INTO AN OPEN WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES AREAS
OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY RETURNING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 17/00Z-18/00Z... P6SM FEW-SCT120-150 SCT-
BKN200-250 THRU 15Z...THEN SKC-250. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 15-22KTS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 10-15KTS EXCEPT AT KELP WHERE PERIOD
OF 27020G30KTS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 04Z-08Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND BEHIND WEAK FRONT TO E THEN S TO SE AT 10-15KTS AFT 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT ON EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES WHERE THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
AND SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY AND
WILL REMAIN SO INTO FRIDAY WITH A DECENT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM WEST. DRY AND AT TIMES WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 56  81  58  80  56 /   0   0   0   0  20
SIERRA BLANCA           48  80  48  78  49 /   0   0   0  10  30
LAS CRUCES              51  80  53  76  51 /   0   0   0   0  20
ALAMOGORDO              48  77  49  76  52 /   0   0   0   0  20
CLOUDCROFT              35  55  35  55  35 /   0   0   0  10  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  79  52  76  51 /   0   0   0  10  20
SILVER CITY             44  75  46  69  45 /   0   0   0  10  20
DEMING                  43  82  46  77  46 /   0   0   0   0  20
LORDSBURG               46  82  50  76  47 /   0   0   0  10  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      55  80  56  78  55 /   0   0   0   0  20
DELL CITY               44  75  43  73  48 /   0   0   0  10  30
FORT HANCOCK            52  85  55  84  53 /   0   0   0  10  30
LOMA LINDA              47  75  47  71  49 /   0   0   0   0  20
FABENS                  52  83  53  80  52 /   0   0   0   0  20
SANTA TERESA            51  81  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          57  79  60  76  56 /   0   0   0   0  20
JORNADA RANGE           41  80  45  76  44 /   0   0   0   0  20
HATCH                   46  80  49  75  47 /   0   0   0   0  20
COLUMBUS                52  81  55  76  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               47  80  48  78  51 /   0   0   0   0  20
MAYHILL                 40  64  38  64  39 /   0   0   0  20  30
MESCALERO               36  66  36  65  39 /   0   0   0  20  30
TIMBERON                36  66  35  64  38 /   0   0   0  10  30
WINSTON                 43  74  47  68  43 /   0   0   0  10  20
HILLSBORO               49  77  50  72  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
SPACEPORT               46  77  48  73  46 /   0   0   0   0  20
LAKE ROBERTS            39  74  42  67  40 /   0   0   0  10  20
HURLEY                  44  77  48  71  44 /   0   0   0  10  20
CLIFF                   41  82  46  75  41 /   0   0   0  10  20
MULE CREEK              31  79  35  70  33 /   0   0   0  10  20
FAYWOOD                 45  76  48  70  45 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANIMAS                  49  83  52  77  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
HACHITA                 45  81  46  75  46 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          50  83  51  75  49 /   0   0   0   0  20
CLOVERDALE              45  79  48  72  44 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ110>112.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055.

&&

$$

20/26





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