Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 032138
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
238 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong storm system continues to track across the region to our
south keeping moisture and instability over the Borderland. Cold
air has also pushed into the area behind a cold front. This will
keep the chances for showers in the forecast for the area through
the night. Snow levels should stay just above the deserts for all
buy far eastern areas. Precipitation will end from west to east
through the evening and overnight hours as the system slides east
and allows drier air to move in from the west. Sunday most of the
region will be dry with continued cool conditions. Monday and
Tuesday deep westerly flow allows for area wide warming. Another
sharp cold front barrels in mid week to cool the region to below
normal levels for the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor satellite imagery shows the cut off low that is our
current precip-producing storm system is still well to our SW
over S. Central Sonora. Models continue to track this storm system
east towards Chihuahua, MX tonight and then towards the Big Bend
Sunday. The conveyor belt of deep-layer moisture has been shoved
well east, but there remains plenty of mid/lower-level moisture
in place with the system as the cyclonic circulation pulls it in
from the south off the Gulf of California. This moisture continues
to wrap over the region. The limiting factor with this system from
this point forward will be the limited (or lack of) dynamic
forcing. Thus precip. generating lift will be waning. Due to the
systems track being so far south, the cold pool and PVA is well to
our south. In addition, the diffluence aloft is pushing east. Thus
just a bit of minor upslope flow for the east faces across the
CWFA appears to be the main forcing.

Overnight lowland temperatures and dewpoints should hovering just
above the freezing mark for nearly all of the lowlands. Thus the
lowlands appear to be out of the risk for significant snow with
the exception of a mix with no accumulation overnight/Sunday
morning. We have cancelled all the snow advisories for west zones
and downgraded the Sacs from a warning to an advisory for the
possibility of another 2-4 inches. However even those numbers
appear high and isolated. The next two night may produce a bit of
fog across the region over the lowlands. Where winds can die off
and skies can clear, temperatures will drop to near dewpoints.
Locations with wet ground will be susceptible to fog formation.

Sunday the system begins to pull away and precip. chances continue
to contract to the east with only E Hudspeth and Otero having
POPs...and dry elsewhere. Winds will remain E so despite
increasing sunshine, still expecting cool temperatures with high
a bit below normal.

Monday and Tuesday will bring benign weather to the region as deep
and dry westerly flow returns. Temperatures will rebound into the
60s across the lowlands.

Wednesday and Thursday we see increased clouds as a shortwave
disturbance approaches from the west and a strong Canadian cold
front pushes in from the northeast. We might see a brief chance of
mainly light snow showers Wed night/Thu morn. Otherwise the region
continues in dry and chilly weather going into next weekend.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 04/00Z-05/00Z...
Improving conditions expected from NW to SE through period.
For areas NW of a KALM-KDMN line expect FEW-SCT040-060 SCT-BKN120 to
start period with isolated -SHRA lowland -SHSN BKN040 in mountains
above 6000ft. Skies gradually becoming SKC-FEW050-070 by 06Z with
precipitation ending. Areas SE of line will see SCT-BKN040-060
BKN080-100 with scattered -SHRA lowlands and -SHSN above 6000ft
mainly through 09Z but expect clouds to remain around through much
of the period with SCT-BKN050-070. Winds across areas will be N to
NE 5-15kts.

26-Grzywacz

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper low responsible for precipitation across the region over the
last day will move out of Northern Mexico on Sunday but
precipitation should end tonight. Dry northwest flow will move in
for much of the upcoming forecast period.  Temperatures will warm to
slightly above normal by Monday but cool back down by Wednesday and
especially Thursday as a back door cold front moves in. Relative
humidities will remain above 20-25 percent through the week with
occasional breezy conditions.

26-Grzywacz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 36  53  34  61 /  20   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           32  48  34  57 /  50  30   0   0
Las Cruces              33  52  31  59 /  20   0   0   0
Alamogordo              32  54  30  57 /  20   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              19  37  23  42 /  30  20   0   0
Truth or Consequences   31  53  29  58 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City             26  44  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  31  54  28  60 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg               32  54  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      37  53  36  60 /  20   0   0   0
Dell City               31  51  31  61 /  50  30   0   0
Fort Hancock            33  53  35  62 /  50  20   0   0
Loma Linda              32  46  33  55 /  30   0   0   0
Fabens                  32  53  32  61 /  30   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            34  52  33  60 /  20   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          34  53  34  59 /  20   0   0   0
Jornada Range           32  54  28  59 /  20   0   0   0
Hatch                   33  53  30  59 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                34  54  32  62 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande               33  53  32  58 /  20   0   0   0
Mayhill                 23  41  23  51 /  50  20   0   0
Mescalero               23  42  24  49 /  40  20   0   0
Timberon                24  41  25  48 /  40  20   0   0
Winston                 20  43  20  54 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro               27  45  25  58 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport               32  52  29  57 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            18  47  16  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  25  48  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   28  50  22  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              27  51  22  57 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 29  50  26  56 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                  32  55  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 32  54  27  63 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          31  52  27  61 /  10   0   0   0
Cloverdale              31  48  29  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM MST Sunday for NMZ414>416.

TX...None.
&&

$$

14/26


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