Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 200906
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
306 AM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
We will continue to see a good chance for rain today and tonight.
Heavy rain is still a possibility so a flash flood watch continues
to be in affect. Today`s high temperatures will be well below
average. For the first part of next week we will see a chance for
rain each day with temperatures a little below average. For the
middle of this week through Friday we will see a little better
chance for rain with temperatures continuing to run a little below
average


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Abundant tropical moisture in place, check. Approaching weak
upper level trough, check. The ingredients are in place for a wet
and rainy and potential floody day. Last night`s balloon sounding
had a precipitable water (PW) value of around 1.25 and I`m sure
this morning`s balloon run will be even higher value. All this
moisture will allow the thunderstorms that do develop to be very
efficient at producing rain. If storms move over the same
location, rainfall totals could quickly pile up leading to some
flash flooding, so our flash flood watch continues in affect
through Monday morning.

By Monday afternoon the weak upper level trough will be to our
north, but we will still have plenty of moisture over the area.
The threat of flash flooding will back off, but we will still see
isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. For
Tuesday and Wednesday the upper level ridge to our east will build
west over New Mexico. This will help lower our rain chances
some, but with plenty of moisture trapped under the ridge we will
continue to see isolated lowland and scattered mountain
thunderstorms both days. For Thursday and Friday both the GFS and
ECMWF move the upper level trough to our west, up and into the
Great Basin. The GFS has the system kicking our rain chances up a
notch as it lifts out for Thursday night into Friday, but the
ECMWF keeps our rain chances in the isolated category. For now
I`ll go with a compromise between the two solutions. For the end
of the week into the weekend both the GFS and ECMWF move the upper
level ridge over the Great Basin, initially this will pull
moisture down from the north and keep our rain chances going, but
if the ridge stays in this position for very long we will start
to dry out by the end of the weekend.

Taking a quick look at the our temperatures, we will see today`s
highs running 5 to 8 degrees below average, but then as we see
lower rain chances for the start of the work week, we will see our
highs creep up a few degrees, but they will still be a degree or
two below average.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 20/12Z-21/12Z
Looks like a cloudy and wet kind of day. We will see a ceiling for
much of the day. It will be variable but should stay in the VFR
range BKN070 for most of the day. We will see scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. In some of the thunderstorms
we could see some MVFR and even some isolated IFR ceilings and
visibilities. The rain could be heavy at times which could affect
airport operations. We will see lower rain chances for the start
of the work week. Storm movement will be from the south to the
north.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Lots of moisture in place and an approaching upper level storm
system will help generate numerous showers and thunderstorms
today and tonight. A few locations may see very heavy rains and
there is a threat for flash flooding. For the first of next week
we will see less of a chances for rain, before rain chances ramp
back up for mid week into the end of the week. Winds for the next
seven days will stay below critical levels and min RH`s will stay
above 30% for most locations through Friday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 84  66  89  71 /  60  50  30  20
Sierra Blanca           85  64  88  67 /  60  40  40  20
Las Cruces              81  62  88  67 /  60  50  30  20
Alamogordo              81  62  86  67 /  70  50  40  30
Cloudcroft              63  48  67  53 /  70  80  50  30
Truth or Consequences   82  62  89  67 /  60  50  40  20
Silver City             77  56  83  61 /  60  60  40  40
Deming                  82  61  89  66 /  60  40  30  20
Lordsburg               83  61  88  67 /  60  60  30  20
West El Paso Metro      83  65  89  71 /  70  50  30  20
Dell City               87  66  90  69 /  60  50  30  20
Fort Hancock            87  68  91  71 /  60  40  30  20
Loma Linda              79  61  84  67 /  60  50  40  20
Fabens                  85  66  90  71 /  60  50  30  20
Santa Teresa            83  64  89  70 /  70  50  30  20
White Sands HQ          81  63  87  68 /  70  60  30  30
Jornada Range           81  61  88  66 /  60  60  30  20
Hatch                   83  62  90  67 /  60  60  30  20
Columbus                83  62  88  68 /  60  40  30  20
Orogrande               82  64  88  69 /  60  50  40  20
Mayhill                 71  53  76  57 /  70  80  70  30
Mescalero               70  52  76  56 /  70  80  50  30
Timberon                70  52  75  57 /  70  80  50  30
Winston                 76  53  81  58 /  70  60  40  40
Hillsboro               79  57  86  62 /  60  60  40  30
Spaceport               82  61  88  66 /  60  60  40  30
Lake Roberts            75  51  82  56 /  70  60  30  40
Hurley                  77  56  84  61 /  60  60  40  40
Cliff                   83  56  89  62 /  60  60  40  40
Mule Creek              82  57  86  64 /  60  70  50  40
Faywood                 78  56  85  62 /  70  60  30  30
Animas                  82  60  87  66 /  60  40  30  20
Hachita                 82  60  88  66 /  60  50  30  20
Antelope Wells          81  60  88  65 /  60  50  50  20
Cloverdale              77  59  83  64 /  50  50  40  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ401>417.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

Brice



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