Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 272133
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
233 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WE`LL SEE ONE MORE WARM DRY DAY AND THEN WE WILL SEE A WET CHANGE
TO OUR WEATHER. WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINING STARTING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND LASTING ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
AREA MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF
SNOW. WHILE THE LOWLANDS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. BY
SUNDAY MORNING WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME SNOW WORK INTO THE RAIN IN THE
LOWLANDS. THE START OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS COOL...BUT DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE`VE GOT A NICE COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF US BEFORE WE SEE SOME BIG
CHANGES TO OUR WEATHER PATTERN. CURRENTLY WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DRIFTING OFF TO OUR EAST...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEST TO EAST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL
HELP MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS COME CLOSE TO OR JUST TOUCH THE 70
DEGREE MARK FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE. BUT LATE ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL
SEE THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND THIS WILL BE THE SIGNAL
THAT OUR WEATHER IS ABOUT TO CHANGE.

ON THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO PUMP
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BEGIN AN EXTENDED PRECIPITATION EVENT.
WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE AN INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN AND THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OR MORE OF
SNOW. BUT I`M GETTING A LITTLE AHEAD OF MYSELF. SNOW LEVELS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF AROUND 8 TO 9 THOUSAND
FEET. BY FRIDAY THE SNOW LEVEL WILL DROP AROUND 1K FEET...BUT
DURING THE DAY WE SEE IT RISE BACK UP BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO
AROUND 7K FEET SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDCROFT LOOKS TO GET A LOT OF
SNOW...BUT PLACES LIKE SILVER CITY MAY SEE SNOW AT NIGHT AND THEN
THINGS CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ONLY TO
SEE IT CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. LIKE I SAID FOR THE
LOWLANDS WE WILL SEE AN EXTENDED TIME OF RAIN. WE MAY SEE AN INCH
OR MORE OF RAIN...BUT IT WILL COME DOWN OVER 72 HOURS SO I`M NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT IS THE GILA
WILDERNESS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS WHERE WE MAY SEE SOME RAIN ON SNOW.
BUT RIGHT NOW WITH ONLY A MODERATE SNOW PACK CURRENTLY IN PLACE
AND SNOW LEVELS COMING DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY I`M NOT EXPECTING
MUCH RUNOFF. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR ALL THIS PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND TAKE THE
MOISTURE WITH IT. BUT BEFORE IT IS SAID AND DONE ANOTHER PUSH OF
COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY
ALLOW A RAIN SNOW MIX TO MAKE IT`S WAY DOWN TO THE LOWLANDS...BUT
AS OF NOW I`M NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN LOWLANDS BELOW 5K
FEET. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERED FROM RUN TO RUN
ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THEY MOVE IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
WOULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON RAIN VERSES SNOW. BUT FOR NOW I THINK A
RAIN SNOW MIX WILL COVER THINGS. FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WE
WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS BUT STILL COOL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED VFR: FEW040-060 SCT250. SFC WINDS NW-NE
3-7KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WAVE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND
COMBINE WITH SURFACE COLD FRONTS TO PRODUCE COOLER WEATHER BEGINNING
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MIN RH WILL RUN AROUND 30% TO
40% TUESDAY AFTERNOON DROPPING ABOUT 5% OVERALL ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 42  70  42  61  39 /   0   0   0  20  50
SIERRA BLANCA           43  70  41  57  37 /   0   0   0  20  40
LAS CRUCES              38  68  40  58  38 /   0   0   0  20  60
ALAMOGORDO              37  67  38  59  37 /   0   0   0  20  50
CLOUDCROFT              29  50  30  43  25 /   0   0   0  20  70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   40  65  39  56  37 /   0   0   0  20  60
SILVER CITY             37  66  38  56  36 /   0   0   0  20  70
DEMING                  36  69  38  59  38 /   0   0   0  20  60
LORDSBURG               37  68  39  61  38 /   0   0   0  20  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      45  70  44  61  42 /   0   0   0  20  50
DELL CITY               36  70  36  58  34 /   0   0   0  20  40
FORT HANCOCK            44  73  42  63  41 /   0   0   0  20  40
LOMA LINDA              43  65  43  56  36 /   0   0   0  20  50
FABENS                  41  71  40  61  38 /   0   0   0  20  50
SANTA TERESA            40  69  40  60  38 /   0   0   0  20  50
WHITE SANDS HQ          41  69  41  59  39 /   0   0   0  20  60
JORNADA RANGE           31  66  36  58  34 /   0   0   0  20  60
HATCH                   35  70  38  60  38 /   0   0   0  20  60
COLUMBUS                39  69  41  59  42 /   0   0   0  20  50
OROGRANDE               39  68  41  59  37 /   0   0   0  20  50
MAYHILL                 38  63  37  48  28 /   0   0   0  20  60
MESCALERO               32  56  32  48  27 /   0   0   0  20  60
TIMBERON                38  59  37  49  29 /   0   0   0  20  60
WINSTON                 39  61  36  51  35 /   0   0   0  20  60
HILLSBORO               41  64  40  55  38 /   0   0   0  20  60
SPACEPORT               37  67  38  59  36 /   0   0   0  20  60
LAKE ROBERTS            35  63  34  56  35 /   0   0   0  20  70
HURLEY                  37  65  37  56  35 /   0   0   0  20  60
CLIFF                   34  68  35  61  37 /   0   0   0  20  70
MULE CREEK              30  64  32  59  31 /   0   0   0  20  70
FAYWOOD                 40  65  40  57  38 /   0   0   0  20  70
ANIMAS                  35  70  38  63  38 /   0   0   0  20  50
HACHITA                 34  70  37  61  38 /   0   0   0  20  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          34  70  38  62  38 /   0   0   0  20  50
CLOVERDALE              37  69  41  61  41 /   0   0   0  20  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/NOVLAN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.