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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 290927
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
327 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
After a long and typical spring dry spell across the Borderland,
an unusually vigorous spring low pressure storm system and
associated cold front arrived overnight. This brought widespread
scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, gusty winds,
and cooler air to the region. The storm system will continue to
slowly pass across the area today. This will keep slight chances
for showers and a few storms in the region, but most of them will
likely be north and east. Winds will continue breezy to moderately
windy behind the front today. These northwest winds will usher in
cooler air to keep temperatures about 20 degrees below those we
saw Friday. The storm exits early Sunday with lighter wind and
drier air moving in. Temperatures will begin a quick warmup
gaining 10 degrees on Sunday, and again on Monday to return the
region to above normal warmth. More a typical spring weather
pattern expected next week, with dry conditions and breezy
afternoons for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Given that the Borderland region is sitting right in the middle of
our driest season of the year, the overnight rain and storms is an
atypical occurrence for late April. The upper low pressure storm
system and associated cold front are both unusually strong for
the season, and dropping further south and most do this time of
year. The upper low dropped out of the Great Basin yesterday and
is passing over the Four Corners overnight. The cold front pushing
out ahead of the low has made it`s way through most of the CWFA.
That is the primary forcing responsible for the nocturnal
pcpn/storms we`ve experienced overnight. Today this large upper
low will move across N central NM with the jet aloft and strong
PVA channel moving directly over our area.

With the front overnight we had big increases in moisture ahead of
the storms arrival; PWs .75+ inches, and dewpoints spiking into
the 40s. However today behind the front, NW winds will rapidly
usher in drier air. Prog moisture levels are projected to fall to
around .25" by mid morning for most of the area...as dewpoints
also drop back to the teens. This means we have opposing elements
for and against pcpn/storms today. The forcing aloft is in place,
or moving in (PVA/JET/COLD POOL), however limited moisture and
cooler surface temps will reduce available ingredients for
PCPN/storm. Models do keep some instability with neg LIs and minor
CAPE values. The areas where the ingredients look most promising
are over the SACs, the far N zones and E zones. The S and SW zones
look like they should be dry by daybreak, and stay that way
today. Thus we have POPs N and E...and none S and W. Snow levels
will be dropping through the day over the higher elevations. Sacs
will see snow down to 7000 ft...with amounts of 0.5 to 3.0".

Storm exits tonight and a weak backdoor front pushes in to turn
winds NE overnight. The impacts with this are minimal with the
exception of an unusably cool night/Sun morning. Temps across the
lowland will remain above freezing but some typically cold
locations will flirt with 32. Ridging off west coast will begin to
nudge in from the west across the SW U.S. Sunday This will bring
our region under a deep dry NW flow pattern for a lot of next week
beginning on Sunday. The rest of the forecast package (through
next Friday) will be void of POP as dry wx is expected to persist.
Winds will be down considerably relative to what we experience
this week, but still typical spring breezy conditions likely most
afternoons. Temperatures will be cool again Sunday, but with a 10
degree warmup already taking place. A second 10 degree warmup on
Monday with dry westerly winds get our temperatures back up to
pre- frontal warm above seasonal normals.

An upper system and associated back door front pass by next WED
aftn/eve to cool us down again to end the week, but the upper
system looks to miss us to the east, leaving us dry; and the cool
air behind the front is not nearly as stark as today`s cooling
will be.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 29/12Z-30/12Z...
Generally VFR at all terminal...esp KDMN...but with brief periods
of MVFR possible due to passing SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. Skies gnrly
SCT050-080 BKN120-150...clearing west of KLRU-KELP to SKC-FEW080
in the PM. ISOLD -TSRA with small hail possible in a few storms.
Winds NW-N 15g25kts BCMG to N-NE 10g20kts aft 00z. Ocnl mdt turbc
ovr and nr mtns esply east slopes BLO 15k ft msl.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Expect wide range of weather today across southern New Mexico
behind an overnight cold front and a passing upper-level storm
system. Breezy to windy conditions will continue today with winds
turning more northwest and northerly today behind the cold front.
Temperatures area wide will be noticeably cooler as temps tumble
about 20 degrees from Friday`s readings. Despite some moisture
being in the region with this pair of weather features, dry air
will quickly move back over SW New Mexico. Critical fire weather
condition`s are expected Saturday over the low elevations of the
southwest quarter of New Mexico. Additional showers, and isolated
thunderstorm are possible over the mountains (especially the SACs)
and surrounding lowlands north of Las Cruces and east of the Rio
Grande. The colder air should produce some light snow (1-3
inches) in the mountains, mainly above 7000 ft in the Sacramento
Mountains. The storm will clear out Sunday. Temps will quickly
rebound 10 degrees Sunday, and another 10 degrees Monday to get
back above normal. Winds will remain typical spring-like breezy
most afternoons, but remain well below the windy levels we saw
this past week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 66  43  75  52 /  20   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           65  38  71  49 /  20   0   0   0
Las Cruces              62  38  71  46 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo              59  37  68  45 /  30  20   0   0
Cloudcroft              37  24  45  33 /  40  30   0   0
Truth or Consequences   56  36  71  44 /  20  10   0   0
Silver City             55  33  66  42 /  30   0   0   0
Deming                  63  36  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               65  38  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      65  43  74  52 /  20   0   0   0
Dell City               68  37  74  45 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Hancock            70  41  76  50 /  20   0   0   0
Loma Linda              60  38  66  49 /  20   0   0   0
Fabens                  68  42  76  51 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            65  39  74  49 /  10   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          61  40  70  49 /  20   0   0   0
Jornada Range           60  34  71  42 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                   62  36  74  44 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                67  40  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               62  39  70  48 /  20   0   0   0
Mayhill                 46  26  55  36 /  40  30   0   0
Mescalero               45  26  54  35 /  40  30   0   0
Timberon                46  26  53  37 /  30  20   0   0
Winston                 51  25  62  35 /  40  20   0   0
Hillsboro               55  33  69  43 /  30  10   0   0
Spaceport               58  32  71  41 /  20  10   0   0
Lake Roberts            54  29  65  33 /  30  10   0   0
Hurley                  58  33  68  41 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                   62  35  72  38 /  20   0   0   0
Mule Creek              60  36  70  39 /  20   0   0   0
Faywood                 57  34  68  43 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                  66  38  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 66  36  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          67  38  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              62  37  73  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
     NMZ111.

TX...None.
&&

$$

14-Bird



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