Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 281147
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
547 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS BY
LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL START OFF NEAR
NORMAL...BUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE`VE GONE FROM HIGH AND DRY TO LOTS OF MOISTURE AND IN A FEW
SPOTS LOTS OF RAIN. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE NOW UNIFORMLY
IN THE UPPER 50`S TO NEAR 60. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALL THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BORDER IS HELPING TO KEEP THE
CONVECTION GOING TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ROTATE UP ALONG THE
AZ/NM BORDER AND BRING MORE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. OF SOME CONCERN WILL BE THE BURN SCARS ACROSS GRANT AND
SIERRA COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY THE SILVER FIRE BURN SCAR. ONCE THE
UPPER SHORT WAVE ROTATES NORTH WE WILL RETURN TO A LESS ACTIVE DAY
ON TUESDAY. BUT BY NOW ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED IN UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM ARE INDICATING THAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL HELP SWEEP IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE. THE FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO HELP GIVE US
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THURSDAY WE WILL
HAVE A PRETTY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE...IN ADDITION WINDS ALOFT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY WEAK. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAIN. WE MAY NEED FLASH FLOOD WATCHES TO HELP HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION TO THE BENEFICIAL RAINS...THE OTHER BIT OF GOOD NEWS
IS THAT WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK. THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP OUR HIGHS STAY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z-29/12Z
WE WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT WE WILL SEE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND IN AND NEAR THESE STORMS WE WILL
SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY
VISIBILITIES). IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS WE WILL SEE OFF
AND ON CEILINGS TODAY RUNNING SCT-BKN080-120. SURFACE WINDS AWAY
FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN 120-18008KT. STORM MOVEMENT WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
COMING SEVEN DAYS. WITH THE RAIN AND MOISTURE IN THE AREA WE WILL
SEE RELATIVELY HIGH MIN RH`S. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE EAST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 96  75  95  75  97 /  20  10  30  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA           92  73  90  72  92 /  20  10  30  20  20
LAS CRUCES              95  70  93  69  95 /  20  10  30  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              96  71  94  70  96 /  20  10  30  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              72  51  71  49  72 /  50  10  40  20  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   94  69  92  68  94 /  40  20  30  20  20
SILVER CITY             86  62  86  61  86 /  60  40  40  30  30
DEMING                  95  70  93  69  95 /  60  20  30  20  20
LORDSBURG               94  69  92  68  94 /  50  40  40  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      97  74  95  74  97 /  20  10  30  20  20
DELL CITY               95  66  94  66  96 /  20  10  30  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            98  72  97  72  99 /  20  10  30  20  20
LOMA LINDA              87  68  87  65  87 /  20  10  30  20  20
FABENS                  97  72  96  72  98 /  20  10  30  20  20
SANTA TERESA            95  71  94  71  96 /  20  10  30  20  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          94  72  92  71  94 /  20  10  30  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           95  66  93  65  96 /  20  10  30  20  20
HATCH                   96  68  93  67  95 /  30  20  30  20  20
COLUMBUS                95  70  93  69  95 /  50  20  30  20  20
OROGRANDE               97  70  95  69  97 /  20  10  30  20  20
MAYHILL                 80  61  79  59  80 /  50  10  40  20  40
MESCALERO               82  58  81  56  82 /  50  20  40  20  40
TIMBERON                80  57  79  55  80 /  50  10  40  20  30
WINSTON                 85  62  84  60  84 /  60  40  50  30  40
HILLSBORO               88  69  88  66  88 /  50  30  30  20  20
SPACEPORT               94  69  92  68  94 /  20  10  30  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            87  57  86  55  86 /  60  40  40  40  40
HURLEY                  89  62  86  59  86 /  60  30  30  30  20
CLIFF                   92  62  92  60  90 /  60  40  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              91  59  89  57  89 /  60  40  40  30  30
FAYWOOD                 88  66  88  63  88 /  60  30  30  20  20
ANIMAS                  94  69  93  70  95 /  50  40  40  20  20
HACHITA                 93  68  93  67  95 /  60  40  40  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          95  71  93  70  95 /  40  40  40  20  20
CLOVERDALE              87  64  88  61  88 /  50  30  30  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/15




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