Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 292056
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
255 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH VERY FEW
CLOUDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE WEEK THE HIGH SHIFTS WEST AS A HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE GULF STATES SLOWLY MOVES WEST OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL INCREASE
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REGAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THEN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY THE ENTIRE BORDERLAND WILL SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET WEEK AHEAD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPTICK IN
ACTION MID TO LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE SHORTER TERM...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS NEW MEXICO RIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE DRY SLOT. TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PW`S OF AROUND
.7"-.8". IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
REMAINS OF MARIE FLOATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST DESERT. GFS
NOT SHOWING MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IN PLAY FOR SATURDAY BUT DENSE
CIRRUS COULD MAR A MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST. OTHERWISE JUST VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS.

EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH GRADUALLY PHASES IN WITH GULF OF MEXICO HIGH
INTO A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BELLY OF THE U.S. EVENTUALLY
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE GULF OF MEXICO HIGH BECOMES THE
DOMINANT CENTER AND MOVES OVER TEXAS BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH MOISTURE FEEDING IN FROM THE TROPICS. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING BACK DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND PW`S WILL
INCREASE BACK TO 1.1" TO 1.2". GFS SHOWING MOISTURE INTO THE EAST
HALF OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE SAC
MTNS FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO ENLARGE AREA OF POPS FOR FUTURE
FORECASTS. MOISTURE LOOKS MORE WIDESPREAD DISTRIBUTED ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SO POPS AREA WIDE LOOK REASONABLE. MUCAPE VALUES NOT
EXTREMELY HIGH (500-1000J/KG) BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME FLOOD POTENTIAL
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. JUST FOR CALIBRATION...KELP IS SITTING AT
2.51 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONSOON SEASON...OR ABOUT 66% OF NORMAL.
HOPEFULLY THIS LATE SEASON SURGE CAN HELP US CATCH UP!

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/00Z - 31/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND A SOLID BREAK IN
THE MONSOON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING ANY MOISTURE AT BAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL WORK BACK
INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 15 PERCENT DESPITE THE
DRYING TREND...AND VENT RATES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAVORABLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  96  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           65  92  66  92  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              66  95  67  96  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              65  94  67  95  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              47  72  49  74  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  94  67  95  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             61  88  63  88  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  64  96  65  97  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               62  95  64  95  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      70  96  72  97  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               66  97  66  97  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            69  96  71  97  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              68  91  68  89  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  68  96  69  96  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            68  96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          66  96  67  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           62  94  64  95  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   65  96  64  97  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                67  95  68  94  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               68  96  68  95  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 54  81  56  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               55  83  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                56  84  56  83  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 57  82  57  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               62  88  61  88  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               65  92  65  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            53  86  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  62  90  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   50  92  53  93  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              49  89  50  89  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 62  88  62  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  65  92  67  93  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 61  95  65  95  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          63  92  64  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              64  89  65  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/HARDIMAN








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.