Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 041029
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
329 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD AND BRING
A COLD EAST WIND OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH WESTERN SLOPES
EXPERIENCING GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR MORE. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO
4000 FEET EARLY THURSDAY BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN
EXCEPT FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. A WARMING
TREND WILL THEN TAKE PLACE STARTING FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW IS CROSSING THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET OF AIR
ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD.
MEANWHILE A VIGOROUS TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
WILL PUSH A HEALTHY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE BORDERLAND
TONIGHT AND TO THE ARIZONA BORDER AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET TODAY..BUT QUICKLY
LOWER TONIGHT AND REACH 4000 FEET OR BELOW EARLY THURSDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...SO
ANY LIGHT SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO
HUDSPETH & EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THE
EL PASO/LAS CRUCES METRO SEEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ANY
STRAGGLING SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...BUT IT IS NOT LIKELY. THE
SOUTHERN SACS COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES BEFORE IT ALL ENDS THERE
MIDDAY THURSDAY. THAT IS FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERION BUT NOT
PULLING THE TRIGGER YET. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF FRANKLINS/ORGANS/HUECOS TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM DEPARTING TROUGH WILL HANG BACK AND FORM A
WEAK CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST UNDER A DEVELOPING WEST COAST UPPER
HIGH (REX BLOCK). IT WILL BE SITTING OVER WHAT REMAINS OF THE BACK
DOOR FRONT. THAT MAKES ME A LITTLE NERVOUS IN CASE ANY MOISTURE
SNEAKS UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED IN THE
DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THAT MOISTURE OUT OF
HERE UNTIL THE LOW OPENS UP AND HARMLESSLY PASSES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY EVENING.

NOW THE GOOD NEWS. AFTER WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY...STILL
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY...THE
EXPECTED WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIND. JUST BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD THE WESTERLIES INCREASE MIDWEEK
WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNING. PROBABLY A RESPONSE TO MARCH
MADNESS ON THE HORIZON BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/12Z-05/12Z...MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VISBY POSSIBLE. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AROUND 05/03Z ELP AND 05/06Z DMN WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO EAST AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALLOWING SNOW
LEVELS TO DROP...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH A WARM-UP EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  30  47  29  56 /  20  20   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           56  23  40  24  49 /  30  20   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              57  28  47  26  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              56  26  45  24  52 /  30  30   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              37  17  32  23  39 /  30  40   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   54  29  45  29  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             50  26  48  25  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  59  29  49  26  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               55  29  51  27  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      59  32  47  31  57 /  20  20   0   0   0
DELL CITY               57  24  43  23  49 /  20  20   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            61  29  47  28  56 /  20  20   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              53  25  42  25  50 /  20  20   0   0   0
FABENS                  58  28  44  26  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            58  29  46  27  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          57  29  47  28  53 /  20  20   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           58  24  48  23  54 /  20  20   0   0   0
HATCH                   59  28  49  26  56 /  20  20   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                57  31  48  30  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               57  27  46  27  52 /  20  20   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 44  15  32  21  41 /  30  40   0   0   0
MESCALERO               44  16  36  23  45 /  40  40   0   0   0
TIMBERON                45  19  37  23  44 /  30  30   0   0   0
WINSTON                 47  25  42  24  49 /  20  10   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               52  29  46  27  52 /  20  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               57  26  48  25  56 /  30  20   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            48  23  46  21  53 /  20  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  51  25  47  24  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   56  27  55  24  61 /  20   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              52  21  54  20  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 51  28  46  26  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  57  30  53  27  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 58  27  51  25  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          57  29  55  26  59 /  30  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              54  31  53  29  57 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.