Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282153
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
353 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT DRY AND WARM WEATHER TONIGHT. TOMORROW ANOTHER DAY OF
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS AREA
MOUNTAINS AND FAR EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL HELP DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS PUSHED OUT ALL MOISTURE FROM THE AREA
LEAVING BEHIND DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. TOMORROW THE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALLOWING YET ANOTHER
DAY OF WARM...DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. TO OUR
WEST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST AND IT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
NAVIGATE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL SEND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT THE REGION WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING IN THE EAST SATURDAY AND PUSHING WEST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND STORM
ACTIVITY BUT THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH WITH QPF AMOUNTS.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STRETCHING FROM TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES DOWN TO
DEMING AND EAST...COULD BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS SHOWING NEARLY AN INCH OF PW
WITH -2.5 TO -4 LI`S IN FAR EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES ALONG
WITH MUCAPES OF 700 TO 1300 J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FULLY OVER THE AREA.
MOST OF THE WEEKEND MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD BUT SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS MAINLY AREA MOUNTAINS
AND FAR EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. AS DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALL MOISTURE IS MOVED EAST AS SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS BACK
IN. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z-30/00Z.
DRY LINE VAN HORN/DELL CITY/ELK LINE WITH PSBL SVR TSTSM E OF THIS
LINE UNTIL 06Z. OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MINOR EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. CLEAR TO FEW 140 FEW-SCT200-250. WINDS
WSW TO WNW 10KTS (G20 KTS 18Z-02Z).


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MINOR TROUGH ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NEW MEXICO HAS BROUGHT SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH ARE RAPIDLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THUS ALLOWING
AMPLE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL TROUGH FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EAST IS
FORECAST TO PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH MOST OF THE BORDERLAND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT PROVIDE AMPLE
FUEL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE THE BORDERLAND SUNDAY PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ALLOWING SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY. THE MIN RH FIELD WILL RUN ABOUT 5% TO 10% LOWLANDS AND 10% TO
20% ABOVE 7500 FEET HIGHLANDS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 64  95  65  92  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           58  92  60  85  58 /   0   0   0  30  40
LAS CRUCES              56  94  58  90  59 /   0   0   0  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              58  95  59  88  58 /   0   0   0  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              43  72  41  68  44 /   0   0   0  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   58  93  57  88  60 /   0   0   0  10  20
SILVER CITY             50  84  51  83  55 /   0   0   0  10  20
DEMING                  53  95  56  92  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               54  94  57  92  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      64  94  65  92  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
DELL CITY               58  94  58  86  57 /   0   0   0  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            60  95  63  91  62 /   0   0   0  30  40
LOMA LINDA              58  88  57  83  58 /   0   0   0  20  30
FABENS                  60  95  61  92  61 /   0   0   0  10  30
SANTA TERESA            58  94  62  91  62 /   0   0   0  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          60  95  62  89  62 /   0   0   0  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           55  95  56  89  57 /   0   0   0  10  20
HATCH                   56  94  57  91  59 /   0   0   0  10  20
COLUMBUS                58  94  61  91  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               61  95  61  88  61 /   0   0   0  20  20
MAYHILL                 49  80  47  73  49 /   0   0   0  40  50
MESCALERO               46  81  45  76  46 /   0   0   0  40  40
TIMBERON                48  79  46  76  48 /   0   0   0  40  40
WINSTON                 46  83  49  81  50 /   0   0   0  20  20
HILLSBORO               53  91  54  88  55 /   0   0   0  10  20
SPACEPORT               54  96  54  90  55 /   0   0   0  10  20
LAKE ROBERTS            45  84  49  84  51 /   0   0   0  10  20
HURLEY                  50  87  52  85  54 /   0   0   0   0  20
CLIFF                   42  90  41  88  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
MULE CREEK              38  86  40  87  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 52  88  54  85  56 /   0   0   0   0  20
ANIMAS                  54  94  58  93  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 52  95  56  93  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          52  94  56  93  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              51  88  54  89  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

PAZOS/NOVLAN





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