Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 260821
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
421 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017
.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Fairly active pattern with low impactful conditions for this short
term. First upper disturbance will continue to allow scattered
shower development pushing NEWD this morning with a brief lull in
coverage likely into mid morning. Convective initiation and increase
in shower or storm coverage is possible this afternoon with any
destabilization before the main wave axis is east of the area.
Median SBCAPE values from short term ensemble guidance is not
impressive (around 500 J/kg) along with just marginal deep layer
bulk shear values in the far north. Thinking any isolated strong to
severe development is less likely now though cannot rule out.
Another upper wave is quickly on the heels of the first and should
approach the area by late Monday afternoon. Progged conditional
instability does look a bit higher though any favorable severe
parameters stay mainly across the western TN valley into north AL.
Will maintain general chance pops for showers/storms across the NW
majority of the CWA and again cannot rule out a few strong to
isolated severe development.
Temps given this persistent southerly advection will stay at least 5-
7 degrees above normal for highs today and slightly warmer for
Monday with many locations close to the 80 mark.
.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
The unsettled weather pattern continues at the beginning of the long
term as another upper wave traverses the area. The best chance for
thunderstorm activity overnight Monday into Tuesday will be in north
Georgia where limited shear and better forcing will exist. However,
given the aforementioned limited shear as well as waning instability
during this time frame, severe thunderstorms are not a major
concern at this time.
This first wave and associated precipitation will exit the area by
Wednesday. Most of the area will remain dry Wednesday with upper
ridging in place. This relative break in activity will be short-
lived as the next storm system will be fast approaching by late
Thursday into Friday. Hence the chance for showers and thunderstorms
will quickly increase. There are still notable model discrepancies
regarding the evolution of this system as it approaches the area
with the GFS continuing to indicate a more southerly and resultant
stormier solution. Nonetheless, thunderstorms are a good bet with
By the weekend this storm system will have exited eastward with
relatively quiet weather being indicated for at least a couple days.
Temperatures will remain warm through the period with highs in the
70s and 80s expected across the area.
Area of showers pushing northeast for the next 4-6 hours with
possible break in coverage from the west by near 10-12z this
morning though should increase in coverage again through the day.
Have either -SHRA or VCSH carrying in much of fcst and prob30 for
TSRA and reduced VSBYs from 18-00z if enough destabilization
occurs with next disturbance. Cigs should be mainly MVFR this
morning though cannot rule out IFR lowering. Afternoon cigs mainly
in 3500-5000 ft range. Winds mainly 7-10 kts SSE with possible
shift to SSW after 15z near KATL.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on overall cig trend.
High on all else.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 75 58 79 58 / 50 30 30 30
Atlanta 75 60 78 60 / 50 30 30 40
Blairsville 67 54 71 54 / 60 40 40 60
Cartersville 75 58 77 58 / 50 30 40 60
Columbus 79 61 81 60 / 40 20 30 30
Gainesville 72 58 75 58 / 50 30 30 60
Macon 80 60 82 59 / 40 20 20 20
Rome 74 57 77 58 / 50 40 50 60
Peachtree City 76 58 78 57 / 40 30 30 30
Vidalia 80 60 82 61 / 40 20 20 20