Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 271141
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
740 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
.SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
Showers persisting over portions of northeast GA this morning may be
supported by a weak short wave vicinity of the southern
Appalachians. This feature was evident on water vapor and models
show it lingering into tonight. At this time...gfs and nam show much
of central GA to be generally more stable today...so have limited
the pops to much of north GA today into this evening. Low pressure
developing off the southeast coast is being monitored...but for now
there may be a slight chance of showers for the extreme east central
zones on Saturday. The remainder of the forecast area should be dry
due to subsidence...however increasing southerly flow into the Gulf
coast could trigger isolated showers for the extreme northwest
corner for Saturday. Have stayed close to mav/met temperatures.
.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH INTERESTS FOCUSED ON COASTAL TROPICAL LOW
PROGGED TO SLOWLY TRACK NW INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. NHC IS CARRYING AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORMATION IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THOUGH FOR NOW ANY IMPACTS LOOK TO
STAY EAST OF THE CWA AND PRIMARILY BRING SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF OUR EAST GOING INTO SUNDAY. POSITIONING OF LOW
MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE IN OUR NORTH AND WEST
FIGHTING DIURNAL FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
FROM MONDAY ONWARD GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE IN EVOLUTION OF LOW
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD TO OUR EAST. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS
PROGRESSIVE AND STAGNATES SOME FORM OF THE SYSTEM CENTERED IN SC
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DAMPENS/SHIFTS EAST AFTER
MONDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO CARRY GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN NORTH AND EAST
WITH SLIGHT ELSEWHERE MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
MODELS DO AGREE ON BROAD SW FLOW RETURN WITH RAMPED UP INSTABILITY
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK SO HAVE RAISED TO 30-40 POPS
AREA-WIDE THURS AND FRI FOR A BIT GREATER STORM POTENTIAL.
TEMPS OVERALL LOOK TO STAY SLIGHTLY WARMER /3-5 DEG/ THAN CLIMO
NORMS THRU PERIOD.
VFR should dominate at all sites through the period with patches
of mid/high clouds and some diurnal cumulus development. showers
this morning vicinity of KAHN persisting for now and could linger
due to a weak short wave over northeast GA.
Convective activity expected to be limited mostly to areas KATL-
KAHN and north today into the evening. Winds becoming light
southeast today 8 to 10kt.
//ATL Confidence...12Z update...
High on all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 86 62 87 64 / 20 10 5 10
Atlanta 86 65 86 66 / 20 10 5 5
Blairsville 80 61 83 58 / 30 20 10 10
Cartersville 85 63 87 61 / 30 20 10 5
Columbus 88 65 87 66 / 10 5 5 5
Gainesville 84 64 85 64 / 30 20 5 5
Macon 88 61 87 64 / 5 5 5 10
Rome 87 63 87 61 / 30 20 20 5
Peachtree City 87 61 86 60 / 20 10 5 5
Vidalia 88 64 86 67 / 10 5 20 20