Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 280132
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
932 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017


.UPDATE...

Trended some likely/high chance pops with SE-moving set of
outflow boundary induced convection (currently pushing south and
east of Macon). Lightning has dropped significantly, though there
is still some marginal instability that could be attained to still
keep an isolated/scattered thunder chance but doubt any strong to
severe intensity. Added some patchy fog mention again for any
early morning influence from localized residual moisture after
evening precip. Still ramping up precip chance in morning across
far north with approach of front/disturbance. Otherwise adjusted
some temp/dewpt trends given recent obs. Previous discussion
follows...

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 827 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
A cold front continues to sink southward through the Ohio Valley
this evening into the overnight hours.   Scattered afternoon
convection increasing over portions of north GA where the best
instability located. A few storms could pulse to severe limits
bringing damaging wind gusts through this evening. Convection will
propagate and form along outflow boundaries through the evening
before dissipating quickly with the loss of heating.  Convection
will increase again across north GA after daybreak as the
aforementioned cold front approaches north GA.

A more active day is expected on Friday as the aforementioned cold
front approaches the region. This cold front will bring increasing
thunderstorm chances especially across the northern half of the area
as it moves southward. Chances for severe thunderstorms will
increase through the day on Friday, the 0-6 km bulk shear values
over north Georgia are above 30 knots by Friday afternoon. the main
threat will be damaging winds. Additionally, PWATs remain quite high
ahead of the front (generally 2-2.3"), so heavy rainfall will also
be a concern.

Guidance temperatures are in pretty good agreement through the
period and have taken a blend.  Will need to see how cloud cover
impacts Friday afternoon high temperatures.

Atwell

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
No changes made to the extended forecast. Models continue in good
agreement through the long term. Short wave moving across
southern Canada will dig into the eastern trough and develop a
closed low over the Delmarva Peninsula. This will push the cold
front into south Georgia by Saturday. Drier air will spread over
the CWA Saturday into Saturday night ending the precipitation from
the north. Dry and stable air will hold over the region for
Sunday and Monday with dewpoints in the 60s across the CWA. As
another short wave drops out of the upper plains and into the
eastern trough, the upper low will fill and the trough will
broaden making for a messy pattern. Will trend pops back to
climatology. Temperatures through the long term will be at or just
below normals.

17/01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Initial VFR conditions (except some reduced VSBYs possible with
storms moving SE and approaching KMCN). Otherwise some lingering
mid-level clouds (SCT/FEW 10 kft) overnight. Cannot rule out some
patchy fog/reduced VSBYs for early morning but not confident to
include in TAF. Some lower cigs possible Friday morning ahead of
stronger disturbance and front from the north. Started a SCT 2 kft
after 13z for near KATL with gradual lifting to BKN 5 kft by 17z
with VCSH. Included TSRA prob30 groups after 18z and slightly
later for sites east and south. Initial light SW/West or VRB winds
should be light/calm overnight then increase to 7-10 kts out of
west Friday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low on early morning VSBY reduction potential.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  73  88  71 /  40  40  40  30
Atlanta         92  75  87  72 /  40  30  40  40
Blairsville     86  68  79  65 /  40  30  70  50
Cartersville    92  73  84  70 /  40  30  60  40
Columbus        94  76  93  75 /  30  30  20  30
Gainesville     90  73  84  71 /  40  30  60  40
Macon           94  74  93  74 /  60  60  30  20
Rome            93  74  84  70 /  40  40  70  40
Peachtree City  92  73  88  72 /  40  30  30  40
Vidalia         90  73  93  75 /  40  50  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Atwell/Baker
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Baker



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