Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 291834 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
130 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A LOOK AT THE INITIALIZED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOWS STRONG JET STREAK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
WHICH IS PUTTING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAST TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THE RULE AT THIS HOUR.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NEITHER ONE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT IN LOW END
CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT AND HAVE BUMPED UP
VALUES TO MID RANGE CHANCE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z ROUGHLY AS PRECIP
AXIS TRANSLATES FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE
SURFACE TO 8K FEET AND EVEN WITH MEAGER LIFT...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT VALUES TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERY 6 HR BLOCK FOR THIS EVENT.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH BRIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING FOR A COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z
WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. VFR TO UNLIMITED CEILINGS RETURN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12KT THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 4-8KT AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 08Z
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-12KT BY 10Z...AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
REACHING 10-15KT W/GUSTS 20-25KT BY 15Z. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  54  28 /  10  30   0   0
ATLANTA         57  37  51  31 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  42  24 /  20  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    58  35  47  25 /  20  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        61  42  57  31 /   5  30   5   0
GAINESVILLE     55  35  49  28 /  10  30   0   0
MACON           58  40  56  30 /   5  30   5   0
ROME            58  36  47  26 /  20  40   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  36  52  26 /  10  40   0   0
VIDALIA         63  46  58  34 /   5  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE


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