Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 281526
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1026 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR-TERM THIS MORNING. HAVE MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO POPS TO UPDATE TRENDS BUT OVERALL POPS REMAIN HIGH. BEST
QPF HAS MOVED OUT WITH A STRIP OF HEAVIER RAIN STILL FROM COLUMBUS
TO WASHINGTON...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES INTO NORTH
GEORGIA TONIGHT. PW VALUES STILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RECORDS...12Z KFFC SOUNDING HAD 1.6 INCHES WHICH IS ABOVE THE 99TH
PERCENTILE BUT JUST BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGH OF AROUND 1.75
INCHES. IN ANY CASE...THESE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AMOUNTS
AND WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE EVEN THOUGH RAIN WITH
SLACKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE FIRST WAVE
OF PRECIP SHIFTING INTO EXTREME NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN AS THE
NEXT AND FINAL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THE PRECIP
WILL RETURN...SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT AND EXITING ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TODAY AND
TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING AND WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LOW...HOWEVER
SOME MUCAPE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL GA COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TSRA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL ADD THIS TO THE GRIDS FOR A FEW
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET TEMPS LOOK GOOD
THROUGH MONDAY.

17

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE COULD CAUSE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GFS AND EUROPEAN HOLDING ONTO SOME PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FAR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND THIS SEEMS OVER DONE AS THE
DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN GREATEST OVER THE NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT FREEZING RAN OVER SOME OF THE
COLDER LOCATIONS OF FAR N GA AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MOST SO FOR N GA ON FRIDAY AS AN OVERRUNNING
FLOW INCREASES. RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR N AND WEST GA INTO
SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AS WELL. GFS AND
EUROPEAN ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE EUROPEAN INDICATING A
MUCH BETTER DEFINED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE EUROPEAN WOULD INDICATE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS STALLS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY WITH THE EUROPEAN CLEARING THINGS
OUT.

TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND CLOSE TO NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.

BDL

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH A FEW-SCT IFR CLOUDS STILL HANGING
AROUND FROM ATL-AHN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOWEVER AS ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE ATL/AHN AREA CIGS
BECOME MORE MVFR THAN VFR. RAIN WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE AREA OF RAIN SHIFTS NORTH...BUT EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TONIGHT AS
THE BAND OF RAIN SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS ATL/AHN AND INTO CSG/MCN
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST
THIS MORNING AND STAY WESTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          61  52  62  43 / 100  90  40  20
ATLANTA         62  52  61  44 / 100 100  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  47  56  39 / 100 100  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    60  47  59  40 / 100 100  20  10
COLUMBUS        69  56  64  47 / 100  90  30  10
GAINESVILLE     58  50  59  42 / 100 100  30  20
MACON           69  57  67  46 /  70  80  50  10
ROME            58  47  58  39 / 100 100  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  64  53  62  42 / 100  90  20  10
VIDALIA         74  59  70  52 /  10  50  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...DE KALB...
DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...
GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...
MERIWETHER...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$



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