Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 200538
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

41


.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE STRONG SIDE...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS REMAINED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE WITH
THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA AND A SHEAR AXIS SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TOMORROW. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...MOST OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. A BRIEF SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL..AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LESS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST STARTS TO BUILD
IN...THUS ALLOWING HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO REACH WELL INTO
THE 90S. THOSE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL JUST BE A PRECURSOR TO WHAT CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RW

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED THIS AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE HEAT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WE ARE FLIRTING
WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH IN
DEWPOINTS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL REEVALUATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST POPS TO OUR EAST BUT
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON THUNDER JUST TO COVER THE TYPICAL
DIURNAL CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF HEAT AND
MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOWING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST
WEST OF THE STATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA I STILL DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE
PULLING POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST COMPLETELY AT THIS TIME...BUT
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE WITH A WEST-
EAST GRADIENT AND A DIURNAL BIAS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
TURN EASTERLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD TAKE A BIT OF
THE EDGE OFF OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LATEST AREA OBS SHOW LIFR CIGS ALREADY AT CARROLLTON /CTJ/ AND
NEWNAN /CCO/. THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD SPREAD AT LEAST IFR CIGS INTO
THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BY 09Z IF NOT SOONER. EXPECT A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS BY 13-14Z... THEN VFR BY 15-16Z. GFS AND
NAM MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION BETWEEN 18-22Z TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW PROB30 -TSRA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. LIGHT WSW WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MIX DOWN MORE WNW BY 15-17Z AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 8-10KTS. EXPECT LIGHT WNW WINDS TONIGHT WITH ONLY SCT MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BY 09-10Z THU MORNING AT THIS TIME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR/MVFR CIGS LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL
OTHER ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  94  74  98 /  20  30  20  20
ATLANTA         73  93  75  95 /  20  30  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     65  86  68  89 /  20  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    72  94  71  95 /  20  30  20  20
COLUMBUS        74  95  76  97 /  20  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     71  92  73  94 /  20  30  20  20
MACON           73  96  75  98 /  20  30  20  20
ROME            71  95  71  95 /  20  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  20  20
VIDALIA         74  95  77  97 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...39














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