Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 020630
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

UPDATE...

AFTER AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO QUIET DOWN ACROSS MOST
AREAS. STILL A ZONE OF MLCAPE HOWEVER IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG SO
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED...WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF POPS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IN STORE
FOR MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM BACK ACROSS MS/AL. THE HRRR HAD A
GOOD HANDLE THIS MORNING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
EXPECTED CONVECTION SO LEANING THAT DIRECTING IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE HIGH RES HRRR SHOWS A DIURNAL TREND WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SHOWING THEM CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA THEN DIMINISHING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WE ARE CURRENTLY
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA FOR TODAY
AND MONDAY. THIS DOES LOOK GOOD AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY STAYS ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A VERY SIMILAR DAY
MONDAY WITH WHEN AND WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP BACK
UP MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

01

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS STILL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED. THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF ON A STORMY NOTE...BUT IS OVERALL
UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. STRONG SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH BEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED AND PUSH THROUGH THE STATE RATHER QUICKLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND AT THIS TIME SPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL STILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE STATE. POPS WEDNESDAY TAPER
OFF QUICKLY...THOUGH MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME.

CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT DRY/COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LARGELY DOMINATE OVER THE
AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME MINIMAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
NORTH GEORGIA...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE
DRY. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WEEK DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LARGELY VFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECT TO SEE SCT MVFR LAYER DEVELOP 10-12Z. EXPECT
LATER START TO CONVECTION TODAY...IMPACTING THE TAF SITES AFTER
20Z. WINDS WILL BE SW AT 6-8KT THROUGH THE DAY. DEGRADED
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.
MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH 15Z.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  62  78  55 /  60  60  40  20
ATLANTA         81  62  74  55 /  60  60  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     76  58  70  50 /  70  70  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    80  61  74  52 /  70  70  30  10
COLUMBUS        84  65  79  57 /  50  50  40  20
GAINESVILLE     79  61  73  54 /  60  60  40  20
MACON           86  64  81  56 /  50  50  50  20
ROME            80  60  74  51 /  70  70  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  82  61  76  53 /  60  60  40  20
VIDALIA         87  68  83  63 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31


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