Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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553
FXUS63 KICT 191155
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
555 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 323 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Today:
Front moving through Central KS at this time is being aided by
good surge of cold air over western Nebraska. Generally based
today`s forecast on RAP which seemed to have best handle front and
cold air. Front should slow/stall late today in response to
lowering surface pressure in the west. Expecting showers and a few
thunderstorms to break out later this morning or more likely this
afternoon in southeast KS given approaching front/good upper
support and moisture influx. Temperatures should recover a bit
this afternoon where clouds thin/clear, but eastern extent of
clearing is rather tenuous, so afternoon temperatures may be
optimistic.

Tonight:
Some freezing drizzle possible tonight from warm air advection
over shallow cold air in central Kansas and the Flint Hills.
Amounts/extent are not certain, but appears that accumulations
would mostly be a trace. Held off on an advisory at this time.
Day shift can reassess with this mornings model runs and a better
fix on position of front.

Tuesday-Wednesday:
With longwave trough remaining well to the west, surface boundary
will likely meander somewhere in the area through this period.
Given impressive baroclinic zone with front, large potential for
errors with temperatures and precipitation type. This is evident
in the 35 degree range in forecast high temperatures on Tuesday
across the forecast area. Appears that colder air will sink south
Tuesday night and Wednesday. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

More significant piece of energy will eject from western trough
during this period. Fair amount of discrepancy on strength and
timing of this between GFS/ECMWF. Per WPC discussion, consistency
has been a bit lacking so confidence is below average. That said,
quasi-stationary boundary and periodic ripples in flow will set
stage for multiple chances of precipitation. The location of
front will play heavily into precipitation type and precipitation
location. And of course this will also significantly impact
temperatures. For now, went along with initialization blend.
-Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

At issuance, a STRONG cold front bisected KS from the NE corner,
thru KHUT, to the OK Panhandle. The front will continue to move SE
today but decelerate as it approaches SE KS late this afternoon.
As the front approaches SE KS it`ll find ultra-rich moisture
waiting for its arrival. RA & embedded TRSA would develop along &
SE of the boundary this afternoon. The front is likely to stall
across SE KS by 20/00Z with RA & embedded TRSA increasing. SCT RA
& perhaps a few isolated TSRA may spread into Central & South-
Central KS late tonight. In the cold front`s wake N winds from 20
to 25 kts sustained with 25-30 kt gusts are likely across Central
& perhaps South-Central KS until late this morning. Another major
concern is widespread MVFR CIGS that`ll drop into IFR status
across Central KS. Further deterioration is likely later tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Gusty winds and warm air ahead of the cold front will briefly
produce very high GFDI values in southeast KS this morning. Once
front moves through, conditions should improve. Otherwise no
indications of serious fire weather threats through the rest of
the week as cooler air and generally lighter winds are forecast.
-Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  42  43  17 /  20  70  40   0
Hutchinson      47  33  37  14 /  10  50  20   0
Newton          50  37  38  14 /  10  70  40   0
ElDorado        56  43  45  17 /  40  80  60   0
Winfield-KWLD   61  50  51  19 /  50  80  60   0
Russell         38  21  30  10 /  10  20  10  10
Great Bend      41  24  32  11 /  10  20  10  10
Salina          42  27  34  13 /  10  50  20   0
McPherson       45  32  35  13 /  10  50  20   0
Coffeyville     66  61  63  24 /  70  80  90  30
Chanute         64  53  56  21 /  80  90  90  20
Iola            64  52  54  20 /  80  90  90  10
Parsons-KPPF    65  58  60  24 /  80  80  90  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...PJH



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