Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 210841
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
241 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 237 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows strong upper jet energy
diving into the southwestern states. This jet energy will spread
eastward across the Rockies today and create a rapidly deepening
upper level system over Texas/Oklahoma for tonight. Rain will
develop over the Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma today, then
spread northeast towards the Oklahoma/Kansas border areas for late
this afternoon. The strong upper level forcing should push a
decent coverage of rain into mainly southern Kansas tonight.

The upper level system will move away from the region on Sunday with
rain chances tapering off across southeast Kansas Sunday morning and
clearing skies in its wake. Dry weather conditions will follow
along with above normal temperatures Sunday and Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Models have remained fairly consistent showing the next weather
system ejecting out into the central plains on Tuesday and deepening
along with a strong surface cyclone. The better upper level forcing
looks to remain north of Kansas on Tuesday with only some small
precipitation chances possible for central Kansas Tuesday/Tuesday
night. Colder air will spread southward on Wednesday with some
flurries possible over central Kansas as upper trough axis pivots
across the region. Dry weather and temperatures near normal expected
for the Thursday/Friday period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Its a somewhat messy situation w/ MIFG/BCFG causing pronounced
vsby fluctuations alg I-35/I-135. The complicating factor is that
a weak sfc trof/cdfnt is movg slowly E into SC KS. The trof/front
is xpctd to weaken & dissipate Sat mrng when weak SE flow onsets
in response to diffuse low pressure developing from SE CO to alg
the NM/TX bdr. Intensification of the sfc cyclone wl ocr over the
TX/OK Panhandles Sat aftn to cause SE winds to back twd the E Sat
aftn & place KS in a strengthening upslope regime. Cigs & vsbys wl
quickly deteriorate late Sat Aftn w/ SC KS lkly in LIFR status by
22/00Z while LIFR cigs & vsbys are xpctd in SE & Cntrl KS Sat Eve.
Subsequent TAFs wl provide greater detail on the deteriorating
trends, spcly the 21/18Z & 22/00Z issuances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    55  39  53  29 /  10  40  10   0
Hutchinson      54  36  52  27 /  10  30   0   0
Newton          55  36  50  28 /  10  30   0   0
ElDorado        56  38  51  29 /  10  40  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   58  40  53  29 /  10  60  10   0
Russell         53  32  51  25 /  10  10   0   0
Great Bend      53  33  51  26 /  10  20   0   0
Salina          53  34  52  26 /   0  10   0   0
McPherson       54  35  51  27 /  10  20   0   0
Coffeyville     62  43  54  30 /  10  80  40   0
Chanute         59  40  51  29 /  10  60  30   0
Iola            58  40  50  28 /  10  60  20   0
Parsons-KPPF    60  42  52  29 /  10  70  40   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...EPS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.