Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 232037
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
337 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN
INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED FROM KGCK TO KGLD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS CU FIELD BEGINNING TO BUBBLE UP NEAR KGLD. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL TO NW OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) WEAKENS
THE CAP. BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A SEVERE HAIL/WIND
THREAT FOR AREAS NW OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENT SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EAST-SE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...POSSIBLY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KS WELL AFTER SUNSET. MLCAPE AROUND 1200-1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 40 KTS SUGGESTS SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL
AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS...BUT DRY LOW LAYERS MAY LEAD
TO INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THE COLD POOL DEVELOPS AND
LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS NORTH RIGHT INTO THIS CONVECTION. THINK ANY
SEVERE CHANCES IN CENTRAL KS...WILL BE WELL AFTER SUNSET..WITH
CURRENT SEVERE WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11PM.

COLD POOL WILL PUSH THIS CONVECTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH SEVERE HAIL THREAT DIMINISHING...BUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE STORMS DEVELOP INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) AS IT DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THINK THE PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE
SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL BE....WITH SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS THE STORMS MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE MCS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO VEER INTO THE FLINT HILLS AND EVENTUALLY SE
KS BY EARLY THU.

THU-FRI: NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN AFTER TONIGHTS SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THU.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AS REMNANT MCS MOVES EAST
INTO MO. MOST OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BE IN THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

THE WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA ON FRI...FOR A NICE
SPRING DAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FRI NIGHT-SUN: IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY INTERESTING
WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW US AND INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES AND THE SRN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH 850-700H WARM ADVECTION/ MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF KS FOR
LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BULK SHEAR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE CHANCE EARLY SAT FOR AREAS OVER
THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS.

ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO SAT AFTERNOON...AS BOTH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT THIS DEEP TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED
IN THE SRN ROCKIES BY SAT MORNING...WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
FLOWING INTO KS FOR SAT AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS
BRING THIS SYSTEM IN A LITTLE SLOWER INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYLINE SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL GET FOR SAT...BUT THE SYSTEM MOVING IN SLOWER
WILL ALLOW THE WARM MOIST AIR TO SURGE FURTHER NORTH...PLACING MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THINK AS MID LEVEL COOLING INCREASES...SUPERCELL STORMS WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ALL FORMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES. SOME UNCERTAINTY OH HOW FAR EAST THIS SEVERE THREAT
WILL GET SAT NIGHT...BUT CERTAINLY THINK AREAS WEST OF I-135 WILL BE
UNDER THE GUN SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME HIGH END SEVERE STORMS MOVING
INTO AREA AFTER DARK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS DRYLINE SURGING TO THE EAST ON SUN
PUSHING TO NEAR I-135 FOR SUN AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE SURGES
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A NEGATIVE TILT.  CERTAINLY THINK ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-135. COULD SEE THIS CONVECTION DEVELOP ALOT EARLIER THAN
SAT POSSIBLY BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA...AS A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL STILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WITH BETTER
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND BULK SHEAR. COULD SEE SEVERE STORM MODE
EITHER BE...CLOSELY SPACED QUICK MOVING SUPERCELLS OR BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS...AS FLOW IS MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL THAN ON SAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY QUICKLY RACING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS KMKC/KTOP.

MON-TUE: MAIN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOTS OF MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
AVAILABLE UNDERNEATH THIS LOW AS THE COLD CORE NATURE OF THIS LOW
MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOL AND DAMP START TO THE WEEK.
COLD CORE NATURE TO THIS LOW COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED STORMS DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW ON MON
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING ABOUT A DECENT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCNU. WE ARE GOING TO
CONTINUE STRONG WINDS FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OUT TO THE WEST AND THEN AS THE SUN SETS...WE
SHOULD EXPECT THE STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THIS
SHOULD MOVE INTO KRSL AND KHUT BY 03Z TO 04Z AND THEN PROGRESS
EAST HITTING KSLN AND KICT AROUND 06Z GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. IT
WILL BE HIT OR MISS AT KCNU. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE STORMS YOU CAN
EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO DIP BELOW VFR LEVELS BEFORE LIFTING DURING
THE MID MORNING.

CHANCE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY WITH EXTREME
FIRE DANGER ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40%. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 30-35 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 135.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
ON THU AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS. WINDS WILL AGAIN FLIP
AROUND TO THE SOUTH FOR FRI AND WILL INCREASE...PRODUCING VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LAWSON/KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  75  48  83 /  80  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      52  74  47  83 /  90  10   0   0
NEWTON          53  73  48  81 /  80  20   0   0
ELDORADO        56  74  47  81 /  70  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  76  48  83 /  60  20   0   0
RUSSELL         48  73  46  82 /  90  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      50  73  45  83 /  90  10   0   0
SALINA          51  74  46  83 /  90  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       52  74  46  82 /  90  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  72  46  81 /  40  50   0   0
CHANUTE         59  72  45  81 /  50  60   0   0
IOLA            60  73  45  80 /  60  60   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    60  72  46  81 /  50  60   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-
048-050-067.

&&

$$







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