Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 110526
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1126 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Little has changed in the synoptic pattern across the CONUS with
the latest updates, as a highly amplified upper ridge continues to
dominate the western half of the U.S. while a deep trough sits
over the east. This setup will continue to support a northwest
flow regime for the Central Plains, resulting in virtually no
chances for precip and mild temperatures for central, south
central, and southeast Kansas over the next few days.

Today will be the warmest day in the forecast, with downslope
flow allowing afternoon highs to reach into the 60s across the
area with breezy northwesterly winds sustained near 20mph in
central Kansas.

Models are in agreement that a clipper will dig across the Upper
Mississippi Valley area Monday before heading off to the Northeast
early Tuesday. This will push a cold front south across the area.
Low atmospheric moisture will prevent any precip from being
associated with the system, but a tightened gradient will produce
strong winds with gusts in excess of 35mph and localized higher
gusts possible, especially in central Kansas. When combined with
low relative humidity and cured grasses, grassland fire danger
will be very high to extreme on Monday afternoon over much of the
region (see Fire Weather Discussion below). In addition, 1000mb-
500mb thickness will drop in the wake of the system, cooling
temperatures back down a bit overnight Monday and into Tuesday,
though they will still be above normal for the time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

In the long term, another clipper is forecast to quickly make its
way across northeastern Kansas Wednesday evening. For now, it
appears that the associated surface low will remain well to the
north and east of the CWA, keeping any moisture transport or
precip chances at bay and continuing the dry pattern through the
remainder of the week for the Central Plains. The front will also
cool temps back down slightly for Thursday, as yet another gradual
warming trend will reset and temps trend upward and remain well
above normal heading into the weekend and into the beginning of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Main story will be
strong and gusty northwest winds developing by mid to late
morning Monday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Anticipating some gusts upwards of 30-40 kts in the afternoon,
especially across central and east-central KS. SCT-BKN VFR clouds
around 4000-6000 ft AGL are expected by late afternoon and
evening as cold advection kicks in.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Cured grasses, low relative humidity, and gusty winds will result in
very high to extreme grassland fire danger on Monday across much of
the area. The highest GFDI values will be predominately in central
and south central Kansas, but for now a Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for Monday across the entire CWA with the exception of the
far southeast counties. Any outdoor burning on Monday is highly
discouraged.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    33  61  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      32  61  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          32  59  27  49 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        29  60  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   30  62  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         34  59  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      32  59  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          34  59  27  51 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       31  59  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     30  62  29  47 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         31  60  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            30  58  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    28  62  28  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM CST Monday through Monday evening
for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>071-082-083-091>095-098-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...TAV



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