Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 220156
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
956 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WAVERING WARM FRONT...AND A
SHORTWAVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
02Z UPDATE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN KY, SOUTHWESTEN WV, AND
DICKENSON AND BUCHANAN COUNTIES IN VA. A STORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THIS
COMPLEX WILL PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN. SHOULD THE RAIN FALL OVER
THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED EARLIER RAIN...FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE THE
AREA TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AND A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDER. PROFILES ARE
SOGGY WITH PWATS HOVERING NEAR 2 INCHES SO EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT
FORM TO HAVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN
HAS FALLEN AND IN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL BEGIN TO SEE A DRIER REGIME AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AREA.
STILL HAVE SOME SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS BLENDED IN FROM CONSENSUS AND
INHERITED NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO AREA BUT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
SHOULD STAY W OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL BE CONTENDING
WITH THE MUGGIES WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. A FRONT APPROACHES LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME BREAKS.  KEPT MVFR
CONDITIONS  FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR ALL SITES...HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT CEILINGS COULD DROP WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IN ANY
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.   FOG DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN AS THERE WILL
BE THE CHANCE FOR A PUFF OF WIND AND SOME CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT
TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN PROTECTED VALLEYS AND IN AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED.

MORE PRECIPITATION TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE COULD
LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW...WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WHILE
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR IS POSSIBLE BUT DIFFICULT TO TIME IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF POST RAIN FOG
AND LOW CLOUD MAY BE MORE PREVALENT THAN CODED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 08/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY ROUND OF CONVECTION FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND.  LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005-024-025-033-034.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/LS
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...LS







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.