Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 232035
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
425 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN ON FRIDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. NEXT FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING CALM IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER FOG
WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO HAMPER
FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGHER
CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE SOME FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THEY
WILL CREATE.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DRAG WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRAILED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWING THESE FEATURES FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
WASH OUT IN TERMS OF THE PRESSURE FIELDS...AND AGAIN...WILL PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDS AND A REMOVAL OF THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELD.

FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE...AND
MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS FOR SOME SPRINKLES WITH EITHER FEATURE. DID
ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE SATURDAY
EVENING COLD FRONT. MIGHT GET SOME DAMP GROUND IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

TEMPERATURES PUSH WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL
ONLY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN THE END...A DECENT WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
OPEN TO SEE IF MODELS MAKE A PUSH FOR BETTER MOISTURE IN WHICH SOME
LOW END POPS NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING.

WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF.  A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY
HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS
WARM.  STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE
PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
MEET.  HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD
OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN
OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC.

GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT.  THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT.  SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL HOLD
POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY.  WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN
TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY RAISE AND
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING
CALM IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION
OF WHETHER FOG WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL
ATTEMPT TO HAMPER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY
PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD VARY. FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...RPY










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