Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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808
FXUS61 KRLX 241224
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
824 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather returns with temperatures climbing well above
normal this weekend. The next shot at showers arrives Sunday
morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 825 AM Friday...

Shot out a quick update for isolated shra across southeast Ohio
and northern WV.

As of 150 PM Friday...

Warm frontal feature brushes northern zones this morning. Radar
indicates a little light rain may make its way into the CWA.
Other than that, the area should remain dry and warm as we
remain firmly in the warm sector under a high pressure ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Friday...

With a warm front set up to our north, generally looking at warm
temperatures through the short term. Saturday should be mostly
dry, although do have some low end POPs creeping into the west
by evening. This is tied to a nearly stacked low pressure system
moving across the Mississippi River Valley Saturday night and
weakening/opening as it crosses the Great Lakes on Sunday. Have
fairly high POPs on Sunday as an occluding cold front pushes
through. Have POPs decreasing Sunday night as the surface
boundary heads NE. But keep some slight chance to low chance
POPs going since we maintain a fairly moist flow as another
system starts sliding across the Central Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 AM Friday...

A fairly quick moving surface low and 500mb shortwave trough
crosses Monday night into Tuesday with likely POPs. Went mostly
dry Wednesday and Wednesday night, with POPs ramping back up
Thursday as another surface/500mb low begins to move across the
Southern Plains.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the period.
Wednesday should be the coolest day with some northwest flow
resulting in highs fairly close to normal. Stuck very close to a
consensus blend through the period for highs and lows.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 AM Friday...

VFR through the period with mid level moisture from a warm front
passing through this morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
Restrictions and low level wind shear are likely with the
advance of late Monday cold front.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...JW/30
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JW



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