Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 220743
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
343 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND
LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED AROUND VIRGINIA AND SHORT WAVES ARE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS/LIGHT SPRINKLES
ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVES. AS THE LOW MEANDERS EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL BE COOL
AND CLOUDY. POPS BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY DON/T SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT. IF ANYTHING FROZEN WERE TO FALL IT WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREV DISCN...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT
H500 BRINGING A VORTICITY MAXIMA EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD
BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS DONT BRING MUCH IN QPF FIELDS...THE SREF
BRINGS POPS UP TO 20 PERCENT OF RAIN. THEREFORE...EXPECT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME ON FRIDAY. AS THE TIME
APPROACHES...MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE GAINED ON THIS FEATURE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WENT GENERALLY WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW
GUIDANCE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CAUSE MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
TERMINALS.  CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
STARTING AFTER 19Z. KCKB...KEKN...KBKW WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
TODAY.

CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.  MVFR / IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON
WED...WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WED
AFTERNOON.  CLEARING FROM THE W WILL REACH NEAR THE OHIO RIVER LATE
WED.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NW WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO
MODERATE N.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY.  CIG HGTS COULD VARY EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 10/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...AND IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT CLEARS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB








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