Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 170821
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
421 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure with cool mornings and warm afternoons, with
temperatures moderating through the weekend. A cold front
crosses on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Tuesday...

No significant changes necessary to the previous forecast. High
pressure in control with dry conditions. Dew points have not
fallen as much as previously forecast, so not as widespread of a
frost/freeze as expected, with dense valley river fog starting
to develop, as evident on satellite and airport observations.

Once fog burns off, expecting a mostly sunny day, a few degrees
warmer than Monday. Another cool night on tap tonight, with
dense river valley fog, and patchy frost expected. Will allow
the day shift to reevaluate whether any additional frost
headlines will be necessary for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM Tuesday...

A weak upper level short wave trough crosses Wednesday night.
However, with very dry air in place, and surface high pressure
in control, reinforced by another on Thursday, the dry weather
continues. An upper level ridge crosses Friday, as surface high
pressure drifts slowly east of the area.

Central guidance temperatures reflect a slowing of the warming
trend, on account of the short wave trough and reinforcing high.
Valley frost is again possible Thursday morning, but
temperatures down to or below freezing in the northern mountain
valleys will be isolated at best. Minimum RH values will dip
into the 20s in parts of the area Wednesday afternoon, with 30s
again widespread Thursday afternoon, becoming more confined to
the mountains for Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 420 AM Tuesday...

Upper level and surface ridging move off the east coast this
weekend, allowing an upper level trough and surface cold front
to approach from the west Sunday night. Models were converging
on a Monday passage of the cold front, along with full latitude
amplification of the upper level trough. The front spells a high
chance for showers, and perhaps thunder, on Monday. After
drying out behind the front Monday night, the slowing, deepening
upper level trough over the area spells lots of clouds, and the
chance for showers, on Tuesday.

Central guidance reflects a warm weekend on tap, followed hy
temperatures falling back to normal early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 AM Tuesday...

Local LIFR/VLIFR valley fog possible 06-13Z in sheltered river
valleys. Otherwise, VFR with light surface winds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may be more widespread than currently
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 10/17/17
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Dense valley fog possible each morning this week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ031-032-039-
     040-519>526.
     Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>030-033-034-515>518.
OH...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL



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