Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 270142
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
942 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front crosses the region on Thursday. Weak warm front
move through this weekend. Stronger cold front Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 940 PM Wednesday...

All quiet tonight with the active weather well to the west. Did
go ahead and drop the overnight lows a couple notches given the
lower dewpoints in play and sites decoupling.

As of 220 PM Wednesday...

Cold front approaches from the west tomorrow morning. Strong
thunderstorms will be possible with this front, but the risk for
strong storms will be greatest east of the Ohio River. Across
the Western CWA it appears that clouds and showers out ahead of
the front will limit daytime heating there and thus lower
instability will be the result.

Further east however, we will likely see clouds and convection
hold off until early afternoon. Highest dew points will be well
to our south, but low 60s dew points across Central West
Virginia will be possible by early afternoon. Forecast
soundings are showing some modest CAPE at about 1000 J/Kg and
fairly strong 0-6 km bulk shear out ahead of the front upwards
of 50 knots. With the strong wind profiles, the main severe
threat will be damaging winds, but this will likely be an
isolated threat as the limited moisture/instability should keep
most of the storms below severe limits. Severe hail will be less
likely, but certainly not out of the question with the strong
shear even with limited instability. Showers and storms will be
through most of the area by late afternoon to early tomorrow
evening, but we may see a few storms linger in the NE Mountain
Counties of West Virginia through 00Z Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 PM
Wednesday...

Cold Frontal boundary exits to the east of the CWA Thursday
night, with drier, and warm weather taking hold for Friday as
the frontal boundary gradually lifts back north as a warm front.
Warm front will continue to lift northward as next system
approaches from the west. Kept much of the CWA dry for Friday
into Saturday. Low moves across the great lakes during the day
on Sunday with the trailing cold front passing through late
Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM
Wednesday...

Weak high pressure starts to build in Monday night and Tuesday.
Temperatures will stay on the warm side through Wednesday as a
weak midlevel system approaches and brings mainly clouds and
possibility of some showers to the area for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...

VFR tonight for all sites except EKN, where the LAMP guidance
brings in MVFR mist late. Should not be an IFR situation at that
site.

Showers and thunderstorms develop after 15Z Thursday, but the
cold front shears out, reducing the chances to a small degree.
No prevailing TSRA at this time, but TSRA in the area can be
expected through the middle portion of the day, and afternoon
for the mountains. Wind gusts likely in storms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium early tomorrow morning at EKN, then
medium to high late tomorrow morning into early afternoon.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may may not develop at EKN. Timing and
coverage of showers and storms late tomorrow morning into early
afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 04/27/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
MVFR to IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/26
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26


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