Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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796
FXUS61 KRLX 020542
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
142 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1130 PM UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED POP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN
INCREASED IT AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT AS FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THAT REGION. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

1030 PM UPDATE...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WANED
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLOODING APPEAR TO BE OVER. BOTH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAVE BEEN CANCELED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...NEAREST THE FRONT
AND WAVE MOVING ALONG IT...AN EVEN FARTHER NORTHWARD TREND NOTED
WITH THIS LATE THIS EVENING.

730 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS STRONGEST...HEAVIEST AND MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF WARNING AREA...WHERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134
REMAINS IN EFFECT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE A BIT WITH THE
SUNSET AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.

ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SET UP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO INTO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL CROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCN...
BREAKS IN CLOUDS OFFER A CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LIS < 4 AND CAPE > 1000 J/KG AND EVEN UP TO 2000 J/KG IN SOME
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ROUND OF STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN...POSING A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND A SMALL
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL. THE MAIN CONCERN IS STORMS
TRAIPSING ACROSS AREAS ALREADY HARD HIT BY LAST NIGHTS RAIN. SO
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS WE GET A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...WITH A SURFACE WAVE ALONG IT...EXITS TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
LOBE OF VORTICITY CROSS. SHOULD GET A MAINLY DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS. SATURATED GROUND FROM RAINFALL TODAY
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.

A LINE OF SH0WERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...WILL IMPACT PKB OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN
AIRPORT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH
THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG. NOT SURE
IF ALL SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS BEING MOST
LIKELY TO SEE A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 05/02/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TOMORROW IN FOG ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...JW/MPK
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK



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