Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 112350
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
755 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES
BY LATER SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE EVENING UPDATED...WITH THE TEMP/DEW POINT SEPARATIONS OF 25
TO 30 LATE FRIDAY THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING...WAS A
BIT LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE FOG. IN OTHER WORDS...NOT AS MUCH
FOG. GRANTED THE DEW POINT WILL CREEP HIGHER AFTER SUNSET.  TRIED TO
KEPT THE SIGNIFICANT FOG MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER AND COOLER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
FROM THE WNW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS PERIOD. WHILE
MODELS AGREE ON TWO MAIN WAVES OF CONVECTION...THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. SINCE THE GENERAL TREND IS TO SPEED UP THE WHOLE SYSTEM
SOMEWHAT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER GFS...BUT NOT ALL THE WAY.
THIS SCENARIO BRINGS ONE BAND OF CONVECTION WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE
FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE
IN THE WEST...AND THE SECOND BAND WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SEVERE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. IN BETWEEN...WE
LEAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
UNSTABLE. THUS...WILL OUTLOOK WESTERN PORTIONS OF AREA LATER
SUNDAY FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE...AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 90 DEGREES...WITH
HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
TUESDAY...WITH CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
THEREAFTER...DRY HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE TEMP/DEW POINT SEPARATIONS OF 25 TO 30 LATE FRIDAY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING...WAS A BIT LESS ENTHUSIASTIC
WITH THE FOG. IN OTHER WORDS...NOT AS MUCH FOG COMPARED TO DAWN
FRIDAY FOR DAWN SATURDAY. GRANTED THE DEW POINT WILL CREEP HIGHER
AFTER SUNSET.  TRIED TO KEPT THE SIGNIFICANT FOG MOSTLY IN THE
DEEPER AND COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...INCLUDING KEKN.  SO WAS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH LIGHTER FOG FOR PLACES LIKE KCKB...KCRW.

SCATTERED CUMULUS AT 3 TO 6 THSD FT AGL AFTER 15Z...WITH INCREASING
MID CLOUDS AT 9 TO 14 THSD FT AGL ARRIVING FROM WNW DURING THE 18Z
SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER NEAR SUNRISE SATURDAY
AT CRW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 07/12/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR IN ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOG WHERE RAIN FALLS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB









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