Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 231823
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
223 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Remnants of Cindy and a cold front to provide rounds of heavy
rain through tonight. Cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with upper
level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1115 AM Friday...
Updated POPS and clouds to account for mid level dry slot and
breaks in the clouds over NE Ky and central/northeast WV this
morning. Looking for main organized band of heavy convection,
associated with Cindy and a cold front that will drop
southeastward into the area, first across southeast OH and
northwest WV and then shifting southeastward with the system
later this afternoon and tonight. Inserted mention of heavy
rain. Otherwise, clouds will tend fill in with heating this
afternoon. Flash flood watch continues.

As of 600 AM Friday...

Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary attm.

As of 345 AM Friday...

Deep southwest flow will bring moisture associated with tropical
depression Cindy to the area through tonight. Models show high
dewpoints...in the upper 60s...and pwats reaching 2 inches
suggest showers and storms could produce heavy rain. Available
moisture, diurnal heating, deep layered shear exceeding 50 knots
and sfc CAPE values exceeding 2000 J/Kg mainly along the OH
River suggest some storms could produce damaging winds and
periods of heavy rain. The freezing level is about 15 kft.
Therefore the threat for large hail is low.

SPC have portions of southeast OH and WV and northeast KY in a
slight risk for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A flash
flood watch is in effect for the entire CWA until 6 AM Saturday.

Tonight, the remaining circulation associated with Cindy will be
passing over the forecast area. Meanwhile, a cold front will push
east reinforcing instability and moisture. Very heavy rain is more
likely tonight.

Total QPF of near one inch is forecast across southeast OH, and
decrease towards the east. Tonight, the rainfall axis shifts to
the east diagonally across central WV with a QPF maxima of 2
inches across northeast KY, and 1 to 1.5 inches elsewhere.

Overall, in the next 24 hours can expect a widespread 1.5 to 3
inches with locally heavy amounts through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Friday...

High pressure will result in dry weather into Sunday.

A cold front should sweep across portions of the region Monday
into Monday night bring a chance of showers and storms.

Temps will remain below normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 PM Friday...

Cool high pressure will build in on Tuesday bringing rain
chances to an end.

Below normal temps should prevail Tuesday into Wednesday before
southerly winds result in near normal readings for the remainder
of the region.

Another system apporoaching the region from the northwest will
result in increasing chances for showers and storms beginning
on Thursday which should continue into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
16Z Friday thru 12Z Saturday...
As of 1140 AM Friday...

Very unsettled period with remnants of Cindy and a cold front coming
across the area this afternoon and tonight. Look for scattered
diurnal thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, this afternoon
well ahead of the system. The organized band of heavy rain and
storms, which could also produce strong and gusty winds, will
first affect southeast Ohio and northwest West Virginia early to
mid afternoon, then progress southeastward across the remainder
of the area later this afternoon and much of tonight. However,
most of the precip with Cindy/cold front will exit the
mountains by 12Z Saturday.

Generally, expect MVFR ceilings, outside of the scattered
afternoon convection ahead of the main band this afternoon.
Expect MVFR conditions going to IFR in the main band as it
shifts southeast across the area, with general timing mentioned
above. Post precip IFR ceilings will continue behind the cold
front/Cindy tonight for about 3 to 5 hours. After 06Z slowly
improving to VFR ceilings from northwest to southeast, reaching
the I79 corridor by 12Z Saturday.

Southwest winds 10-20 kts and gusty this afternoon, diminishing
this evening with loss if heating, then shifting to west to
northwest 5 to 10 KTS behind the front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and duration of MVFR/IFR conditions
may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    M    L    M    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    L    M    L

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in river valley fog Saturday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.