Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 162328
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
628 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure tonight. Weak system with chance of showers Sunday
afternoon/evening. Cold fronts cross Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 625 PM Saturday...

No significant changes to the forecast this evening.

As of 1220 PM Saturday...

A high pressure system will provide dry weather and light winds
tonight. However, some cirrus in advance of the next system will
be moving into the region. Think that enough good radiation
conditions will exist to go on the cooler side of MOS guidance
lows.

Flattening wave aloft moves over the area Sunday afternoon and
evening. While some showers are expected, most of the moisture
will be used trying to wet the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Therefore, precipitation amounts will remain on the lighter
side.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...

Dampening s/w trof quickly exits to the east Sunday evening.
However, an abundance of low level moisture will linger along
with some weak isentropic lift in WAA. This was handled with
light rain and drizzle in the wx grids. There is some concern
for perhaps some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain in the
higher elevations, however confidence is not particularly high
at this point for any mention in the HWO. All of this will try
to linger for the first half of Monday along and north of the
I64 corridor as WAA strengthens to our southwest. This may setup
a significant temp gradient across the area with low
stratus/drizzle across the north and some sunshine across
extreme southern counties. I have undercut guidance for highs
Monday quite a bit across the north as a result. The WAA
eventually wins out by Monday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 PM Saturday...

A southern system will scoot by mainly to the south Wednesday
and Thursday, though enough of a spread for some low pops across
the mountains. Attention then turns to the weekend where there
remains considerable spread on the synoptic pattern evolution
across the eastern CONUS, as a battle looms between building
warmth across the southern states and advancing cold air from
Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 625 PM Saturday...

Increasing cloud cover expected through the period, with the
atmosphere saturating from the top down. Thus, ceilings will
gradually lower as low pressure aloft moves towards the region
from the southwest. Winds expected to stay below 10kts through
the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR in light rain and stratus at times Sunday night through
Monday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26


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