Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 030116
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
916 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO SLOWLY DRY OUT WEDNESDAY.
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK...WITH EAST FLOW
HERE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW HOURS AGO...KRLX RADAR INDICATED
A BOUNDARY PROPAGATED NW INTO THE LOWLAND COUNTIES AND DRIZZLE
WAS REPORTED IN THE CHARLESTON AREA WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN BELOW FORECASTED NUMBERS. LATEST LAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL BELOW FORECASTED NUMBERS OVERNIGHT. HAVE
TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE TO REFLECT THIS
TREND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA SOCKED IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION
WAS EVEN STRONGER THEN PROGGED. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE IN A LIGHT FLOW REGIME BUT BETTER MIXING WED AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE SHOULD GIVE RISE TO BREAKS AT LEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWLANDS AND LEEWARD MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

THE STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERSION AND CLOUD DECK HAS
KEPT THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
S...JUST S OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE IN SW VA AND
ERN POCAHONTAS COUNTY INTO THIS EVENING...AND A SHOWER CHANCE IN
THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION NEARBY THERE.

THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY W OF THE MOUNTAINS...A REVERSAL OF THE PATTERN MON WHEN A
FRONT DISSECTED THE AREA INTO A CLOUDY...COOL REGIME OVER THE
LOWLANDS AND A SUNNIER...WARMER REGIME OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
ALSO...DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE E TRIES TO WORK WWD IN THE ERLY MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...NOW SW OF...AND
BY WED AFTERNOON S OF...THE FCST AREA.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE RUNNING EVEN BELOW RAW GUIDANCE AND SHOULD
CONTINUE RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH LESS
SO BY WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS UPPER
LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
AREA...WILL KEEP MOUNTAINS COOL AND CLOUDY...ALONG WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A WAVE...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK...WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AS WELL AS
THE LOWLAND COUNTIES FROM NEAR CKB TO CRW ARE IFR...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
SEEN IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWLANDS.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE IN MANY LOCATIONS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
THE SAME...OR EVEN WORSEN OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 13Z...AS DRIER LOW-LEVEL
AIR BUILDS IN.

LIGHT NORTH WINDS...SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER
TONIGHT...WITH A SHIFT TO SE ON WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OVERALL TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE AREA MAY VARY.

.AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JSH/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JSH


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