Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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478
FXXX10 KWNP 080031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Feb 08 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 08-Feb 10 2016 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 08-Feb 10 2016

            Feb 08     Feb 09     Feb 10
00-03UT        4          4          3
03-06UT        4          3          2
06-09UT        3          2          2
09-12UT        3          4          2
12-15UT        3          4          1
15-18UT        3          3          2
18-21UT        3          3          2
21-00UT        4          3          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 08-Feb 10 2016

              Feb 08  Feb 09  Feb 10
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 08-Feb 10 2016

              Feb 08        Feb 09        Feb 10
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts exists during
the forecast period due to flare potential from Region 2494 (S12W29).



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