Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 160031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Sep 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 16-Sep 18 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 16-Sep 18 2014

            Sep 16     Sep 17     Sep 18
00-03UT        2          2          3
03-06UT        1          2          3
06-09UT        1          2          2
09-12UT        1          2          2
12-15UT        1          3          1
15-18UT        1          3          1
18-21UT        2          3          1
21-00UT        2          4          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 16-Sep 18 2014

              Sep 16  Sep 17  Sep 18
S1 or greater   15%     10%      5%

Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storm exists on days one and two (16-17 Sep) due to potential flare
activity from Regions 2157 (S15W74) and 2158 (N16W66).

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 16-Sep 18 2014

              Sep 16        Sep 17        Sep 18
R1-R2           50%           40%           30%
R3 or greater   15%           10%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts exists
for the next three days (16-18 Sep) with a slight chance for R3 (Strong)
activity on days one and two due to flare potential from Regions 2157
and 2158 before they rotate around the west limb on day three.


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