Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 271231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Aug 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 27-Aug 29 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 27-Aug 29 2014

            Aug 27     Aug 28     Aug 29
00-03UT        1          4          2
03-06UT        3          3          2
06-09UT        4          3          2
09-12UT        4          3          2
12-15UT        5 (G1)     2          2
15-18UT        3          2          2
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        4          3          2

Rationale: There is a chance for a G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic
storms on day 1 (27 August) in response to the arrival of CMEs from 22
August.  Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day 2 as CME
effects wane and a coronal hole becomes geoeffective.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 27-Aug 29 2014

              Aug 27  Aug 28  Aug 29
S1 or greater   10%     10%      5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms, particularly from Region 2146.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 27-Aug 29 2014

              Aug 27        Aug 28        Aug 29
R1-R2           40%           40%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts
through the period.


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