Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 280030
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Aug 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 28-Aug 30 2015 is 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 28-Aug 30 2015

            Aug 28     Aug 29     Aug 30
00-03UT        7 (G3)     4          3
03-06UT        6 (G2)     3          3
06-09UT        6 (G2)     3          2
09-12UT        5 (G1)     3          1
12-15UT        4          2          1
15-18UT        4          2          1
18-21UT        3          3          2
21-00UT        3          3          2

Rationale: Severe (G3-Strong) storm conditions are expected early on day
one (28 Aug) due to lingering CME effects and the arrival of the CIR and
subsequent negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Activity is expected to wane slightly throughout the day, but active
levels are expected continue into day two (29 Aug) under the influence
of the CH HSS. Conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on day
three (30 Aug) as CH HSS effects begin to subside.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 28-Aug 30 2015

              Aug 28  Aug 29  Aug 30
S1 or greater   10%     10%      5%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at background levels for all three days, but with a slight chance for an
S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm on days one and two (28-29 Aug). The
slight chance for solar radiation storms is expected to diminish by day
three (30 Aug) as Region 2403 slowly decays and its flare potential
decreases.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 27 2015 0544 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 28-Aug 30 2015

              Aug 28        Aug 29        Aug 30
R1-R2           60%           55%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%            5%

Rationale: (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely with a
slight chance for (R3, Strong or greater) radio blackouts on days one
and two (28-29 Aug) due to the flare potential of Region 2403. Activity
is expected to continue at slightly elevated levels into day three (30
Aug) with a chance for (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts.



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