Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 211230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Oct 21 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 21-Oct 23 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 21-Oct 23 2014

            Oct 21     Oct 22     Oct 23
00-03UT        3          3          4
03-06UT        2          3          3
06-09UT        3          4          2
09-12UT        3          3          3
12-15UT        3          3          3
15-18UT        3          3          3
18-21UT        3          2          3
21-00UT        4          3          3

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a G1 (Minor) or greater
geomagnetic storm in response to a high speed solar wind stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 21-Oct 23 2014

              Oct 21  Oct 22  Oct 23
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storm from Region 2192.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 20 2014 1637 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 21-Oct 23 2014

              Oct 21        Oct 22        Oct 23
R1-R2           65%           65%           65%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight but
persistent chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackout from
Region 2192.



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