Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 241230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Oct 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 24-Oct 26 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 24-Oct 26 2014

            Oct 24     Oct 25     Oct 26
00-03UT        3          3          3
03-06UT        1          3          2
06-09UT        2          2          2
09-12UT        2          2          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        3          2          2
18-21UT        4          2          2
21-00UT        4          2          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2014

              Oct 24  Oct 25  Oct 26
S1 or greater   35%     40%     45%

Rationale: A chance for a solar radiation storm at or above the S1
(Minor) levels exists over the next three days (24-26 Oct) as Region
2192 rotates into a more threatening position on the solar disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 24 2014 0748 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2014

              Oct 24        Oct 25        Oct 26
R1-R2           85%           85%           85%
R3 or greater   45%           45%           45%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected with a
chance for X-class (R3 or greater) radio blackouts for the next three
days (24-26 Oct).



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