Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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AXUS71 KLWX 191347
DGTLWX
DCC001-MDC003-005-013-025-027-031-033-510-VAC003-013-047-059-061-
079-113-137-153-177-179-510-540-600-610-630-683-685-022330-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
847 AM EST THU JAN 19 2017

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE BY THE END OF JANUARY...

SYNOPSIS...
AS OF JANUARY 17TH 2017...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES
MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING MOST OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND...THE IMMEDIATE
WASHINGTON D.C. METRO AREA...AND PARTS OF THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
MAINLY NEAR THE RAPIDAN RIVER. THIS IS UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST
TWO WEEKS. ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS STILL EXIST ACROSS MOST
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR ALL OF SAINT MARY`S
COUNTY MARYLAND...PORTIONS OF CHARLES...CALVERT...AND KING GEORGE
COUNTIES...AND MOST OF THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
A DROUGHT WATCH DECLARED BY THE STATE OF MARYLAND FOR ITS WESTERN
DROUGHT REGION WAS CANCELLED AT THE END OF DECEMBER. A DROUGHT
WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE STATE WAS STILL IN EFFECT AT
THE END OF DECEMBER. NO FURTHER ASSESSMENT HAS OCCURRED SINCE BUT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE.

AS OF JANUARY 19TH 2017...THERE WERE NO OTHER DROUGHT
DECLARATIONS ISSUED FOR THE AREA BY LOCAL OR STATE GOVERNMENTS.

SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL MAINLY IN AN AREA CENTERED ON
THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST MONTH OR SO...AND NOW THE WORST AREA IS ONLY AROUND THE
10TH PERCENTILE.

GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...IMPACTS OF THE DRY WEATHER HAVE BEEN
MINIMAL.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
SO FAR IN JANUARY...OBSERVED RAINFALL HAS BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND A
HALF AND THREE INCHES. THIS IS ABOVE NORMAL EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
NELSON COUNTY. THIS NOW PUTS MOST OF THE AREA NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
ON PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 TO 45 DAYS. LONGER-TERM DEFICITS
STILL EXIST BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...ARE BECOMING LESS
IMPORTANT THAN THE ONGOING WETTER WEATHER.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE FIRST WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...THROUGH JANUARY 26TH...IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HAVE TEMPERATURES AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. RAIN IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY JANUARY 20TH...AND AGAIN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY JANUARY 22ND AND 23RD. TOTAL EXPECTED RAIN FROM THESE
COMBINED EVENTS IS BETWEEN ONE AND A HALF AND THREE INCHES...WITH
POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

THE SECOND WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...THROUGH FEBRUARY 1ST...
CURRENTLY FAVORS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION...AS IT APPEARS THE STORM TRACK WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE REGION.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL 2017 SLIGHTLY
FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS DOES NOT NECESSARILY
MEAN A RETURN TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK
FOR THE SAME PERIOD INDICATES THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
EASE.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE
BELOW NORMAL VALUES MAINLY IN THE LOWER POTOMAC...SOUTH FORK
SHENANDOAH...AND RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER BASINS. UPCOMING RAIN EVENTS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO ALLOW GROUNDWATER AND BASE STREAMFLOW TO
RECHARGE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THESE BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS. IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME OR ALL OF THE MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY INDICATED WILL BE EASED BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED UPDATE TO THIS STATEMENT WILL BE ON THURSDAY
FEBRUARY 2ND 2017. AN UPDATE MAY BE ISSUED SOONER IF THE DROUGHT
DEPICTION CHANGES SIGNIFICANTLY. IN THE INTERIM...WEEKLY UPDATES TO
THE DROUGHT MONITOR STATUS CAN BE FOUND AT THE US DROUGHT MONITOR
LINK BELOW OR ON OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WASHINGTON/DROUGHT.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES:

US DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
NWS DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/DROUGHT
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV
US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA`S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL
INFORMATION, THE USDA, STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATOLOGISTS, AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT
HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES, STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES, THE USDA, USACE, AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT, PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
43858 WEATHER SERVICE ROAD
STERLING, VA 20166
PHONE: 703-996-2200
EMAIL: LWXWEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

JE



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