Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
330 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook /7/...

This is the seventh flood outlook for the 2017 winter/spring
season. Flood outlooks are issued bi-weekly by the National
Weather Service in Burlington Vermont to summarize the flood
potential due to snowmelt and break up of river ice across central
and northern Vermont and northern New York.

...Overview...

The flood potential due to snowmelt is above normal in Vermont`s
Northeast Kingdom, and near normal elsewhere. There is a low risk
for ice jams in far northern Vermont and Northern New York,
otherwise the ice jam threat has ended for the season.

...Snow Depths and Water Equivalent...

Snow pack has seen small additions following the mid month snow
storm. Overall snow depths declined as previous snow settled, but
water content increased.

Snow depths in the Adirondacks of northern New York and northeast
Vermont were 6 to 12 inches in the lower elevations, and 1 to 2
feet over the higher terrain. The remainder of Vermont and the
Champlain and Saint Lawrence Valleys of New York had 6 to 10
inches of snow on the ground, with 1 to 2 feet in the higher
terrain. Mountain summits in both states had considerable higher
amounts, with two to three feet or even more near the summits.

Snow water equivalent, or the amount of water held by the
snowpack, held steady over the past two weeks with melt episodes
offset by light additions from rain and snow. Lower elevations
region-wide were 1 to 3 inches, and 3 to 6 inches over the higher
terrain. Highest water content was centered over the high peaks
of the Adirondacks, the northern Green Mountains, and Vermont`s
Northeast Kingdom, where water content was as high as 6 to 10
inches.

Vermont`s Northeast Kingdom had above normal snow cover and water
content, while the remaining areas were near to slightly below
normal.

...River and Soil Conditions...

Northern rivers had a light ice cover estimated at 1 to 2 inches
thick. While not a big ice jam threat, a small risk for ice jams
remain until the ice clears out completely. Elsewhere in central
and southern Vermont and the central Adirondacks river were ice
free.

River flows and soil moisture were near normal, as this is the
typical time for peak snowmelt and runoff.

Soils are generally frozen, in the valleys where there has been
bare ground at times through the winter. Ground frost sensors
showing frost depths between 6 to 10 inches deep. In higher
elevations where snow cover has persisted the ground is generally
unfrozen.

Ground water levels have rebounded from late summer low levels,
and USGS monitoring wells show most ground water levels across
the North Country were near normal.

Lake Champlain remains above normal following its rise after late
February. The lake level should trend near normal in the coming
weeks. While the probability of flooding on Lake Champlain
remains low this spring, it has increased slightly with the
recent snowpack additions.

...Weather Outlook...

The region has been in a cold pattern the last half of March, and
another snow producing system will impact the region Friday and
Saturday. Longer term forecasts indicate a trend toward warmer
springlike weather typical of the season, with weather systems
producing mostly rain through mid april. The official outlook
through mid April calls for both temperatures and precipitation to
average above normal.

...Summary...

The winter/spring flood potential is near normal across much of
the region, except above normal in the Northeast Kingdom of
Vermont. Snow pack is widespread and contains appreciable water
content. Ice remains on far northern rivers and poses a small ice
jam threat.

It is important to note that heavy rainfall can result in
flooding at any time of the year, even in areas that have little
or no snow on the ground.

The next Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued on Thursday
April 13.

Access current weather conditions and forecasts on our web site
at www.weather.gov/btv.

$$

Hanson



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