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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
000
FGUS73 KIND 121730
ESFIND
ILC023-033-047-059-101-185-193-INC005-011-013-015-021-023-027-031-
035-045-055-057-059-063-065-067-071-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-
107-109-119-121-133-135-139-145-153-157-159-165-167-171-211800-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
130 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 6/17/2013 - 9/15/2013
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:WHITE RIVER
ANDERSON 10.0 15.0 18.0 : 16 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
EAGLE VALLEY POWE 603.0 607.0 610.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
CENTERTON 12.0 16.0 19.0 : 18 22 <5 <5 <5 <5
ELLISTON 18.0 25.0 29.0 : 33 41 8 11 <5 <5
EDWARDSPORT 15.0 22.0 25.0 : 35 43 6 8 <5 <5
HAZLETON 16.0 24.0 28.0 : 24 34 <5 <5 <5 <5
INDIANAPOLIS 16.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MUNCIE 9.0 12.0 15.0 : 9 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
NOBLESVILLE 14.0 19.0 21.0 : 9 18 6 7 <5 5
NORA 11.0 16.0 19.0 : 14 20 5 8 <5 <5
NEWBERRY 13.0 19.0 24.0 : 31 37 12 15 <5 <5
PETERSBURG 16.0 23.5 26.0 : 28 35 <5 <5 <5 <5
RAVENSWOOD 6.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
SPENCER 14.0 20.0 24.0 : 28 35 <5 8 <5 <5
:EAST FORK WHITE RIVER
COLUMBUS 9.0 14.0 16.0 : 9 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
RIVERVALE 20.0 30.0 35.0 : 14 15 <5 <5 <5 <5
BEDFORD 20.0 27.0 32.0 : 10 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
SEYMOUR 12.0 17.0 19.0 : 34 31 <5 <5 <5 <5
SHOALS 20.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
WILLIAMS 8.0 14.0 19.0 : 12 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WABASH RIVER
COVINGTON 16.0 24.0 28.0 : 30 45 <5 <5 <5 <5
TERRE HAUTE 14.0 22.0 28.0 : 36 53 6 5 <5 <5
HUTSONVILLE LEGAC 16.0 24.0 28.0 : 44 57 6 <5 <5 <5
LAFAYETTE 11.0 20.0 25.0 : 35 51 <5 <5 <5 <5
MOUNT CARMEL 19.0 25.0 32.0 : 14 18 <5 5 <5 <5
MONTEZUMA 14.0 24.0 30.0 : 45 59 6 6 <5 <5
RIVERTON 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 34 53 8 6 <5 <5
VINCENNES 16.0 22.0 28.0 : 15 18 7 5 <5 <5
:EEL RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 17 22 13 15 <5 8
:SUGAR CREEK
CRAWFORDSVILLE 8.0 10.0 14.0 : 7 10 <5 6 <5 <5
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER
VERNON 17.0 27.0 32.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG BLUE RIVER
SHELBYVILLE 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 24 24 11 10 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 6/17/2013 - 9/15/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:WHITE RIVER
ANDERSON 4.4 4.5 5.2 6.0 7.8 11.7 13.7
EAGLE VALLEY POWE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CENTERTON 1.5 1.6 3.0 6.0 10.1 14.3 14.9
ELLISTON 6.6 7.6 9.8 13.8 20.2 24.8 25.4
EDWARDSPORT 4.5 5.6 8.2 11.8 17.2 21.2 22.2
HAZLETON 3.3 5.1 6.5 10.1 16.0 19.9 22.3
INDIANAPOLIS 3.6 3.9 4.6 6.0 8.9 10.9 14.2
MUNCIE 4.2 4.3 4.7 5.3 6.5 8.7 11.2
NOBLESVILLE 4.1 4.3 5.4 6.8 10.8 14.0 20.7
NORA 2.6 2.9 4.0 5.1 8.0 12.2 16.9
NEWBERRY 3.2 4.1 6.0 8.9 14.6 20.0 21.0
PETERSBURG 3.5 5.5 7.1 10.8 16.9 19.8 21.9
RAVENSWOOD 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SPENCER 3.3 3.9 5.5 9.1 14.9 18.7 20.0
:EAST FORK WHITE RIVER
COLUMBUS 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.6 4.1 9.0 10.0
RIVERVALE 5.6 6.9 8.9 11.8 14.4 22.7 23.4
BEDFORD 3.7 4.2 7.3 10.1 13.1 20.4 20.9
SEYMOUR 4.0 4.5 5.9 9.2 13.6 16.1 16.9
SHOALS 4.2 4.4 5.3 6.5 9.5 16.2 17.0
WILLIAMS 1.8 2.1 2.8 3.7 5.0 8.6 10.6
:WABASH RIVER
COVINGTON 7.2 7.6 10.5 13.8 16.7 19.7 21.9
TERRE HAUTE 3.5 3.9 7.4 12.4 15.5 19.9 22.6
HUTSONVILLE LEGAC 6.9 7.3 10.9 15.5 17.6 20.6 23.4
LAFAYETTE 4.2 4.6 6.8 8.9 12.6 14.8 15.4
MOUNT CARMEL 4.9 6.1 8.5 11.8 15.3 20.7 24.8
MONTEZUMA 5.4 5.9 9.2 13.1 17.9 23.1 24.4
RIVERTON 5.0 5.7 9.3 13.2 16.1 19.2 22.6
VINCENNES 5.1 5.4 8.0 11.6 13.5 17.4 21.9
:EEL RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 4.6 4.8 6.1 8.8 12.4 22.0 22.6
:SUGAR CREEK
CRAWFORDSVILLE 1.5 1.7 2.3 3.1 4.1 6.6 9.3
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER
VERNON 4.0 4.2 5.4 6.1 7.0 11.7 14.5
:BIG BLUE RIVER
SHELBYVILLE 4.6 4.7 5.9 6.9 10.8 15.3 16.1
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/IND FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED NEXT WEDNESDAY.
$$
- National Weather Service
- Northern Indiana Weather Forecast Office
- 7506 E 850 N
- Syracuse, IN 46567
- 574-834-1104
- Page Author: IWX Webmaster
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- Page last modified: Jun 3rd, 2013 13:59 UTC