Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
208 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017

...Spring Flood Outlook for South Florida...
...Flood threat is very low for South Florida this spring...


SYNOPSIS...
South Florida has seen below normal rainfall since October 2016,
as cold fronts have been mostly dry when they moved through South
Florida. This has allowed for the development of moderate drought
conditions(D1) over the northern portion of South Florida
including the west coast metro area. The rest of South Florida
has also developed into Abnormally Dry Conditions (D0), except for
the southeastern areas of South Florida where no drought
conditions exist at this time.

Here are some rainfall totals and departures from normal at
several sites across South Florida from OCT 1, 2016 to MAR 1,
2017.


AIRPORTS RAINFALL : DEPARTURE OCT 1 - MAR 1   OCT 1 - MAR 1

PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL      :  12.38      :     -6.95
NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT      :   7.83      :     -4.25
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL :  11.23      :     -7.95
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL           :  17.60      :     +2.01

SECONDARY OBSERVATION SITES

ORTONA LOCK      (HENDRY)     :   3.98      :     -7.78
LA BELLE         (HENDRY)     :   5.47      :     -6.38
MOORE HAVEN LOCK (GLADES)     :   3.84      :     -6.28
OPA LOCKA       (MIAMI-DADE)  :  12.20      :     -4.67
HOMESTEAD       (MIAMI-DADE)  :   9.74      :     -4.59
MIAMI BEACH     (MIAMI-DADE)  :  18.15      :     +4.39
TAMIAMI AIRPORT (MIAMI-DADE)  :  12.89      :     -2.69
PERRINE         (MIAMI-DADE)  :  12.34      :     -3.52
NORTH PERRY AIRPORT (BROWARD) :  15.64      :     -2.26
FT. LAUD EXECUTIVE (BROWARD)  :  13.57      :     -2.06
HIALEAH         (MIAMI-DADE)  :  19.01      :     +1.45
PALM BEACH GARDENS(PALM BEACH):   11.28      :     -6.71


                                    PERCENT OF NORMAL
                                 OCT 1,2016 - MAR 1,2017

ORTONA LOCK                   34% (driest dry season so far)
MOORE HAVEN LOCK              38% (6TH driest dry season so far)
LA BELLE                      46% (5TH driest dry season so far)
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL 59% (5TH driest dry season so far)
PALM BEACH GARDENS            63% (3RD driest dry season so far)
PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL      64% (14TH driest dry season so far)
NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT      65% (21ST driest dry season so far)
HOMESTEAD                     68% (7TH driest dry season so far)
OPA LOCKA                     72% (9TH driest dry season so far)
PERRINE                       78% (17TH driest dry season so far)
TAMIAMI AIRPORT               83% (15TH driest dry season so far)
FORT LAUDERDALE EXECUTIVE     87% (9TH driest dry season so far)
NORTH PERRY AIRPORT           87% (9TH driest dry season so far)
HAILEAH                      108%
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL          113%
MIAMI BEACH                  132%


HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS...

The wells over the west coast of South Florida and the Lake
Okeechobee region are running at 10 to 25 percent of normal
levels for this time of year, as the wells over the east coast
metro areas are running near normal levels.

The underground water reservoirs in Palm Beach County were around
16.4 feet which was near normal. In Broward County, the
reservoirs where around 11.8 feet which was 0.8 feet above normal.
In Miami-Dade County, the underground water reservoirs were
around 9.5 feet which was 0.7 feet below normal.

The level of Lake Okeechobee was around 13.4 feet as of March 2,
which was around 1.1 feet below the normal level of 14.5 feet.
The level of Fisheating Creek was 0.8 feet as of MARCH 2,
which was around 1.3 feet below the normal level of 2.1 feet for
this time of year.


FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

As of March 1st, the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was
500 to 550 over the eastern half of South Florida with the
western half of South Florida in the 550 to 600.
This puts all of South Florida in a moderate risk of wild fires.

RESPONSE/ACTIONS...

The South Florida Water Management District has continued the
yearly water restriction for all of South Florida. For more
information on the water shortage conditions, please visit the
South Florida water management web site at WWW.SFWMD.GOV/WATERWATCH.

OUTLOOK...

High pressure will slowly move east across the Southeastern
United states this weekend and into the western Atlantic waters
by early next week. This will allow for an breezy to windy
northeast wind flow over South Florida with a few showers
affecting the east coast metro areas.

The Climate Prediction Center`s Precipitation outlook for the
next 8 to 14 days calls for an below normal rainfall chance
across South Florida. The long term outlook for March through
May is for an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall
across South Florida.

The next update on the drought conditions for South Florida will
be around the middle of March, unless conditions change before
that time. Stay tune to NOAA weather radio and other local media
for further details and updates.

$$

Baxter



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