Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS

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MDC023-OHC013-019-029-031-059-067-081-111-119-121-157-PAC003-005-
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049-051-061-069-077-093-103-191745-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1232 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

|...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...|

|THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
AND NEAR NORMAL NORTH OF THE MAINSTEM.

AN ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS WIDESPREAD FLOODING COULD
OCCUR WITH WATER LEVELS HAVING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS OCCASIONAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH
WATER LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING TO
SUMMARIZE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
ACROSS THE REGION.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...SNOW PACK DEPTH AND
WATER CONTENT...ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS AND THE LAKE...SOIL
MOISTURE...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

..OVERVIEW...
HE PREVAILING STORM TRACK DURING WINTER HAS
RESEMBLED AN EL NINO SIGNATURE ACROSS THE U.S....PREDICTED SINCE THE
SUMMER OF 2014...WITH STORM SYSTEMS HITTING THE WEST COAST...THEN
MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE CURVING UP THE EAST COAST OR OUT
INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN. THE LACK OF PHASING OF THE
POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS HAS RESULTED IN MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY/LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE.

FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL WINTER 2015...TEMPERATURES IN THE OHIO
VALLEY/LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE WERE BELOW NORMAL...AND PRECIPITATION
AVERAGED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY HAVING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...
MONTHLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THE MAINSTEM. MOST RESERVOIR LEVELS
IN THE REGION ARE AT NORMAL WINTER POOL LEVELS. RESERVOIR STORAGE
FOR HALF THE RESERVOIRS IN THE REGION ARE AT 3 PERCENT OR LESS OF
CAPACITY.CONEMAUGH...LOYALHANNA...STONEWALL JACKSON...TYGART AND
YOUGHIOGHENY RESERVOIRS ARE USING FROM 14 TO 43 PERCENT CAPACITY.
WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA/SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
MAINSTEM.

...SNOW AND ICE COVERAGE...
A A MODERATE SNOW PACK EXISTS ACROSS OHIO...PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES.

ICE ACCUMULATION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN WITH
ICE RANGING FROM 24 TO 72 INCHES IN THICKNESS. ICE HAS ALSO FORMED
IN A NUMBER OF SMALLER BASINS AS WELL. RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH
WATER HAS CLEANED MOST STREAMS AND RIVERS OF ICE SOUTH OF THE
MAINSTEM.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOILS ARE NORMALLY MOIST NORTH OF THE MAINSTEM...AND ABNORMALLY WET
SOUTH OF THE MAINSTEM.

...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS SUGGESTS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

...LONG TERM OUTLOOKS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BREAKING THE EL
NINO SIGNATURE PERSISTING THIS PAST WINTER. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE...MILDER TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK THIS SPRING WITH OCCASIONAL PHASING OF
THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET STREAMS.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS IS NEAR NORMAL. IN THE LONG TERM...THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL.

FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO
NORMAL AT SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER
OUTLOOK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS
NORMAL TO VIEW THE RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

HYDROLOGICALLY...THE RESULTING STREAMFLOWS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL
SOUTH AND NEAR NORMAL NORTH OF THE MAINSTEM.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
MARCH 19 2015.|

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