Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FGUS71 KPHI 161826
ESFPHI
DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-
019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-029-045-
077-089-091-095-101-302130-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 9 (FINAL ISSUANCE
OF THE SEASON)

THIS IS THE NINTH IN A SERIES OF ANNUAL WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER
DELAWARE, LEHIGH, SCHUYLKILL, PASSAIC AND RARITAN RIVER BASINS.
THESE STATEMENTS WILL PROVIDE INFORMATION ON FLOOD THREAT CONDITIONS
SUCH AS RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND ITS
WATER EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE CONDITIONS, STREAMFLOW, FUTURE
PRECIPITATION AND OTHERS.

THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OR EXTENT OF ANY FUTURE
RIVER FLOODING.

IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR
WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF YEAR, EVEN
WHEN THE OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOW.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD, APRIL 16 TO 30, 2015.

IN THE MOUNT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA), THE
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS NORMAL.

NOTE - FOR THE HEADWATERS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, SEE THE STATEMENT
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) FROM OUR BINGHAMTON (BGM), NEW YORK OFFICE.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - BELOW NORMAL. BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3.0 INCHES OF
LIQUID HAVE BEEN RECORDED OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. PRECIPITATION
DEPARTURE MAPS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE
WATER SUPPLY TAB).

SNOW COVER - NO SNOW EXISTS ACROSS ANY BASIN. SNOW DEPTH AND BASIN-
AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE SEASONAL INTEREST TAB) OR
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV (UNDER THE NATIONAL ANALYSIS TAB).

RIVER ICE - NO RIVER ICE EXISTS ACROSS ANY BASIN.

STREAMFLOW - BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL. REAL TIME WATER DATA IS
AVAILABLE FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY BY VISITING
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV.

SOIL MOISTURE - BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MID-DELAWARE BASIN, NORMAL
ELSEWHERE. SOIL MOISTURE MONITORING CHARTS FROM NOAA`S CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES...
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/SOILMST/SOILMST.SHTML
AS WELL AS WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

GROUND WATER - USGS MONITORING WELLS INDICATE THAT CURRENT GROUND
WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION ARE VARIABLE, RANGING FROM BELOW
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTP://GROUNDWATERWATCH.USGS.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - WATER SUPPLY AND FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS IN
THE AREA ARE RUNNING NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER
OFFSHORE TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING
TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND PULL THE FRONT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. MODERATE RAIN
IS POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EXIT TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BEGIN BUILDING TOWARD OUR AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

SUMMARY - TAKING ALL OF THE INCLUDED VARIABLES INTO CONSIDERATION,
THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS NORMAL.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST OUTLOOK UNTIL NEXT SEASON.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI

$$

SUMMARY/OVERVIEW OF FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH APRIL 30, 2015:

OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...NORMAL
CURRENT FLOODING...NONE
RECENT PRECIPITATION...BELOW NORMAL
SNOW COVER...NORMAL
RIVER ICE...NORMAL
STREAMFLOW...BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL
SOIL MOISTURE...BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL
GROUND WATER...BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...NORMAL

$$

KRUZDLO



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