- Warnings
- Observations
- Forecasts
- Text Messages
- Forecast Models
- Climate
- Weather Safety
- Education/Outreach
- Information Center
- Contact Us
RSS Feeds
Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions: 1
000
FGUS63 KMSR 021331
ESGCIW
IOWA RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
831 AM CDT THU MAY 02 2013
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 5/7/2013 - 8/5/2013
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Cedar River
LANM5 18.0 20.0 22.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
ASTM5 15.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Turtle Creek
TRCM5 10.5 12.0 14.0 29 19 26 18 16 13
:Cedar River
CCYI4 12.0 15.0 18.0 24 18 14 6 6 <5
JANI4 13.0 15.0 18.0 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:West Fork Cedar River
FNHI4 17.0 18.0 20.0 19 11 13 8 <5 <5
:Winnebago River
MCWI4 10.0 14.5 15.5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Shell Rock River
SHRI4 13.5 18.0 20.0 37 16 6 <5 <5 <5
:Beaver Creek
NHRI4 12.0 13.0 14.0 19 8 8 <5 <5 <5
:Cedar River
CEDI4 88.0 90.0 93.0 >95 39 >95 18 16 8
ALOI4 13.0 19.0 21.0 >95 18 <5 <5 <5 <5
VINI4 15.0 18.0 19.0 37 9 6 <5 <5 <5
CIDI4 12.0 14.0 16.0 >95 13 27 9 11 <5
CNEI4 13.0 15.0 16.5 >95 37 >95 21 42 9
:Iowa River
ROWI4 12.5 15.0 17.0 29 32 <5 <5 <5 <5
MIWI4 19.0 23.0 26.0 18 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
MROI4 14.0 15.5 18.5 >95 60 >95 47 18 9
IOWI4 22.0 23.0 25.0 13 6 9 <5 <5 <5
:English River
KALI4 14.0 16.0 18.0 45 31 27 24 18 14
:Iowa River
LNTI4 15.0 16.5 18.0 21 19 19 16 16 11
CJTI4 19.0 22.0 23.0 >95 27 41 11 23 9
WAPI4 20.0 22.0 25.0 >95 37 >95 21 21 6
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0430 Z DH12 /DC1304301331/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
: Valid Period: 5/7/2013 - 8/5/2013
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Cedar River
LANM5 14.0/ 14.0/ 14.3/ 15.0/ 16.1/ 17.3/ 18.2
ASTM5 7.9/ 7.9/ 8.1/ 8.8/ 11.0/ 13.1/ 14.4
:Turtle Creek
TRCM5 7.0/ 7.1/ 7.4/ 8.7/ 12.5/ 15.6/ 17.6
:Cedar River
CCYI4 8.6/ 8.6/ 8.7/ 9.3/ 12.4/ 16.7/ 19.7
JANI4 8.7/ 8.7/ 8.7/ 9.0/ 10.0/ 12.8/ 16.6
:West Fork Cedar River
FNHI4 14.2/ 14.2/ 14.2/ 14.3/ 16.3/ 19.0/ 20.5
:Winnebago River
MCWI4 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.8/ 7.3/ 8.3/ 9.3/ 13.6
:Shell Rock River
SHRI4 12.2/ 12.2/ 12.3/ 12.7/ 14.1/ 16.5/ 18.1
:Beaver Creek
NHRI4 8.9/ 8.9/ 8.9/ 9.5/ 11.5/ 12.9/ 13.5
:Cedar River
CEDI4 91.2/ 91.2/ 91.2/ 91.4/ 91.9/ 94.0/ 95.7
ALOI4 13.8/ 13.8/ 13.8/ 14.0/ 14.6/ 16.9/ 19.6
VINI4 14.6/ 14.6/ 14.6/ 14.8/ 15.3/ 16.9/ 19.1
CIDI4 12.7/ 12.7/ 12.8/ 13.2/ 14.0/ 16.5/ 19.4
CNEI4 15.8/ 15.8/ 15.9/ 16.3/ 16.9/ 18.2/ 20.5
:Iowa River
ROWI4 9.4/ 9.4/ 10.0/ 11.3/ 12.8/ 14.0/ 15.4
MIWI4 17.8/ 17.8/ 17.8/ 17.8/ 18.4/ 19.6/ 20.7
IOWI4 18.0/ 18.3/ 18.7/ 19.0/ 19.4/ 23.1/ 26.4
MROI4 16.7/ 16.7/ 16.8/ 17.2/ 18.2/ 19.1/ 19.7
:English River
KALI4 9.8/ 9.9/ 10.4/ 13.4/ 16.4/ 20.8/ 22.3
:Iowa River
LNTI4 12.9/ 12.9/ 12.9/ 13.0/ 14.3/ 19.3/ 21.3
CJTI4 20.3/ 20.4/ 20.5/ 21.4/ 22.8/ 26.6/ 29.5
WAPI4 22.4/ 22.4/ 22.6/ 23.4/ 24.8/ 26.9/ 28.3
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0430 Z DH12 /DC1304301331/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
: Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
: Valid Period: 5/7/2013 - 8/5/2013
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Cedar River
LANM5 9.6/ 9.5/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.3/ 9.3/ 9.3
ASTM5 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.3
:Turtle Creek
TRCM5 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.8
:Cedar River
CCYI4 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1
JANI4 2.0/ 1.8/ 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.2
:West Fork Cedar River
FNHI4 7.0/ 6.8/ 6.7/ 6.6/ 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.4
:Winnebago River
MCWI4 3.8/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.1
:Shell Rock River
SHRI4 8.2/ 8.1/ 7.8/ 7.6/ 7.5/ 7.4/ 7.3
:Beaver Creek
NHRI4 4.0/ 3.8/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.0
:Cedar River
CEDI4 80.3/ 80.2/ 79.7/ 79.3/ 79.1/ 78.9/ 78.8
ALOI4 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.3/ 6.1/ 6.0/ 5.9/ 5.8
VINI4 4.4/ 4.4/ 3.8/ 3.4/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.7
CIDI4 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.1/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.7/ 3.6
CNEI4 7.9/ 7.8/ 7.3/ 7.0/ 6.8/ 6.6/ 6.4
:Iowa River
ROWI4 4.9/ 4.8/ 4.6/ 4.2/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.7
MIWI4 11.3/ 11.0/ 10.7/ 10.5/ 10.3/ 10.2/ 10.1
IOWI4 10.4/ 10.3/ 10.3/ 10.2/ 10.0/ 9.8/ 9.6
MROI4 8.8/ 8.1/ 7.6/ 7.3/ 7.0/ 6.8/ 6.6
:English River
KALI4 4.4/ 4.0/ 3.7/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.3
:Iowa River
LNTI4 7.7/ 7.1/ 6.3/ 6.0/ 5.7/ 5.5/ 5.3
CJTI4 13.1/ 12.7/ 11.1/ 10.4/ 10.1/ 9.8/ 9.6
WAPI4 15.1/ 14.7/ 13.3/ 12.4/ 12.1/ 11.8/ 11.6
.END
:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.
$$
- National Weather Service
- Northern Indiana Weather Forecast Office
- 7506 E 850 N
- Syracuse, IN 46567
- 574-834-1104
- Page Author: IWX Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: w-iwx.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: May 1st, 2013 15:31 UTC