Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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FGUS61 KTIR 311228
ESGTIR
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
813 AM EDT Sunday May 31 2015

THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE

.WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...
The outlook for June calls for normal conditions across the northern Ohio Valley
and a turn to wetter than normal across the southern reaches of the Ohio Valley.
This will results in near normal streamflows in the northern half of the region
and above normal streamflows in the southern part of the region. Lingering below
normal streamflows in the eastern basin will likely remain or improve to near
normal.
.....................................................................

.HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL...
Patchy areas of drought may develop in eastern areas of the basin but it should
be minor and patchy. Otherwise, with normal to above normal rainfall expected in
many areas of the region, expect small-scale hit and miss floods in June.
.....................................................................

.PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW...
RAINFALL DEPARTURES...
Rainfall was generally 2-5 inches across the reigon in May. Normal is generally
3.5 north to 4.5 to 5 inches south.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/ohrfc/drought.html

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
May soil moisture mainly near normal to slightly below normal across the Ohio
Valley in May.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...
Streamflows were above normal in the western half of the region and below normal
in the eastern half.

http://watermonitor.gov

.....................................................................

.ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR JUNE...

TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN
ARCTIC OSCILLATION
STRENGTH = RAINFALL DEPARTURE
Neutral = Near Normal

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
STRENGTH = RAINFALL DEPARTURE
Neutral to negative = Normal to slightly wetter

PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION
STRENGTH = RAINFALL DEPARTURE
Positive = Drier

ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION
STRENGTH = RAINFALL DEPARTURE
Weak to moderate El Nino = Normal to wetter

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov

.....................................................................

.TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...
Atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections are all over the place and usually
influence the weather less in the warm season than cool season. Soil moisture is
a significant player in summer rain across the region.

At the same time, El Nino continues to strengthen which tends to favor wetness
in southern and western sections of the region with some dryness in the upper
Ohio Valley.

Therefore, we expect near normal rainfall in June in northern and eastern
sections of the Ohio Valley and wetter than normal weather along with above
normal streamflows in western and southern reaches of the region.

.......................................................................

VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO.shtml

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

$$
Noel



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