Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

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000
FGUS65 KSTR 062311
ESPNM
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
FEB 6, 2014

WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 JAN PRECIP     OCT-JAN PREC    FEB 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES              55             80                85
ANIMAS                        95             85                95
LOWER SAN JUAN                25             80                 -

******************************************************************************
OBSERVED STREAMFLOW SUMMARY (% OF AVERAGE):

                         JAN FLOW       OCT-JAN FLOW
----------------------   --------       ------------
BASIN AVERAGE               90%             85%

******************************************************************************
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF FEB 1:

RESERVOIR                % AVERAGE    % CAPACITY
---------------------    ----------   -----------
NAVAJO                       74           57
VALLECITO                   151           76
LEMON                        82           43

TOTAL                        77           58

San Juan River Basin
                                  Period      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs                  Apr-Jul    197    92    265    131    215
  Carracas, nr                    Apr-Jul    320    84    460    215    380
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Blanco Dam  Apr-Jul     47    87     65     34     54
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam, blo    Apr-Jul     55    85     78     37     65
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr                     Apr-Jul    210   100    270    137    210
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield, nr     Apr-Jul    205   106    250    137    194
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta, nr       Apr-Jul    660    90    950    410    735
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr          Apr-Jul     50    91     70     40     55
Animas River
  Durango                         Apr-Jul    415   100    530    305    415
San Juan River
  Farmington                      Apr-Jul   1020    93   1430    660   1100
La Plata River
  Hesperus                        Apr-Jul   18.0    78     27   11.0     23
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                       Apr-Jul   1000    91   1420    635   1100
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr                      Apr-Jul     22    71     34   10.0     31

MP    Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
MP%   Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
RMAX  Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
RMIN  Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.


CBRFC/G. Smith

NNNN
$$



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