Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

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000
FGUS65 KSTR 131726
ESPNM
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
FEB 13, 2018




WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 JAN PRECIP     OCT-JAN PREC    FEB 13 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES              50             35                30
ANIMAS                        65             35                40
LOWER SAN JUAN                75             35                 -

******************************************************************************
OBSERVED STREAMFLOW SUMMARY (% OF AVERAGE):

                         JAN FLOW       OCT-JAN FLOW
----------------------   --------       ------------
BASIN AVERAGE               55%             60%

******************************************************************************
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF FEB 1:

RESERVOIR                % AVERAGE
---------------------    ----------
NAVAJO                       96
VALLECITO                   106
LEMON                        89

TOTAL                        96



Most Recent April-July Runoff Forecasts for the San Juan Basin:

San Juan River Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    100    47    160    125     75     50    215
  Carracas, nr             Apr-Jul    175    46    275    215    130    100    380
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Apr-Jul     30    56     45     36   22.0   15.0     54
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     35    54     52     42   24.0   19.0     65
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr              Apr-Jul     77    37    140     95     52     40    210
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  Apr-Jul     75    39    130     95     55     38    194
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Apr-Jul    260    35    500    340    180    120    735
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   Apr-Jul   18.0    33     35     25   12.0    9.0     55
Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    165    40    250    195    120     90    415
San Juan River
  Farmington               Apr-Jul    370    34    630    470    300    215   1100
La Plata River
  Hesperus                 Apr-Jul    7.0    30   13.0   10.0    4.5    3.0     23
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul    340    31    610    425    270    190   1100
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr               Apr-Jul   10.0    32     20     14    7.0    5.0     31

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/G. Smith



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