Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 291922
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
322 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY LIFTS INTO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-300830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
322 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1400...THEN SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (610).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.15 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (520).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.18 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-300830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
322 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2300. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2300 UNTIL 0200...THEN CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT...EXCEPT 87-92 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.29 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.30 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT...EXCEPT 90-95 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (480).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.23 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-300830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
322 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (610).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.15 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (410).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.14 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-300830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
322 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0500...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.18 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    0200...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.20 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.16 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-300830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
322 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.35 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.31 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.23 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JK



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