Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 310913
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
513 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

...OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE...

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY
...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN. PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER RETURNS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE LOW 40S TO NEAR 50 PERCENT.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-312015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
513 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (930).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52...EXCEPT 55-60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
                    3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-312015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
513 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
                    3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (810).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-312015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
513 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (770).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54...EXCEPT 56-61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (830).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-312015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
513 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (910).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1030).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-312015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
513 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG





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