Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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052
FNUS73 KABR 141343
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for BEAR CREEK RX...SD-CRA
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
843 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on August 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service in Aberdeen SD.

.DISCUSSION...
Weak high pressure will keep us dry today, with light winds,
however seasonally cool temperatures and recent rain will result
in high humidity. There is an inversion this morning which should
begin to mix out late this morning. Another storm system will
cross the area late tonight through Tuesday morning. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible with some thunderstorms.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent cloud).
Max temperature.....77-82.
Min humidity........37-42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming southwest
                    around 6 mph early in the morning, then,
                    becoming east 7 to 12 mph in the late morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......100-600 ft agl, increasing to 5800-6300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2200-41800), increasing to fair early.
Haines Index........4 (low).

TIME (MDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........51  57  56  55  54  57  60  62  62  61
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............57  63  68  71  73  76  79  79  79  79
RH..............85  73  63  56  50  45  41  40  40  41
20 FT wind dir..SW  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   7   9   9   10  10  12  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent cloud). A chance
                    of showers late in the evening. Showers likely
                    and a slight chance of thunderstorms after
                    midnight, then a chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms late.
Min temperature.....57-62.
Max humidity........92-97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
CWR.................50 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0100, then 2 until 0400, then 3.
Mixing height.......2500-3000 ft agl, decreasing to 100-600 ft agl
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800-43100).
Haines Index........4 (low).

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........61  64  68  71  78  84  90  89  87  86  86  87
Weather cov.....            CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Temp............77  74  70  68  67  65  64  64  63  62  61  60
RH..............45  51  59  65  68  75  78  78  84  87  90  96
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  E
20 FT wind spd..12  10  10  9   9   10  10  10  10  10  10  9
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent cloud). Showers likely
                    and a chance of thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....74-79.
Min humidity........62-67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 10 mph, becoming northeast
                    around 9 mph late. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
CWR.................63 percent.
LAL.................3.
Mixing height.......100-600 ft agl, increasing to 4500-5000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 14 to 19 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4400-41400), increasing to fair late.
Haines Index........3 (very low).

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........88  89  91  92  91  89  88  88  88  88  87  85
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............60  61  63  65  66  68  70  73  75  76  76  74
RH..............96  97  90  87  84  81  76  68  66  64  64  66
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE
20 FT wind spd..8   9   10  10  9   8   7   8   8   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.10  10  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  15  15  15

$$
Forecaster...Doering
Requested by...LELAND H BLACK
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1714372.0/ABR
.EMAIL leland.black@bia.gov



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