Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 271228
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR WELCOME LAKE PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
828 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (989) 732-9306, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AT THE BURN SITE. THE
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DROPS IN OVER THE REGION. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AGAIN TODAY, BUT NOT QUITE AS GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. WINDS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING AS THE LOW
PASSES OVERHEAD. BY WEDNESDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE
EAST.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 60.
RH..................74 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 5 TO 11 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300-6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 24
                    MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /400 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...POOR
                    /1300 KNOT-FT/.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........85  88  90  92  95  96  97  98  99
WEATHER COV.....        SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........
TEMP............52  54  58  60  60  60  60  60  59
RH..............74  69  64  62  62  62  62  62  64
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6   8   9   9   9   9   8   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.15  20  20  20  25  20  20  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 3.8 5.2 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.8 5.5 6.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.18  22  24  24  23  21  20  18  17
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/10000   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-5600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    5 TO 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (0-900 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........99  99  99  98  97  96  96  96  96  97  97  98
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............58  56  54  52  50  49  48  48  48  48  47  47
RH..............68  74  80  85  90  93  94  93  93  94  95  96
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   SE  E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..6   5   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.6 4.9 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.1 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.16  14  13  12  10  9   7   6   5   5   5   6
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/10001   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63.
RH..................MIN 60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 8 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600-7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (100-1100 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........98     98     96     93     82     81
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........S CHC
TEMP............47     47     53     60     63     63
RH..............98     100    89     72     60     60
20 FT WIND......E 2    E 2    E 3    E 5    E 6    E 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      10     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....900    2100   3600   5600   7300   7300
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 7   SE 10  E 13   E 15   SE 15  E 14
HAINES INDEX....4      3      3      3      4      5
VRATE KT-FT/10000      0      1      1      1      1

$$
FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON
REQUESTED BY...MATTHEW MALESIC
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1601062.0/APX



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