Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 261723
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for sunrise...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
123 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on September 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Cold front will cross northern lower Michigan
tonight ushering in much cooler temperatures for the balance of
the week. Northwesterly winds anticipated at the burn site
Wednesday with some gusts to around 20 mph. But temperatures will
run a good 20 degrees cooler Wednesday and minimum RH values
running 50 to 60 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers.
Temperature.........56 at ignition...Max 64.
RH..................96 percent at ignition...Min 60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 6 to 10
                    mph.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2700-4400
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph.
Vent rate...........Good /500 at ignition. Max...excellent /900/.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........79  75  69  62  59  54  51  52  53  53
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............56  57  60  62  64  64  64  63  63  61
RH..............96  93  81  72  65  63  63  62  60  62
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   8   9   9   10  9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.10  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.18  18  20  20  20  21  21  21  21  21
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate/100.......5   6   6   7   8   8   9   9   9   9

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Temperature.........Min 42.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......2700-4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 14 to 21 mph.
Vent rate...........Good to excellent (400-800).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........52  50  49  46  40  37  37  36  35  34  31  30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............59  57  56  54  52  50  49  48  47  46  45  44
RH..............67  69  72  74  80  83  83  86  86  89  89  93
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..8   6   6   6   5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3
20 FT wind gust.15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.21  20  20  20  20  20  18  17  16  15  15  14
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate/100.......8   7   7   7   6   6   6   5   5   4   4   4

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph late in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......2700-4600 ft AGL increasing to 5600-6700 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 17 mph.
Vent rate...........Good to excellent (300-1200).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........30     31     23     25     37     44
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............43     43     53     61     65     66
RH..............96     96     74     58     48     48
20 ft wind......NW 2   W 2    W 4    W 6    W 6    W 6
20 ft wind gust.              5             10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....2700   2900   3300   4600   6400   6700
Transport wind..NW 13  NW 12  NW 10  NW 14  NW 17  NW 17
Haines index....3      3      4      4      4      4
VRate/100.......3      3      4      6      11     12

$$
Forecaster...Brian Adam
Requested by...eric anderson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1716230.1/APX



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