Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FNUS73 KBIS 191205
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Jones Creek...NPS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
705 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 2200 MDT on July 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning. Gusty
and erratic winds are possible in the vicinity of showers and
thunderstorms. Outside of any shower or thunderstorm, southeast winds
around 10 mph early this morning will become east at 10 to 15
mph by 8 or 9 am MDT. Winds will transition to the north by early evening.

.TODAY...

CWR.................38 percent in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 0 percent in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................5 decreasing to 3 in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 1 in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds at 10 mph early this morning
becoming east at 10 to 15 mph late this morning,
and northeast this afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500-2300 ft AGL increasing to 5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 16 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 9 to 18 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (6600-55800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 5 (very low) to (moderate).
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the morning.

TIME (MDT)      5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM
Sky (%).........69  70  53  59  55  48  48  38  29  21  14  16
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............40  40  40  30  20  20  20  0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  40  30  30  30  30  0   0   0   0   10
LAL.............5   3   3   3   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............68  66  68  69  69  73  76  79  81  84  86  86
RH..............78  81  78  76  76  66  58  52  46  38  34  31
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..9   5   6   7   8   8   7   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.15  10  10  10  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 3.1 3.9 4.8 5.6
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.16  16  16  16  18  18  18  12  12  12  9   9
Haines index....5   5   4   3   2   2   2   2   3   3   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10007   7   11  15  22  27  31  23  31  39  40  56

.TONIGHT...

CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds up to 7 mph until early morning
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......3900-5600 ft AGL decreasing to 100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 9 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 10 mph early in the evening,
                    shifting to the southeast around 6 mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (19300-56100 knot-ft) decreasing
                    to poor (500 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.

TIME (MDT)      5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM
Sky (%).........17  15  11  8   1   1   2   2   5   7   10  17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............86  85  84  80  75  72  70  67  65  64  62  61
RH..............31  32  37  44  52  55  63  68  73  75  81  84
20 FT wind dir..N   N   NE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...5.6 5.6 3.9 2.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.NE  NW  NW  NW  NE  NE  NE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.9   10  10  10  2   2   2   6   6   6   6   6
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
SDspl kt-ft/100056  51  35  19  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.THURSDAY...

CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 increasing to 2 in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 12 mph. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......100-1500 ft AGL increasing to 8100-8900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 7 mph increasing to 15 to 18 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (700-33900 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (114000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........6 (high).
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      5 AM      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM
Sky (%).........24        12        18        31
Weather cov.....                              S CHC
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                              S CHC
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         20
LAL.............1         1         1         2
Temp............60        72        86        92
RH..............90        64        35        25
20 FT wind......S 4G5     S 8G10    S 11G15   S 12G15
Mix hgt (ft)....100       1500      5800      8500
Transport wind..S 6       S 7       S 18      S 15
Haines index....6         6         6         6
SDspl kt-ft/10001         23        78        128

$$
Forecaster...AYD
Requested by...Rod Skalsky
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1712918.2/BIS
.EMAIL rodskalsky@gmail.com



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