Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 291257
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHAOS CANYON SAR...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
657 AM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 0638 MDT ON AUGUST 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 200 PM LOCAL TIME.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM
THE UPPER 30S AT 7 AM INTO THE LOWER 50S BY NOON.

TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1500...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY(60-65%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1500...THEN CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MIN HUMIDITY........37%.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    EAST 6-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    1400.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3 UNTIL 1500...THEN 4.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%) UNTIL 1900...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(40-50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37.
MAX HUMIDITY........86%.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 4 UNTIL 2200...THEN 3 UNTIL
                    2300...THEN 2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 0900...THEN MOSTLY
                    SUNNY UNTIL 1000...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%)
                    UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%) UNTIL
                    1300...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MIN HUMIDITY........42%.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CHAOS CANYON SAR.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

08/29-06 57  7  1 41 57 ENE  5  5 2 1  NE 13  3951  NE  8 28249 P
08/29-07 53  7  1 42 55 ENE  5  5 2 1  NE 14  4654  NE 10 39659 P
08/29-08 50  6  1 44 53 ENE  5  5 2 1  NE 15  5356  NE 12 52996  F
08/29-09 46  7  1 47 47 ENE  6  6 2 1  NE 16  6059  NE 13 68262   G
08/29-10 47  8  2 50 44 ENE  6  6 3 1  NE 15  6947  NE 13 79055   G
08/29-11 48  9  2 53 39 ENE  9 15 3 2  NE 15  7836  NE 13 90048   G
08/29-12 50 15  3 54 40 ENE 10 16 4 3  NE 14  8725  NE 14101240    V
08/29-13 53 20  4 55 37 ENE 10 16 4 3  NE 15  8730  NE 14101600    V
08/29-14 57 24  5 55 37 ENE 12 18 3 3  NE 15  8735  NE 14101960    V
08/29-15 61 29  8 54 38 ENE 12 18 3 4  NE 15  8740  NE 14102321    V
08/29-16 61 27  7 54 38   E 12 18 3 4  NE 16  8236  NE 14101753    V
08/29-17 62 25  5 54 40   E 10 16 3 4  NE 17  7732  NE 15100534    V
08/29-18 62 23  5 53 43   E  9 15 3 3  NE 18  7228  NE 16 98661   G
08/29-19 58 24  5 50 48   E  9 15 3 3  NE 18  6036  NE 15 79611   G
08/29-20 55 25  5 47 56   E  9 15 4 4 ENE 18  4843 ENE 15 61658   G
08/29-21 51 26  6 43 65   E  8 13 4 4 ENE 18  3651   E 14 44801  F
08/29-22 48 19  4 41 73   E  9 15 4 3 ENE 17  3385 ENE 14 39453 P
08/29-23 44 11  2 40 76   E  8 13 5 2  NE 17  3118 ENE 13 34432 P
08/30-00 41  4  1 39 79   E  8 13 5 1  NE 17  2852 ENE 12 29738 P
08/30-01 41  4  1 38 82   E  7  7 5 1  NE 16  2649 ENE 12 25959 P
08/30-02 40  4  1 38 79   E  6  6 5 1 ENE 15  2446 ENE 10 22434 P
08/30-03 40  5  1 37 82   E  6  6 5 1 ENE 14  2243 ENE 10 19165 P
08/30-04 40  6  1 37 79   E  5  5 4 1 ENE 14  2085 ENE  9 16687 P
08/30-05 40  7  1 37 79   E  5  5 4 1  NE 15  1927 ENE  8 14379 P
08/30-06 40  7  1 37 84   E  7  7 3 1  NE 15  1768 ENE  8 12243 P
08/30-07 36  7  1 38 86   E  7  7 3 1  NE 16  2324 ENE  9 17698 P
08/30-08 33  7  1 43 73   E  7  7 4 1 ENE 16  2879 ENE  9 23922 P
08/30-09 29  7  1 46 65   E  7  7 4 1 ENE 17  3435 ENE 10 31272 P
08/30-10 39  7  1 50 56   E  7  7 4 1 ENE 16  4481 ENE 10 41464  F
08/30-11 50  7  1 53 49   E  8  8 4 1 ENE 15  5528 ENE 10 51964  F
08/30-12 60 29  8 55 45   E  8 13 4 4 ENE 14  6574 ENE 12 62774   G
08/30-13 57 29  8 57 42   E  8 14 3 4 ENE 12  7044 ENE 10 65110   G
08/30-14 55 29  8 57 42   E  9 15 3 4 ENE 10  7513 ENE 10 67159   G
08/30-15 52 29  8 57 42   E  9 15 2 4 ENE  8  7983 ENE 10 68923   G
08/30-16 50 29  8 57 42   E  9 14 2 4 ENE  9  7353 ENE 10 66614   G
08/30-17 45 29  8 56 44   E  8 14 3 4  NE 12  6723 ENE 10 63767   G
08/30-18 42 28  8 55 47   E  8 13 3 4  NE 13  6093 ENE 12 60385   G
08/30-19 42 28  8 52 53   E  8 13 3 4  NE 13  5088 ENE 12 49151  F
08/30-20 42 28  8 50 58 ESE  8 13 3 4 ENE 13  4084 ENE 10 38422 P
08/30-21 42 28  8 47 65 ESE  8 13 3 4 ENE 13  3079 ENE 10 28198 P
08/30-22 42 28  8 46 69 ESE  8 13 4 4  NE 12  2763 ENE  9 23077 P
08/30-23 42 28  8 45 72 ESE  8 13 4 4  NE 10  2447 ENE  9 18464 P
08/31-00 26  1  0 44 73 ESE  8 13 5 1  NE  9  2130   E  8 14362 P
08/31-01 26  1  0 43 72 ESE  7  7 5 1 NNE  9  1840 ENE  6  9992 P
08/31-02 26  1  0 43 68   E  7  7 5 1 NNE 10  1551  NE  5  6383 P
08/31-03 26  1  0 42 67   E  6  6 5 1   N 12  1261 NNE  3  3535 P
08/31-04 26  1  0 40 72 ESE  6  6 5 1   N 12  1060 NNE  2  2633 P
08/31-05 26  1  0 39 75  SE  6  6 5 1   N 13   860 NNE  2  1860 P
08/31-06 26  2  0 39 76 SSE  6  6 5 1   N 13   659 NNE  2  1215 P
08/31-07 26  2  0 41 71 SSE  6  6 5 1   N 13  1381 NNE  3  4238 P
08/31-08 26  2  0 45 62  SE  6  6 5 1   N 13  2103   N  5  9029 P
08/31-09 26  2  0 49 54  SE  6  6 5 1   N 14  2824   N  7 15590 P
08/31-10 26  2  0 53 47  SE  7  7 5 1   N 13  3876   N  7 22957 P
08/31-11 26  2  0 56 43  SE  7  7 5 1   N 13  4928   N  7 31170 P
08/31-12 49 28  8 58 40 SSE  8 13 5 4   N 12  5980   N  8 40229  F
08/31-13 49 28  8 59 38  SE  9 14 4 4 NNW 12  6638   N  7 39470 P
08/31-14 49 28  8 59 38  SE  9 15 4 4 NNW 10  7295 NNW  6 37684 P
08/31-15 49 28  8 59 37 ESE  9 15 3 4  NW 10  7953 NNW  5 34871 P
08/31-16 49 28  8 58 39 ESE  9 14 3 4  NW  9  7266 NNW  5 27054 P
08/31-17 49 28  8 58 41 ESE  8 14 3 4  NW  8  6579 NNW  3 20146 P
08/31-18 44 11  2 56 45 ESE  8 13 3 2  NW  7  5892 NNW  2 14147 P
08/31-19 44 11  2 54 50  SE  8 13 3 2  NW  7  4723 NNW  3 14940 P
08/31-20 44 11  2 50 60  SE  8 13 4 2 NNW  6  3554  NW  5 13952 P
08/31-21 44 11  2 48 66 SSE  8 13 4 2 NNW  6  2386  NW  6 11183 P
08/31-22 44 11  2 45 74 SSE  8  8 4 2 NNW  6  2024 WNW  6 10452 P
08/31-23 44 11  2 44 77   S  7  7 5 2  NW  6  1663   W  7  9377 P
09/01-00 22  2  0 43 79   S  7  7 5 1  NW  6  1302 WSW  7  7959 P
09/01-01 22  2  0 43 77 SSW  7  7 5 1  NW  7  1600   W  8 11403 P
09/01-02 22  2  0 42 76   W  8  8 4 1  NW  8  1898   W  9 15451 P
09/01-03 22  2  0 41 76   W  8 13 4 1  NW  9  2197 WNW 10 20104 P
09/01-04 22  2  0 41 73   W  8 14 4 1  NW 10  2238 WNW 10 21194 P
09/01-05 22  2  0 40 74   W  9 14 4 1  NW 10  2280 WNW 12 22310 P
09/01-06 24  7  1 41 70   W  9 15 4 1  NW 12  2321 WNW 12 23452 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...SCHLATTER
REQUESTED BY...RANGER BIDDLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20160829.CHAOS.01/BOU


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