Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 211154
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR JUNCTION BUTTE RX...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
554 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 MDT ON APRIL 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE COLORADO TODAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS BENEATH A MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE BASE INVERSION
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED
WITH DISSIPATION OF THIS INVERSION BETWEEN 1000 AND 1100.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN FORMING SOON AFTER THIS OVER THE
SURROUNDING HIGH TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THESE CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE
BURN AREA FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON. AIR BENEATH THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY FOR RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND AT THE
SITE...BUT GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY. NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. TONIGHT..MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INVERSIONS WILL FORM AGAIN NOT LONG AFTER SUNSET WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE/
DOWNVALLEY BREEZES OVERNIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-35%) UNTIL 1500...THEN MOSTLY
                    SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........26%.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN
                    WEST 6-12 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2600 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 9900-10900 FT AGL
                    AFTER 1200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN WEST.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. VERY GOOD AFTER 1200.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 31.
MAX HUMIDITY........79%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10600 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 1100-1800 FT AGL AFTER
                    2100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN LIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........28%.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    SOUTHWEST 10-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1300.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 9600-10600 FT AGL AFTER
                    1200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10-20 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    EXCELLENT.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR JUNCTION BUTTE RX.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST  SC  PP  WR  AT  RH  20-FT  G  H  L  10KFT  MIXG  TRANS  VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT   %   %   %   F   %   WIND  S  I  A   WIND   HGT   WIND   RATE RATNG
                                MPH  T     L    MPH   AGL    MPH  KT-FT

04/21-05  33   2   0  33  81   S  2  2  3  1   W 10  1181  SE  3   3009 P
04/21-06  34   0   0  33  82   S  2  2  3  1 WSW 12  1191  SE  3   2986 P
04/21-07  33   0   0  36  78   S  2  2  3  1 WSW 13  1753 SSE  3   4627 P
04/21-08  33   0   0  40  73 SSE  2  2  3  1   W 13  2315   S  3   6268 P
04/21-09  33   2   0  45  65 SSE  2  2  3  1   W 13  2877 SSW  3   7909 P
04/21-10  32   2   0  49  56   S  3  3  3  1   W 14  5059 SSW  6  38714 P
04/21-11  32   2   0  53  47  SW  5  5  2  1   W 15  7242  SW  9  69519   G
04/21-12  32   1   0  56  40 WSW  6  6  2  1   W 16  9424 WSW 13 100324    V
04/21-13  31   1   0  59  34 WSW  7  7  2  1   W 18  9986 WSW 13 110158    V
04/21-14  30   0   0  61  30 WSW  8 14  3  1   W 21 10549 WSW 13 119992    V
04/21-15  29   0   0  62  27   W  9 15  3  1   W 23 11111   W 14 129827    V
04/21-16  28   0   0  62  26 WSW  9 14  3  1   W 25 10939   W 14 126089    V
04/21-17  27   0   0  61  27 WSW  8 13  3  1   W 26 10767 WSW 13 122352    V
04/21-18  26   0   0  58  30 WSW  7  7  3  1   W 29 10595 WSW 13 118615    V
04/21-19  26   0   0  54  37  SW  6  6  3  1   W 29  7668 WSW 12  82848   G
04/21-20  26   0   0  50  46 SSW  5  5  3  1   W 28  4742 SSW  9  47081  F
04/21-21  27   0   0  46  56   S  3  3  3  1 WNW 28  1815 SSW  7  11314 P
04/21-22  27   0   0  43  60   S  3  3  3  1   W 29  1605   S  7   9175 P
04/21-23  27   0   0  40  63   S  3  3  3  1   W 29  1394 SSE  6   7035 P
04/22-00  27   0   0  38  64   S  3  3  3  1   W 30  1184  SE  5   4895 P
04/22-01  29   0   0  37  66 SSE  3  3  3  1   W 32  1165  SE  5   4383 P
04/22-02  32   0   0  36  69 SSE  2  2  3  1   W 33  1146  SE  3   3871 P
04/22-03  32   0   0  35  72 SSE  2  2  3  1   W 36  1127  SE  3   3359 P
04/22-04  35   0   0  32  78 SSE  2  2  3  1   W 38  1146  SE  3   3493 P
04/22-05  40   0   0  31  79 SSE  3  3  3  1   W 39  1165  SE  3   3627 P
04/22-06  43   2   0  32  75   S  5  5  3  1   W 41  1183 SSE  3   3762 P
04/22-07  43   2   0  35  70   S  6  6  3  1   W 41  1200 SSE  5   4441 P
04/22-08  43   2   0  41  61 SSW  6  6  3  1 WSW 41  1216   S  5   5120 P
04/22-09  43   2   0  47  54 SSW  7  7  3  1 WSW 41  1233   S  6   5800 P
04/22-10  43   2   0  52  45  SW  8 13  3  1 WSW 43  4492 SSW 14  97498   G
04/22-11  43   2   0  57  38  SW  9 15  3  1 WSW 43  7752  SW 22 189195     E
04/22-12  69   2   0  61  32  SW 12 18  3  1 WSW 44 11011  SW 30 280893     E
04/22-13  69  10   2  63  30  SW 14 23  3  2  SW 46 10997  SW 30 285225     E
04/22-14  69  10   2  64  28  SW 17 26  3  2  SW 47 10982  SW 30 289556     E
04/22-15  69  10   2  64  28  SW 18 30  3  2  SW 49 10968  SW 31 293888     E
04/22-16  69  10   2  63  28  SW 17 29  3  2  SW 53 10064  SW 30 262336     E
04/22-17  69  10   2  61  30  SW 16 25  3  2  SW 56  9159  SW 29 230785     E
04/22-18  63  10   2  59  33  SW 14 22  3  2  SW 59  8255  SW 28 199233     E
04/22-19  63  10   2  55  41  SW 13 20  3  2  SW 58  6145 SSW 22 138945    V
04/22-20  63   6   1  51  50 SSW 10 17  3  1  SW 55  4034 SSW 16  78657   G
04/22-21  63   6   1  48  58 SSW  9 15  3  1  SW 54  1924   S 12  18368 P
04/22-22  63   6   1  45  63 SSW  8 13  3  1  SW 61  1723   S  9  14970 P
04/22-23  63   6   1  43  63 SSW  7  7  3  1  SW 68  1522 SSW  8  11571 P
04/23-00  49  20   4  42  62 SSW  7  7  3  1  SW 75  1322 SSW  7   8172 P
04/23-01  49  20   4  40  67 SSW  7  7  3  1  SW 76  1322 SSW  8   9086 P
04/23-02  49  20   4  39  70 SSW  7  7  3  1  SW 78  1322 SSW  9  10000 P
04/23-03  49  20   4  37  76 SSW  8 13  3  1  SW 79  1323  SW  9  10914 P
04/23-04  49  20   4  36  75 SSW  9 14  3  1  SW 78  1305  SW  9  10912 P
04/23-05  49  20   4  35  73  SW  9 15  2  1  SW 77  1286  SW  9  10911 P
04/23-06  58  10   2  35  69  SW 10 16  2  1  SW 75  1268  SW 10  10909 P
04/23-07  58  10   2  37  64  SW 12 17  2  1  SW 73  3111  SW 18  75167   G
04/23-08  58  10   2  40  57  SW 12 20  2  1  SW 70  4953 WSW 26 139424    V
04/23-09  58  10   2  43  51  SW 13 21  2  1  SW 68  6796 WSW 35 203682     E
04/23-10  58  10   2  45  45 WSW 14 22  2  1 WSW 63  7559 WSW 33 220232     E
04/23-11  58  10   2  46  41 WSW 14 23  2  1 WSW 59  8321 WSW 33 236782     E
04/23-12  72  10   2  47  37 WSW 15 24  2  2 WSW 54  9083 WSW 32 253332     E
04/23-13  72  10   2  47  36 WSW 15 24  2  2 WSW 53  9468 WSW 31 259873     E
04/23-14  72  10   2  48  33   W 15 24  2  2 WSW 53  9852 WSW 31 266414     E
04/23-15  72  10   2  48  33   W 15 24  2  2 WSW 52 10237 WSW 31 272955     E
04/23-16  72  10   2  47  33   W 15 24  2  2 WSW 51  9989   W 30 263362     E
04/23-17  72  10   2  46  34   W 15 23  2  2   W 51  9741   W 30 253768     E
04/23-18  70   7   1  45  35   W 14 22  2  1   W 49  9493   W 30 244175     E
04/23-19  70   7   1  43  37   W 13 21  2  1   W 49  8300   W 30 213841     E
04/23-20  70   7   1  41  40   W 12 18  2  1   W 49  7106   W 30 183506     E
04/23-21  70   7   1  38  44   W 10 16  2  1 WNW 49  5913   W 30 153172     E
04/23-22  70   7   1  36  47   W  9 14  2  1 WNW 52  5216   W 28 127513    V
04/23-23  70   7   1  33  52   W  8 13  2  1 WNW 54  4518   W 25 101853    V
04/24-00  65   5   1  32  53   W  7  7  2  1 WNW 56  3821 WNW 23  76194   G
04/24-01  65   5   1  31  55   W  7  7  2  1 WNW 58  3544   W 21  64260   G
04/24-02  65   5   1  30  56   W  7  7  2  1 WNW 59  3267   W 18  52326  F
04/24-03  65   5   1  28  60   W  8 13  2  1 WNW 61  2990   W 16  40391  F
04/24-04  65   5   1  26  65   W  8 14  2  1 WNW 60  2438   W 13  29622 P
04/24-05  65   5   1  24  69 WSW  9 14  2  1 WNW 60  1886 WSW 10  18852 P
04/24-06  48   5   1  24  68 WSW  9 15  2  1 WNW 59  1333 WSW  7   8082 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
10KFT WIND  - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BAKER
REQUESTED BY...KEVIN THOMPSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140421.JUNCT.01/BOU



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