Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 192258
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR SGL 176...PA GAME COMMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
658 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE THE REGION SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. DURING THE DAYS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW
AND GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT. THE WINDS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY WEAK. WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WE WILL
MONITOR WINDS CLOSELY.

OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
AINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15 TO 0.30 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED.
THERE COULD BE GUSTY WINDS AFTER THE FRONT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34.
MAX HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4900 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200-400 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
SKY (%).............35        38        38        38
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................61        53        46        41
RH..................25        31        40        48
20 FT WIND..........E 9G10    NE 7G10   NE 6G10   NE 3G5
MIX HGT (FT)........4900      1800      200       200
TRANSPORT WIND......NE 13     NE 14     NE 10     NE 6
LAL.................1         1         1         1
HAINES INDEX........5         5         5         4

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO
                    8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2600-3900 FT
                    AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).............38        20        20        23
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................35        44        54        61
RH..................66        52        35        27
20 FT WIND..........NE 1      E 2G5     SE 6G10   SE 8G10
MIX HGT (FT)........400       1800      3600      3900
TRANSPORT WIND......NE 6      SE 9      SE 10     SE 9
LAL.................1         1         1         1
HAINES INDEX........4         4         4         5

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-3500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200-1000 FT
                    AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
SKY (%).............23        26        26        26
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................60        50        46        42
RH..................27        41        58        72
20 FT WIND..........S 7G10    S 5       S 5       S 3G5
MIX HGT (FT)........3500      1600      300       300
TRANSPORT WIND......S 13      S 14      S 10      S 6
LAL.................1         1         1         1
HAINES INDEX........5         5         4         4

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH
                    AROUND 5 MPH LATE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2500-4200 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............26  26  31  31  31  31  31  31  31  31  31  31
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................37  36  42  47  51  56  59  61  64  66  69  66
RH..................94  100 78  68  59  51  46  44  41  38  35  40
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   7   8   7   6   5   6   7   8   9   10  12
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP
REQUESTED BY...PAT MCELHENNY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140421.SGL17.01/CTP



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