Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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953
FNUS71 KCTP 251443
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Dead Woman's Hollow...DCNR
National Weather Service State College PA
1043 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on September 25.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...

Unseasonable late-September heat will continue in central PA
through mid week. It will remain mostly dry as well with just an
isolated shower possible in spots on Wednesday afternoon. A
pattern change will bring cooler, more seasonable fall-like
weather back to the area for second half of the week and into the
upcoming weekend. There will be another limited opportunity for
spotty light rain showers on Friday.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 65.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph early in the evening,
                    becoming light and variable.
Mixing height.......1000-3000 ft AGL, decreasing to 0-200 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....East 2 to 5 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........23  24  25  26  30  34  37  41  43  44  47  50
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............81  79  77  75  74  72  71  70  69  68  67  66
RH..............60  64  71  74  76  81  81  84  87  87  90  93
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.E   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  E   NE
Transp wind spd.5   5   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   3   3   2
Haines index....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming east 5 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 2 to 6 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........53  56  58  56  54  52  50  47  46  44  39  35
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............66  66  66  68  70  72  74  76  77  78  78  79
RH..............93  93  90  87  81  76  74  69  67  64  64  62
20 FT wind dir..E   E   NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   NE  E   E   E
Transp wind spd.2   2   3   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   5   5
Haines index....4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 64.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph early in the evening,
                    becoming light and variable.
Mixing height.......200-1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 0 to 5 mph, becoming north around 1 mph
                    late.
Haines Index........3...or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........30  25  23  24  27  30  32  35  36  36  35  35
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............77  74  72  71  69  68  68  67  66  65  65  65
RH..............67  74  79  81  87  87  87  90  93  97  97  97
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..4   4   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   SE  E   E   NE  E   E   SE  E   N   N
Transp wind spd.5   3   3   2   1   0   0   1   1   1   1   1
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Isolated showers
                    early in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......500-2000 ft AGL, increasing to 2500-3000 ft AGL
                    late.
Transport winds.....Northwest 1 to 6 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........34  34  33  33  33  33  33  33  32  32  32  32
Weather cov.....                                ISO ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............65  65  65  70  72  73  75  76  78  79  80  78
RH..............97  93  93  81  79  79  74  71  67  64  60  64
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.2
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.1   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   5   5   6
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/Steinbugl
Requested by...Phil Bietsch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1716205.0/CTP
.EMAIL pbietsch@pa.gov



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