Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FNUS74 KEWX 121404
FWSEWX

Spot Forecast for AFD Brush Truck Trainning #2...Austin Fire Department
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
804 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CST on February 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Low fire weather concerns today as eye-level north winds will remain
light near 10 mph or less while transport and 20ft wind speeds are a
touch higher in the 10-13mph range. Relative humidity values will also
remain elevated through the burn time as minimum values during the
afternoon will only fall to near 50 percent. Skies should be mostly clear
through the burn time this afternoon but additional clouds will building
by early evening and reduce mixing levels quickly. Low clouds and fog
are expected overnight into Tuesday morning.

Winds will shift from the north to the northeast through the afternoon.
Energy release component values are also slightly below normal given
the recent colder temperatures and scattered rain showers.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds around 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 8 mph.
Mixing height.......1600-2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 10 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........53  43  34  24  29  33
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............42  45  48  51  51  49
RH..............62  58  56  52  54  57
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Eye lvl wnd spd.6   6   6   6   6   5
Eye lvl wnd gst.8   8   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.12  12  12  12  12  10
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds 5 to 8 mph until early morning
                    becoming light, then becoming northeast around
                    5 mph early in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 8 mph until early morning
                    becoming light, then becoming northeast around
                    5 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......800-1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........37  42  47  52  62  71  81  83  86  88  88  89
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............48  46  45  43  42  42  41  41  41  41  41  41
RH..............61  65  72  75  78  84  85  85  89  88  89  92
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..7   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   4   4   4   5
20 FT wind gust.
Eye lvl wnd dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Eye lvl wnd spd.5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.    5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.10  9   8   7   6   6   5   5   5   6   6   7
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
CWR.................8 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........73 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds 5 to 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......800-1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 7 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........89  92  95  98  95  93  90  89  89  88  91  95
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............41  42  43  45  46  48  50  52  53  55  55  54
RH..............92  93  89  87  86  80  78  75  73  73  74  81
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   7   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.
Eye lvl wnd dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.                            5               5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

$$
Forecaster...Allen
Requested by...S. Gibbon
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1801811.0/EWX
.EMAIL steven.gibbon@austintexas.gov


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