Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FNUS75 KGJT 162155
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR FERRIS EAST...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1525 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE BURN SITE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE MIXING HEIGHTS AND
SMOKE DISPERSAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AND
ALOFT...WITH DISPERSAL AT LEAST FAIR THROUGH NOON THEN LOW END GOOD
BY MAX HEATING TIME. LIKE TODAY BUILDUPS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BURN SO HAVE ISOLATED IN THE FORECAST. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
A THREAT...BUT ALSO STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. IF A STORM DEVELOPS
NEARBY IT MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST TERRAIN WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 75 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING UPSLOPE
                    BY 1100. WINDS AFTER 1400...SOUTHWEST TO WEST
                    AT 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR BY 1100 THEN GOOD AFTER 1300.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 AFTER 1400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7800 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH THROUGH 1100 THEN WEST AT
                    12 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...DAVE GRETTENBERG
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140916.FERRI.01/GJT


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