Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS72 KILM 171537
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for COMPASS POINTE FIRE...USFS
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
1137 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1000 EDT on May 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will be anchored off the Carolina Coast through
Saturday. A backdoor cold front will approach from the north
during the weekend with a slight chance for showers. Above normal
temperatures will persist through the weekend. The risk for showers
and thunderstorms will increase early next week ahead of another
cold front approaching from the west.

Superfog development is possible in the vicinity of the fire tonight
after midnight if smoldering is occurring.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight...Moderate.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming southwest 5
                    to 8 mph with gusts up to 20 mph early in the
                    morning.
Max Mixing Hgt......5000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 13 mph, increasing to around 15
                    mph late.
Max Vent Rate.......75785 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........5.
Max ADI.............63.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   5   7   9   11  8   5   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............81  84  87  89  91  91  89  86
RH..............58  52  46  42  40  40  42  47
CHC Pcpn (%)....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  15  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 3.1 4.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9
Trans Wnd Dir...SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Trans Wnd Spd...8   9   10  10  10  13  15  15
Haines Index....4   3   3   3   5   5   5   4
VR MPH-FT*1000..17  29  40  50  52  62  72  76
Stability.......C   C   C   C   C   C   C   C
LVORI...........2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............21  31  37  42  44  52  60  63
Aparnt Tmp (F)..83  86  88  90  92  92  90  87
Sfc pres (in)...011 011 011 011 008 008 008 008

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 67.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph with gusts up to 20
                    mph until early morning, becoming light and
                    variable.
Min Mixing Hgt......200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 14 mph.
Min Vent Rate.......1035 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........10.
Min ADI.............2.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........1   1   0   3   5   8   9   17  25  33  37  40
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............83  80  76  74  72  71  71  71  71  69  68  67
RH..............53  61  70  77  83  87  88  88  87  91  95  100
CHC Pcpn (%)....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..8   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   4   4
20 FT wind gust.20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  10      5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 2.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Trans Wnd Dir...SW  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Trans Wnd Spd...14  10  8   8   7   7   7   7   7   6   5   5
Haines Index....4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VR MPH-FT*1000..48  23  6   5   4   3   3   2   2   1   1   1
Stability.......C   E   E   E   E   F   F   F   F   F   F   F
LVORI...........1   3   3   4   4   6   6   6   6   6   8   10
ADI.............48  7   6   5   5   3   3   3   3   3   2   2
Aparnt Tmp (F)..85  82  76  74  72  71  71  71  71  69  68  67
Sfc pres (in)...008 008 010 010 010 010 010 010 011 011 011 011

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming south 5 to 8
                    mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the late morning
                    and afternoon.
Max Mixing Hgt......4700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 12 mph, increasing to around 15 mph
                    late.
Max Vent Rate.......57959 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........7.
Max ADI.............50.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........40     40     27     20     19     14
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............69     72     80     86     87     87
RH..............94     86     65     51     46     45
CHC Pcpn (%)....0      0      10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
20 ft wind......SW 4   SW 3   SW 5   SW 6   S 6    S 7
20 ft wind gust.5      5      10     10     15     20
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    2000   3400   4700   4600
Transport wind..SW 3   SW 3   SW 7   SW 9   SW 9   S 12
Haines Index....5      5      5      5      5      5
VR MPH-FT*1000..1      1      14     32     44     55
Stability.......F      B      C      C      C      C
LVORI...........7      5      2      1      1      1
ADI.............2      4      18     32     38     48
Aparnt Tmp (F)..69     72     82     88     88     88
Sfc pres (in)...30.11  30.15  30.15  30.15  30.09  30.09

$$
Forecaster...Weiss
Requested by...SCOTT SHEPPARD
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1709633.0/ILM
.EMAIL briansheppard@fs.fed.us



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