Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FNUS76 KLOX 180231
FWSLOX

Spot Forecast for CREEK...USFS
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
631 PM PST Sun Dec 17 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1800 PST on December 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is subsiding
over the area this evening, with gusts up to 30 mph over the ridges
surrounding the Creek burn area. Local gusts to 35 mph will be
possible through late in the evening. There is a 30% chance that the
gusty winds will persist through late tonight into Monday morning.
However, at this time the offshore winds winds are expected to
diminish through Monday morning, with a weak onshore trend
developing in the afternoon. By Monday evening, light and variable
winds are likely, shifting to weakly onshore by Tuesday afternoon.

Humidity recoveries will be poor to fair tonight, peaking near 28%,
and will improve very slightly Monday night. Afternoon minimum
humidities will remain in the teens to low 20`s but will improve
through the period due to the onshore flow.

Another moderate to potentially strong northerly wind event is
expected Wednesday evening through Thursday. These winds could gust
as high as 50 mph, with locally stronger gusts possible, late
Wednesday night into early Thursday.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....50-52.
Max humidity........23-28 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds 5 to 8 mph with gusts to
                    10 mph decreasing to 4 to 6 mph with gusts
                    to 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast winds 8 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    20 mph...decreasing to 6 to 12 mph with
                    gusts to 15 mph.
 Ridgetop...........Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to
                    30 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph with gusts
                    to 25 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL decreasing to 1200 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast 15 mph increasing to 25 mph.


.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....68-72.
Min humidity........14-16 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds 3 to 5 mph with gusts up to 8 mph
                    in the morning becoming south 3 to 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast winds 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
                    in the morning, becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the
                    afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........Northeast winds 8 to 15 mph with gusts up to 23
                    mph in the morning, becoming south 6 to 12 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL increasing to 5000 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 20 mph decreasing to 10 mph.


.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....51-53.
Max humidity........25- 30 percent.
Eye level winds.....Variable/downslope 1 to 3 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Variable 3 to 6 mph.
 Ridgetop...........Variable 3 to 8 mph becoming east 4 to 8 mph
                    after midnight.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL early in the evening decreasing to 700
                    ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 10 mph.


.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....66-68.
Min humidity........19-23 percent.
Eye level winds.....Variable 1 to 3 mph becoming southwest up to 3 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Variable winds 3 to 6 mph becoming southwest in the
                    afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........Variable 3 to 8 mph becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph with
                    local gusts to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL increasing to 3000 ft AGL in the morning.
Transport winds.....Variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the
                    afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...SMITH
Requested by...Creek IC(t)
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1720048.0/LOX
.EMAIL bmonterrosa@fs.fed.us



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