Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 231125
FWSLZK

SPOT FORECAST FOR SWEETWATER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0553 CDT ON JULY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

WINDS ARE GOING TO START OFF LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...
WITH LOCAL TERRAIN AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INITIALLY DRIVING
WIND DIRECTION. IF YOU HAVE A DECENT FIRE GOING...THE FIRE ITSELF
IS LIKELY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE WINDS MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE
WITH WINDS GENERALLY DRAWN TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE WILDFIRE. IF
THE FIRE IS NOT HOT ENOUGH TO DRIVE LOCAL WINDS YET... YOU MAY
START OFF WITH A LIGHT NORTH DRAINAGE WIND WITH THE LAT/LON GIVEN
BEING ON A RIDGE WITH THE VALLEY TO THE SOUTH.

WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY LATE THIS
MORNING...AGAIN NOT KNOWING THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE FIRE AND
ITS EFFECTS ON CURRENT LOCAL WINDS. WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 5 MPH...SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT AND CHAOTIC
WINDS ALL DAY WITH LOCAL TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND THE FIRE HAVING A
LARGER THAN NORMAL IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTION.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME EXTREMELY CHAOTIC IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE FIRE.
THERE IS LITTLE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR...SO STORMS WILL TEND TO
DEVELOP QUICKLY AND FALL APART QUICKLY. THIS COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE NEAR THE FIRE LINE AS THUNDERSTORM GENERATED
OUTFLOW/WINDS COULD QUICKLY CHANGE THE WIND DIRECTION AND GUST UP
TO 30-40 MPH...BRIEFLY DRIVING FIRE IN A DIRECTION AWAY FROM THE
STORM.

EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT DEVELOP...HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE FOR FIREFIGHTERS TODAY. MORNING HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AROUND SUNRISE...TO NEAR 100
DEGREES BY NOON. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108 TO 110 DEGREES
ARE EXPECTED. HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STRESS WILL LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR ANYONE WORKING THE FIRE TODAY.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS DO NOT HESITATE TO CALL OUR OFFICE AT
ANY TIME FOR A FORECAST UPDATE.

.TODAY...

TEMPERATURE.........74 AT REQUEST...MAX 97.
RH..................100 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MIN 45 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).BECOMING 8500 FT AGL.
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).BECOMING 9566 FT MSL.
STABILITY CLASS.....2.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTH AT 2 MPH AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
LVORI...............1 EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
TEMP............74  78  82  85  89  92  94  95  96  96  96  96
RH..............100 88  78  69  61  55  50  48  46  45  45  45
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   SE  SE  S   SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   5   6   5
20 FT WIND GUST.        5   5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   SE  SE  S   SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.1   1   3   5   5   5   5   5   6   8   9   8
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  10  20  20  20  20  20  30  30  30  30  30

.TONIGHT...

TEMPERATURE.........MIN 78.
RH..................MAX 81 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).BECOMING 6600 FT AGL.
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).BECOMING 7686 FT MSL.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............1.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
TEMP............95  93  90  87  85  84  83  82  82  81  80  80
RH..............47  51  57  64  70  70  72  74  76  77  79  80
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.6   6   5   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
CHC OF PCPN (%).30  30  20  20  20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10

.SUNDAY...

TEMPERATURE.........MAX 95.
RH..................MIN 50 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).BECOMING 6300 FT AGL.
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).BECOMING 7348 FT MSL.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LVORI...............1 EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
TEMP............80  80  82  85  88  90  92  93  94  94  94  93
RH..............81  80  75  69  64  59  55  52  51  50  50  52
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  E   E   SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5           5   5   5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  E   E   SE  SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.3   3   5   3   3   3   3   3   5   6   8   8
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  20  20  20  20  20  20  30  30  30  30  30

$$
FORECASTER...D CAVANAUGH
REQUESTED BY...USFS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160723.SWEET.01/LZK


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