Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 291044
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Howell Tract...USFWS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
544 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on March 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon and
especially overnight tonight as a strong storm system moves
through the state. Drier conditions will be seen by late Thu
afternoon as a cold front moves through the state.


.TODAY...

Temperature.........60 at ignition...Max 81.
RH..................90 percent at ignition...Min 51 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 14 mph increasing to south 18 to
                    24 mph in the afternoon.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds southeast at 10 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 7 to 13
                    mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Dispersion..........11 increasing to 25 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 41 early in the afternoon
                    increasing to 63 in the afternoon decreasing to
                    52.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 7 to 13 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4500 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4733 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............60  62  65  68  71  74  77  79  80  81  80
RH..............90  89  85  81  73  65  60  54  52  51  52
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  13  13  13  13  13  13
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  25  25  25  25  25  25
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.6   6   6   6   6   8   8   8   8   8   8
Eye lvl wnd gst.15  15  15  15  15  25  25  25  25  25  25
Transp wind dir.E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   SE  S
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   10  14  18  22  24  24  24  23
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20

.TONIGHT...

RH..................Max 96 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2100 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 2335 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
RH..............56  59  62  65  70  75  81  87  88  91  93  95
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7
Eye lvl wnd gst.15  15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20
Chc of pcpn (%).70  70  70  70  70  70  80  80  80  80  80  80

.THURSDAY...

RH..................Min 58 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 8 to 15 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 5000 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 5166 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
RH..............96  93  90  88  87  81  80  76  68  62  58  59
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.8   8   8   8   8   8   9   9   9   9   9   9
Eye lvl wnd gst.20  20  20  20  20  20  25  25  25  25  25  25
Chc of pcpn (%).80  80  80  80  80  80  50  50  50  50  50  50

$$
Forecaster...W Gilmore
Requested by...Matthew Johnson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705421.0/LZK
.EMAIL matthew_johnson@fws.gov


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