Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 261230
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Ramsey Block 2 (Sylamore RD)...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CST on February 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...

Moisture levels will be on a gradual increase today. Still, expect
dewpoints to mix out low enough to drop RH values to around or
slightly below 40 percent this afternoon as substantial moisture
return and increasing rain chances will not occur until the
evening hours. Do expect to see showers developing across western
Arkansas by around 7pm this evening, but do not expect to see any
rainfall near the burn site until closer to midnight most likely.
Expect rainfall will be mostly showers, but some thunder is not
out of the question. That said, thunderstorms occurring tonight
should be mostly elevated. This decreases the likelihood that any
strong thunderstorm winds will make it to the surface.

.TODAY...

Temperature.........28 at ignition...Max 53.
RH..................75 percent at ignition...Min 38 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 16 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds south at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 5 to 7 mph.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Dispersion..........19 increasing to 32 early in the morning, then
                    increasing to 39 late in the morning decreasing
                    to 30 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Eye level winds.....South winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 5400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 6325 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............28  29  34  39  43  47  50  52  53  53  53
RH..............75  75  64  52  47  42  39  38  38  38  39
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
Transp wind spd.12  14  16  16  16  15  14  13  12  13  14
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 41.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 16 mph shifting to the east 5 to
                    6 mph early in the morning.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely.
Dispersion..........10 early in the evening.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 1492 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Temp............51  49  47  46  45  45  44  43  43  42  42  42
RH..............44  50  56  60  65  68  73  79  79  86  86  86
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.                        5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.                        5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E
Transp wind spd.15  16  16  16  14  12  9   8   7   6   5   5
Chc of pcpn (%).70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70

.MONDAY...

Temperature.........Max 60.
RH..................Min 62 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 14 mph increasing to 16 to 17
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers.
Dispersion..........9 increasing to 19 early in the afternoon, then
                    increasing to 34 early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 22 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2900 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 3818 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............41  41  42  46  49  53  55  58  59  60  60  60
RH..............92  96  96  86  83  74  72  64  64  62  64  64
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5   6   7   8   10  14  16  17  16
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20

$$
Forecaster...C Dalton
Requested by...Brian Sullivan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702915.0/LZK
.EMAIL bksullivan@fs.fed.ur,bksullivan@fs.fed.usThanks



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