Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FNUS72 KMHX 141008
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Pettiford Creek...USFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
508 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EST on December 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
Low pressure off the Northeast coast today will push a dry cold
front through the area late today. Low pressure will pass near
the coast Friday. High pressure will build over the area this
weekend. A complex frontal system will affect the region early
next week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......Max 4000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 76360 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 2.
ADI.................Max 72.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.78 to 29.90 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............2   2   2   2   2   3   5   6   6   8   9   8
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............46  46  47  48  49  52  54  56  57  56  55  53
RH.................49  49  49  49  50  46  45  42  40  43  45  48
20 FT wind dir.....W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
20 FT wind spd.....9   9   9   8   8   8   8   8   7   6   5   4
20 FT wind gust....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15          5
Mix hgt (kft)......1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 2.1 3.0 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 2.4
Transp wind dir....W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
Transp wind spd....17  16  15  13  13  15  17  20  18  16  14  12
LVORI..............2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI................22  22  20  19  20  38  57  72  67  58  48  33
Haines index.......4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRate mph-ft/1000..18  17  16  15  16  31  53  76  70  59  48  29
Stability class....F   F   F   F   F   F   C   C   C   C   C   B

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......Min 300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 10 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 1494 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 8.
ADI.................Min 3.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.93 to 30.02 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)............7   6   7   10  12  14  17  19  22  28  31  36
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............49  46  44  42  41  40  39  39  38  37  36  35
RH.................58  65  68  73  73  76  79  79  82  85  89  97
20 FT wind dir.....N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd.....4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust....5   5   5                           5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)......1.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir....NW  N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd....10  9   9   10  10  10  10  9   8   8   7   6
LVORI..............3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   6   8
ADI................5   4   4   4   5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3
Haines index.......5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..14  2   2   2   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   1
Stability class....B   B   B   C   C   C   F   F   F   F   F   F

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds, becoming west 5 to 9 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......Max 3000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 5 mph, becoming southwest 5 mph
                    early in the afternoon, then increasing to west
                    15 to 20 mph late.
Vent Rate...........Max 54394 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 9.
ADI.................Max 44.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.90 to 30.02 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%)............47     54     62     70     71     69
Weather cov........
Weather type.......NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............35     39     47     54     57     55
RH.................100    92     76     64     55     61
20 ft wind.........NE 3   N 3    SW 5   SW 8   W 9    W 8
20 ft wind gust....5      5      10     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft).......300    300    300    1800   2700   3000
Transport wind.....NE 5   NE 5   E 6    S 1    SW 6   W 18
LVORI..............9      6      4      3      2      1
ADI................5      4      6      2      14     44
Haines index.......5      5      5      4      4      5
VRate mph-ft/1000..1      1      1      2      17     54
Stability class....F      F      E      C      C      C

$$
Forecaster...Elardo
Requested by...David Nelson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719972.0/MHX
.EMAIL Davidnelson@fs.fed.us



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