Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
000
FNUS72 KMHX 270947
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for C 2 Island Creek...USFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
547 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on March 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore bringing
predominantly south winds across the burn area today. A system
will approach the area tonight with scattered showers and
thunderstorms impacting the area Tuesday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Patchy fog early in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......Max 6300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 57844 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 7.
ADI.................Max 43.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.02 to 30.14 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............31  37  40  40  40  40  43  49  52  49  42  38
Weather cov........PTY PTY
Weather type.......FOG FOG
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............49  50  53  60  65  71  74  76  78  79  79  78
RH.................99  98  93  81  68  57  53  48  45  44  44  45
20 FT wind dir.....S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd.....2   2   2   3   4   6   6   6   6   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust....            5   5   10  10  10  10  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.2 2.2 3.2 4.2 5.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3
Transp wind dir....SE  SE  SE  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
Transp wind spd....2   2   2   5   7   9   9   8   7   7   8   9
LVORI..............7   6   6   4   3   1   1   1   2   1   1   1
ADI................1   2   2   11  25  38  39  36  25  35  38  43
Haines index.......4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate mph-ft/1000..1   1   1   6   15  29  39  42  42  43  50  58
Stability class....F   F   F   F   F   F   B   B   C   B   B   B

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy...then becoming mostly cloudy.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph in the
                    evening...becoming light...then becoming south
                    around 5 mph after midnight...becoming light.
Mixing height.......Min 300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 14 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 1150 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Min 2.
Haines index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.01 to 30.03 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)............39  39  39  39  38  38  43  53  59  60  64  65
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............75  71  67  65  64  63  62  61  61  60  59  59
RH.................50  57  68  73  75  78  81  84  84  87  93  93
20 FT wind dir.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd.....8   7   6   5   4   4   3   4   4   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust....15  10  10      5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)......4.8 3.3 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
Transp wind spd....12  13  14  14  12  10  9   8   7   6   6   5
LVORI..............1   2   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   6   6   6
ADI................46  9   6   6   5   5   4   5   5   3   2   2
Haines index.......3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate mph-ft/1000..55  42  26  18  9   3   2   2   2   1   1   1
Stability class....B   B   B   B   B   B   F   F   F   F   F   F

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms early in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......Max 6500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 12 mph...increasing to 12 to 14
                    mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 83260 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Max 48.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.92 to 30.03 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%)............67     74     73     75     79     71
Weather cov........       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type.......NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov...........       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Temp...............59     58     68     75     78     79
RH.................93     90     68     55     52     50
20 ft wind.........SW 4   SW 6   SW 6   SW 6   SW 7   S 9
20 ft wind gust....5                           10     15
Mix hgt (ft).......300    300    2100   3900   5800   6300
Transport wind.....SW 3   S 3    SW 9   SW 13  SW 14  SW 13
LVORI..............6      6      3      1      1      1
ADI................2      4      19     39     48     43
Haines index.......3      4      4      4      3      3
VRate mph-ft/1000..1      1      19     50     80     79
Stability class....F      E      E      C      C      C

$$
Forecaster...Kennedy
Requested by...David Nelson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705260.0/MHX
.EMAIL Davidnelson@fs.fed.us


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.