Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FNUS73 KPAH 300230
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR OZARK HILL PRAIRIE...USFS SHAWNEE NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
930 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 30.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

NOTE: THIS IS A PRELIMINARY PRESCRIBED BURN FORECAST. IF AN UPDATE
IS REQUIRED WITHIN ONE TO TWO HOURS PRIOR TO IGNITION TIME...PLEASE
CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DIRECTLY OR SUBMIT THE FORECAST
REQUEST AGAIN TO MAKE SURE THE APPROPRIATE BEAN RIDGE RAWS DATA ARE
INCORPORATED INTO THE PRESCRIBED BURN FORECAST.

WEATHERWISE...SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND IGNITION
TIME TO HELP EVAPORATE THE LIGHT RAINFALL THAT FELL SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO NOON.
THIS WILL DELAY THE REDUCTION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT
UNTIL AFTER NOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD REACH INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 3PM CDT ON MONDAY.

LOOKING FARTHER INTO THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARMER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE
HOLD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FIRDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........56 AT IGNITION...MAX 63.
RH..................45 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300-4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 6 TO
                    15 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........5   8   14  20  25  29  31  33  35  36  35  30
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............43  43  45  48  52  56  58  60  61  63  63  62
RH..............79  79  73  65  54  45  40  36  33  31  31  32
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW  NW  N   N   NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.                                    10  10
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 43.
RH..................MAX 82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-1000 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........23  17  14  14  15  17  19  22  23  24  25  27
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............61  60  56  53  51  50  48  47  46  45  44  43
RH..............35  37  43  50  54  56  63  65  68  70  73  76
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.    5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 70.
RH..................MIN 50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-3700 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 16 TO
                    22 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........28  30  32  35  38  40  41  42  41  39  37  34
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............43  44  47  52  56  59  63  65  67  69  69  70
RH..............79  79  76  69  64  62  58  58  54  51  51  51
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..3   5   6   8   9   10  10  10  10  10  9   8
20 FT WIND GUST.5       10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
FORECASTER...SMITH
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150330.OZARK.03/PAH



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