Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FNUS73 KPAH 221450
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Holly Springs South Restoration Unit...Missouri Dept of Conservation
National Weather Service Paducah KY
850 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on November 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Smoke dispersion will not be ideal over the next three days under
northwesterly flow aloft and general high pressure at the surface.
Precipitation is not expected, however. A dry cold frontal passage
is expected early Saturday, followed by another surface high over
the area. Early next week, increasing southwesterly deep flow is
expected ahead of a large frontal system developing in the Plains
states.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........32 at ignition...Max 43.
RH..................63 percent at ignition...Min 35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds north at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1800-3000
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 16 mph decreasing to around 6 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0
Temp............32     37     42     42     37
RH..............63     50     41     39     50
20 FT wind dir..N      N      N      N      N
20 FT wind spd..7      10     9      8      6
20 FT wind gust.10     15     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....1800   2100   2500   2900   3000
Transp wind dir.N      N      N      N      N
Transp wind spd.16     14     12     9      6
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 26.
RH..................Max 84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......1600-2800 ft AGL decreasing to 800-1200 ft AGL
                    after midnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 1 to 5 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 2 mph early in the morning.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............34     31     29     28     28     27
RH..............58     66     72     78     75     78
20 FT wind dir..NE     NE     NE     E      S      SW
20 FT wind spd..5      2      2      2      2      2
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (ft)....2200   2600   1900   800    1200   1100
Transp wind dir.N      NE     NE     N      N      NW
Transp wind spd.5      3      3      3      1      1
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4

$$
Forecaster...WFO PADUCAH
Requested by...Bruce Henry
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719084.0/PAH
.EMAIL Bruce.henry@mdc.mo.gov



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