Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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539
FNUS75 KRIW 170945
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for NE Fuels Pile Burn...NPS YNP
National Weather Service Riverton WY
345 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 MDT on October 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A cold front will move across the area this evening.
Sunny, mild and breezy conditions will prevail ahead of the front
this afternoon. Breezy to windy conditions will continue overnight
with the frontal passage along with good relative humidity
recovery.  Slightly cooler, breezy conditions with higher RH will
prevail on Wednesday.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

FORECASTER...Meunier

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....55-58.
Min humidity........19-22 percent.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 5-9 mph becoming southwest
                    10 to 15 mph with gusts 25 to 30 mph in
                    the early afternoon.
Ridge top winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph
                    in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.Zero percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......400-900 ft AGL in the morning, increasing to near
                    5500 AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 23 mph increasing to around 35 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor in the morning, increasing to excellent
                    in the afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min temperature.....26-29.
Max humidity........71-74 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph in the evening, decreasing to 5 to 10 mph
                    with gusts to 15 mph after midnight.
Ridge top winds.....Southwest 20 to 25 mph decreasing to around 15
                    mph after midnight.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.Zero percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Near 1500 ft AGL until 1900, then decreasing to 500 FT AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....53-56.
Min humidity........27-30 percent.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 5-9 mph, becoming southwest
                    10 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Ridge top winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.Zero percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......500-1200 ft AGL in the morning,
                    increasing to near 5000 ft agl in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 25 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair in the morning,
                    increasing to very good in the afternoon.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Winds generally less than
10 mph.

.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Highs in the upper 50s. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph
with gusts 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy with chance of rain and snow. Lows in the upper
20s. Highs around 50. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph
with gusts 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

.SATURDAY...
Colder. Mostly cloudy with chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s.
Highs in the upper 30s. Winds generally less than 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Meunier
Requested by...Bill Mayer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717324.0/RIW
.EMAIL bill_mayer@nps.gov



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