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Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC
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AGAK78 PACR 192259 AAA
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THE YUKON RIVER BREAKUP FRONT WAS 15 MILES DOWNSTREAM OF CIRCLE
AT NOON SUNDAY. THE VILLAGE OF CIRCLE FLOODED AS THE SURGE OF WATER
PASSED BY.

SEE THE BREAKUP MAP AND THE BREAKUP SUMMARY FOR CURRENT BREAKUP
ACTIVITY... INCLUDING FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-BREAKUP RELATED FLOODING IS CURRENTLY LOW
FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER THE GULF HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST OF
THE STATE. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
BRING DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO MOST OF THE STATE INCLUDING THE
PANHANDLE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A MOIST FLOW
UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE KEEPING RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

INTERIOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE BEEN NEAR FREEZING THIS
WEEKEND ARE FORECASTED TO RISE TO NEAR 60 BY THURSDAY AND NEAR 70 BY
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD GREATLY INCREASE BREAKUP PROCESSES THROUGHOUT
THE MAINLAND.

SELECTION OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4AM:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS    24 HR
======== ====                 == ==

LLKA2    LONG LAKE SNOTEL     PC RM :   1.90
ALEA2    ALSEK RIVER AT DRY B PP RG :   1.43
ALKA2    ALSEK RIVER NR YAKUT PC RG :   1.09
PAYA     YAKUTAT              PP RZ :   0.75
PAJK     JUNEAU WFO           PP RZ :   0.74
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PC RG :   0.71
PAKT     KETCHIKAN            PP RZ :   0.65
MCAA2    MONTANA CREEK AT BAC PC RG :   0.62
GDWA2    GIRDWOOD FIRE STATIO PC RG :   0.55
GLNA2    GLENNALLEN KCAM      PP RZ :   0.50


...FORECAST PRECIPITATION...

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITAION (.1 TO .5 INCHES) SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD
BE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA.

...QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS (QPF) GRIDS...

DAY 1-3 QPF GRIDS WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS... WITH
SOME MANUAL EDITS. DAY 5-7 QPF GRIDS WERE BASED ON THE GFS... WITH
OCCASIONAL MANUAL EDITS.

...LONG RANGE...
THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN COAST AND INCREASED CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE THE MAJORITY OF THE MAINLAND AND
THE PANHANDLE.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE MAINLAND...
AND
INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

....................................................................

THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED EVERY DAY UNTIL FREEZE UP
BEGINS IN THE FALL.  A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION
IS AVAILABLE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

JEP
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
