Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
000
AGUS71 KTAR 231709
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1207 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
PERIODIC LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. BASIN AVERAGE
AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 0.25 INCH OR LESS...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCH WERE NOTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. TEMPERATURES WERE OFF TO A
MILDER START THIS SUNDAY MORNING COURTESY OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
:
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HEAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON
TUESDAY. MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGHS ON
MONDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO THE 60S
SOUTH. IN ADDITION GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AND THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION. SOME
OF THE RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY.
:
A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING WIDESPREAD MIXED RAIN AND SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
:
48 HOUR BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGE FROM 0.4 TO 0.9 INCH. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
NERFC FORECAST POINTS ARE NOW GENERALLY IN RECESSION OR HOLDING AT
STEADY LEVELS.  HOWEVER, WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE
UPCOMING RAINS ARE EXPECTED CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER RISES BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IN
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK, WHERE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FELL EARLIER IN
THE WEEK, THE RAIN AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL HASTEN THE SNOW
MELT PROCESS AND RIVER RISES OF 6 TO 7 FEET ARE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS FOR THE AREA IMMEDIATELY EAST OF BUFFALO, NY.
:
THE FORECAST FOR CREEKS IN THIS AREA, INCLUDING CAZENOVIA CREEK,
BUFFALO CREEK, ELLICOTT CREEK, AND CAYUGA CREEK, IS FOR THEM TO
REACH THEIR MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  EACH
OF THESE LOCATIONS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CREST SHORTLY
AFTERWARD BETWEEN MINOR AND MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.  IN ADDITION,
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE AREAS HARDEST HIT
BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATER WATCH WEBPAGE...7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS ACROSS THE NERFC REGION ARE GENERALLY NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE-NOVEMBER.  EXCEPTIONS TO THIS TREND ARE IN THE
UPPER HUDSON RIVER BASIN AND IN THE PAWCATUCK RIVER BASIN IN
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND/CONNECTICUT, WHERE FLOWS ARE BELOW NORMAL TO
MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO SNOW MELTING IN FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE PERIOD BETWEEN NOVEMBER 24-25.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
THIS TEXT PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED EFFECTIVE DECEMBER 2 2014.
IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A PRODUCT AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/BRIEFINGS
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:         NEAL STRAUSS
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                  BILL SAUNDERS





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.