Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

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AGUS71 KTAR 281538
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1135 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z ( 10 AM EDT ) WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER CLOSED
LOW SWINGING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. AT THE SURFACE...AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 999 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR JULY IS CENTERED
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK STATE WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT...CAUSING
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SOUTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE WHITE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
:
ALSO ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW...SLOW MOVING RAINBANDS WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL.
:
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING IS
FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS OF BOTH
VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MAINE WHERE
AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 2.00 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH EMBEDDED HIGHER
POINT RAINFALLS. THE RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND WHERE LITTLE OR
NO ORGANIZED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
:
OVER THE PAST 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8 AM EDT THIS MONDAY
MORNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS CONCENTRATED WITH CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRED IN AND
AROUND ROCHESTER NEW YORK...FROM ALBANY NEW YORK EAST INTO THE
BERKSHIRES OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
VERMONT AND CLOSE TO PORTLAND MAINE. SEVERAL RAINFALL REPORTS IN
THESE AREAS EXCEEDED 2 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REPORT
RECEIVED AT THE NERFC THIS MORNING FOR THE PAST 24-HOUR PERIOD
CAME FROM WORTHINGTON IN THE BERKSHIRES OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ARE FORECAST FOR MANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FROM THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR WILL CAUSE SHARP RISES
ALONG SOME OF THE SMALLER, FASTER RESPONDING RIVERS.
NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT THE PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT
WOODSTOCK, NH, OTTER CREEK AT CENTER RUTLAND, VT, OATKA CREEK AT
GARBUTT, NY AND BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE, NY ARE ALL FORECAST TO
CREST AT OR ABOVE ACTION STAGE.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATERWATCH WEBPAGE, 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS ARE IN THE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR FOR MOST OF THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE BEING SEEN IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EXTREME NORTHERN MAINE WHERE
BELOW NORMAL FLOWS ARE BEING REPORTED.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ALISON MACNEIL




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