Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 150629
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
229 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT BACK TO THE W-NW MOVING BACK INLAND
THROUGH TODAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N92W TO 20N93W. ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD MOVING INLAND OVER SE TEXAS/NE MEXICO IN 24-36
HOURS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ARE N OF
27N W OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT...WITH MAINLY MODERATE SE WINDS AND
3-5 FT SEAS E OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS RIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N90W
TO ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W MOVING W AROUND 15-20
KT AND SLOWING DOWN. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH
THE TROUGH BY 24 HOURS WHILE APPROACHING MAINLAND MEXICO.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP IN THE NE GULF LATER TODAY INTO
TUE...GRADUALLY DRIFTING S-SW THROUGH WED...THEN W INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THU BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP S INTO THE NE
GULF LATE TUE...SLOWLY SINKING S THROUGH THU...THEN DISSIPATING BY
FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE WEEK...WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BASIN-WIDE TO
1-3 FT THROUGH THE WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS EXITED THE NW CARIBBEAN...NOW MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WATERS.
FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE IN THE WAKE OF THE
WAVE AXIS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATER TODAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE AREA.

RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA STILL SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG NE-E WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY
TO 8 FT...WITH NE 20-25 KT WINDS ALSO ACROSS THE APPROACHES TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA E OF 80W.

TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE BASIN-
WIDE LATER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SIGNIFICANTLY RELAXES. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BACK TO
LOCALLY FRESH NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WED THROUGH FRI. SEAS
WILL BE 1-3 FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND E CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE EDOUARD
ARE IMPACTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ARE UP TO 7 FT NEAR 19N55W.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT ACROSS THE WATERS TUE THROUGH FRI...
WHILE MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES JUST SW OF BERMUDA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 1-3 FT
SEAS ARE N OF 27N UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS S OF 27N W OF 65W...EXCEPT 1-3 FT
INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

A LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS POSITIONED NEAR 25N69W AND IS
DRIFTING W. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 22N TO 29N E OF
70W.

MEANWHILE HURRICANE EDOUARD IS APPROACHING 55W WITH ASSOCIATED
SWELLS UP TO 7-9 FT IMPACTING THE NE CORNER OF ZONE AMZ127. THESE
SWELLS WILL BREACH THE WATERS N OF 22N W OF 65W DURING THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING WED THROUGH FRI AS EDOUARD LIFTS
OUT TO THE N-NE WELL AWAY FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS. MEANWHILE...
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S TO 27N/28N WITH THE PASSAGE OF EDOUARD E OF
THE AREA...CONTINUING S TO ALONG 26N BY LATE WED AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE NW CORNER. THE FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE AS IT EXTENDS
FROM 31N76W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THU INTO FRI WITH WEAK LOW
PRES LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG IT NEAR 30N77W.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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