Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 100645
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
ATLC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A
1020 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N89W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL MEANDER THROUGH MON AND HELP ANCHOR PERSISTENT RIDGE
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
TO PREVAIL IN THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT NEAR YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST EACH EVENING THROUGH SUN.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER EAST TEXAS. DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN MUCH OF THE SW AND W CENTRAL GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES AND BROAD
LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN ZONES...WITH
NE-E WINDS TO NEAR GALE S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE TO NEAR GALE EACH NIGHT THIS WEEK NEAR COASTS
OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 13-14 FT
MAXIMUM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS WILL APPROACH
25 KT THIS EVENING.

WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND SEAS WILL BE
HIGH...IN THE 10-14 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 12
FT SUN NIGHT AND MON. BUOY 42058 AT 15N75W IS REPORTING SEAS OF
8-9 FT...CLOSE TO MWW GUIDANCE. SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL VARY LITTLE
EXCEPT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE NE SWELLS BUILD TO 7-9 FT AS
A TROPICAL WAVE QUICKLY ADVANCES WEST THROUGH THE SUB-REGION.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NEAR 30N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA CONTINUES
TO BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE CONTROLLING THE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE REGION. S TO SW FLOW N OF THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED REACH 10-15 KT AT NIGHT AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT DURING
THE DAY. FRESH EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...WITH LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING 20-25 KT PULSES
ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN APPROACHES TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
SEAS 3-4 FT N OF THE RIDGE AND 4-6 FT S OF THE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY EARLY...THEN LIFT N TO NEAR 31N THROUGH MON. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL WATERS TODAY
THEN OVER THE SW WATERS THU NIGHT TO REACH S FLORIDA FRI NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
    NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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