Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 281854
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
254 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES...EXTENDING FROM SHIFTING ATLC RIDGE NOW CENTERED NEAR
38N48W. THIS YIELDING MODERATE E TO SE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF BASIN
EXCEPT 15-20 KT THROUGH STRAITS OF FL. SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT
EXCEPT 2-3 FT NE PART. YUCATAN TROUGH HAS NEARLY DISSIPATED ALONG
95W WITH SEAS STILL 4-5 FT INVOF 42055. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH FRI THEN RETREAT EASTWARD SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A DECREASE IN OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GULF WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND EXTREME NW WATERS
FRI TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER THERE...SHIFTING
TO CENTRAL PORTIONS SAT. A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP EACH EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW
GULF EACH MORNING.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

BROAD TROUGH N OF THE AREA ACROSS W CENTRAL ATLC HAS WEAKENED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN..AND TYPICAL JET FROM A-B-C`S
TO COLOMBIA NOW DOWN TO AROUND 20 KT AND 8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH
ENE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS NW PORTIONS FROM LEE OF CUBA TO YUCATAN
WHILE LIGHT TRADES WERE RECENTLY DEPICTED IN GULF OF HONDURAS BY
15Z ASCAT PASS. SE FLOW HAS INCREASED VERY SLIGHTLY ACROSS NE
CARIB AS SE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO OPEN UP AND AROUND E SIDE OF
BROAD ATLC TROF. TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS S HALF OF TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS AND APPROACHING WINDWARDS ATTM WITH TRADES INCREASING TO
15-20 NEAR AND BEHIND WAVE.

THE BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND N OF THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WILL HAVE SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH W
BY SAT TO ALLOW STRONG CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD S INTO TROPICAL
ATLC TO INCREASE TRADES ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO 20 KT BY
SAT...AS WELL AS E TO ESE TRADES AROUND 20 KT BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS ERN CARIB THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN SEAS ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC AND FAR ERN
CARIB SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LONG FETCH OF FRESH WINDS SOUTH OF
ATLANTIC HIGH DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PEAK
AROUND 9 FT SAT.

REORGANIZING DEEP LAYERED CUT OFF LOW ACROSS ATLC WILL AID IN
PULLING WAVE RELATED MOISTURE N AND NW ACROSS ERN CARIB THIS
WEEKEND TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION AND PRODUCE AREAS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER THERE. MODEL BEGIN TO DIVERGE SUN ACROSS W CENTRAL CARIB
AS GFS AMPLIFIES INVERTED TROFFING ALONG 80W AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO
ADVECT MUCH FARTHER NW AND BEYOND CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK...WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS FLATTER. PREFER ECMWF SOLUTION DURING THAT PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH DOMINATES THE WATERS E OF 72W. LATEST
DATA DEPICTS A WEAKENING LOW NEAR 25.5N67.5W WHERE SCAT WINDS
SHOWED 20-25 KT ACROSS N SEMICIRCLE...WHILE A SECOND WEAK LOW HAS
DEVELOPED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 25N61W. STRONG WINDS
PREVAILING ACROSS NRN PERIPHERY OF BROAD TROUGH HAVE SHIFTED TO N
AND NE OF NEW SECOND LOW...AS PREDICTED BY GUIDANCE...AS ATLC HIGH
IS SHIFTING EWD AND TO THE N OF THIS TROUGH. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
ACROSS THE BROAD ELONGATED FETCH ACROSS THE TOP OF TROUGH...WHILE
SEAS TO 9 FT EXTEND SW FROM THERE TO 71W PER RECENT BUOY OBS.
THE BROAD TROUGH WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A NE-SW ORIENTATION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT SLOWLY DAMPENS OUT THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW AS
A REFLECTION OF REORGANIZING UPPER LOW. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS S FL AND NW BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK. GFS IS ABOUT 36-48 HOUR
FASTER THAN ECMWF WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND AM HESITANT TO GO WITH
GFS ATTM.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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