Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 281848
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT THEN LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AREA TO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT. A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH RUNS PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FEATURE FROM MOBILE BAY
TO TAMPICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ON THE SE
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND REMOTE SENSED DATA
INDICATE GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS
OVER MOST OF THE GULF.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR SUN AND MON CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK AND
DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA...NOW MOVING TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ERIKA REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED AND THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF ERIKA
IS FORECAST TO MOVE BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE
SUN...AND MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS A
TROPICAL STORM. THE PAST COUPLE OF FORECAST TRACKS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING MORE TO THE WEST...AND THE LATEST FORECAST ALLOWS FOR
SOME INFLUENCE OF ERIKA ON THE EASTERN GULF MON INTO TUE AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST FORECAST DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCDAT5/WTNT45 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W-NW AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY. A LARGE BAND OF CONVECTION
IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EAST OF THE CENTER N OF 14N BETWEEN
68W AND 70W. EARLIER REPORTS FROM NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT INDICATED SEAS
WITHIN THIS BAND WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST...AND WAVE
HEIGHT VALUES WERE MANUALLY ADJUSTED THROUGH LATE TODAY IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER
THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF ERIKA MOVES
INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.

ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT LESS THAN NORMAL DUE
THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE ADVANCE OF ERIKA. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS RIDGING
BUILDS NORTH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF ERIKA AND
SHIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY EARLY SAT AND THERE
IS BROAD AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS DEPICTING THIS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH THERE AFTER AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC. EXPECT GENERALLY MODERATE
WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NIGHTLY PULSES OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OFF WESTERN VENEZUELA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE
HEIGHTS.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE NW BAHAMAS ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE AREA. 1021
MB HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 29N65W. TO THE SOUTH OF
HIGH...A 14 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED STRONG E TO SE WINDS OFF THE
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA SOON TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 15 FT IN A
BROAD LOBE EXTENDING AS FAR AS 23N N OF HISPANIOLA.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND DEVELOP
SLOWLY AS THE CENTER MOVES W-NW BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN APPROACHES SE FLORIDA SUN. TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT WATERS OF AROUND BAHAMAS. THE FORECAST
LARGELY HINGES ON EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA...WHICH
REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST DISCUSSION
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDAT5/WTNT45 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING SAT INTO SUN.
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO TRENCH...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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