Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 311902
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
302 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

NEWLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS NEAR 24.7N 88.0W 1000 MB
AT 1800 UTC AUG 31 MOVING N AT 2 KT. STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN
FIRING NEAR THE CENTER AND IN BANDING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH UP TO
200 NM AS FAR AS JUST NW OF WESTERN CUBA AND JUST N OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING IN THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAVE DROPPED AS LOW AS -86 DEGREES CELSIUS. RECENT BUOY
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF ON THE PERIPHERY OF HERMINE. SEAS ARE
RANGING BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FT IN THESE AREAS...WITH 10 FT BEING
REPORTED AT BUOY 42003...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM NE OF THE
CENTER. 1508Z SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF GALES
EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM E AND S OF THE CENTER. RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS HERMINE IS ELONGATING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PERSIST ACROSS THE NW GULF AS WELL DUE TO
CONVERGENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS. GENERALLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE SW GULF WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
PREVAILING. HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BIG BEND REGION OF
FLORIDA AND REACH THE COAST THU NIGHT OR EARLY ON FRI. HERMINE
WILL CROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION BY FRI NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER T.S. HERMINE IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGING IS PROVIDING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN
SUPPORT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WEST OF 75W.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC, ALLOWING
TRADE-WIND FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A
LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WERE NOTED BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND
HAITI IN A 1330 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS. A WEAK TROUGH FROM 16N52W
TO 25N52W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE IT PASSES NEAR AND N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THU. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRI...THEN FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
TROPICAL WAVE SUN. THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MAY USHER IN INCREASED
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTH WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
ADJACENT WATERS W OF 75W ON THE SE SIDE OF SURFACE TROUGHING THAT
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM T.S. HERMINE IN THE S CENTRAL GULF.
T.S. HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AND MOVE TOWARD
THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA...ALLOWING THESE WINDS AND SEAS TO
INCREASE FURTHER STARTING THU NIGHT N OF THE BAHAMAS AND TO THE E
OF NE FLORIDA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FT IN THE WATERS N OF
29N W OF 75W THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HERMINE MOVES NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE...BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO ZONE
AMZ111 OFF NE FLORIDA FRI MORNING IN THE PROCESS. ELSEWHERE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO A POSITION BETWEEN 24N TO
26N, BRINGING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WITH IT. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT S OF 22N BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A
PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN S OF THE
REGION.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE
SANCTUARY...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO THU NIGHT.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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