Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 131859
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
159 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extending from the Straits of Florida
to near Tampico Mexico will exit the basin by the afternoon. Seas
over the eastern Gulf were up to 9 ft earlier, but are subsiding
to 5 to 7 ft as winds diminish. Another cold front will enter
the northern Gulf Thu, then reach from the Florida Big Bend area
in the NE Gulf to near Tampico Mexico by Fri afternoon, then
stall from Tampa to the Bay of Campeche on Sat before lifting
back to the W and NW through Sun as a warm front over the western
Gulf. Good cold air advection and a tight pressure gradient will
allow gale force winds along the coast of Mexico near Tampico
Fri afternoon and night, and farther south off Veracruz by late
Fri night. Seas will build to 8 to 11 ft, maybe a little higher
off the coast of Mexico in the area of gale force winds Fri night
into Sat. Fresh to strong southerly flow is anticipated over the
north central Gulf by late Sat behind the warm front. Looking
ahead, another cold front may enter the NW Gulf late Sun into
Mon, although there is some uncertainty among global models
regarding the timing and strength. The official forecast will
reflect a consensus approach for now showing a modest frontal
boundary moving across the western Gulf through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

A weakening stationary front extending from the Windward Passage
to central Panama will dissipate to a remnant trough tonight. An
earlier scatterometer satellite pass along with a concurrent
altimeter pass indicated fresh to strong northerly winds and seas
to 9 ft between the front and coast of Central America south of
18N. The winds and seas will gradually diminish from the through
Thu evening as the front weakens.

Meanwhile farther north, moderate to locally fresh northerly
winds will follow another front entering the northwest Caribbean
later this morning through the afternoon. The front will stall
from central Cuba to central Honduras Thu and dissipate Thu
night. High pressure will build behind the front allowing for
the return of strong nocturnal trades offshore of Colombia
starting Thu, with at least near gale force winds possible Sat
night and Sun night. The fresh to strong trades will cover the
entire central Caribbean for the second half of the weekend into
early next week, with plumes of stronger winds across the
approaches to the Windward and Mona Passages.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A cold front reaching from 31N70W to the Straits of Florida will
move SE and reach from 26N65W by early Thu before stalling and
eventually dissipating along 22N into Fri. Winds were reaching
gales force earlier ahead of the front near 30N, but are now
diminishing below gale force. Winds and seas will diminish across
the region Thu as a ridge builds along 25N through Thu in the
wake of the front. Strong southerly winds will increase again Thu
night north of 27N ahead of another cold front that will move
off the NE Florida coast early Fri, and reach from Bermuda to
South Florida Sat, before reaching from 24N65W to eastern Cuba
early Sun. High pressure builds off the Carolina coast in the
wake of the front, maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds
south of 22N through Sun. Looking ahead, there is some indication
southerly winds will increase off the NE Florida coast Mon ahead
of yet another front moving off the SE United States coast, but
timing and strength remain uncertain at this time.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri into Fri night.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.



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