Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGXX40 KNHC 031804
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
104 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM GEORGIA TO EAST TEXAS NORTH OF THE GULF THIS
MORNING. WARM MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WAS SUPPORTING AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NW AND NE GULF EARLY
THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG WAS NOTED OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL WATERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MUCH OF THIS HAS LIFTED OVER THE
OFFSHORE AREAS AS NOTED IN VARIOUS PLATFORM DATA AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. FOG WILL AGAIN BE A FACTOR MAINLY OVER THE NW GULF
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE INDICATES DENSE FOG WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE TOMORROW AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SUPPORTING THE ADVANCE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED...REACH
FROM MOBILE BAY TO SOUTH OF TAMPICO EARLY THU...THEN STALL FROM SW
FLORIDA TO FAR SW GULF BY EARLY FRI. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION
CONCERNS THE LIKELIHOOD OF GALES OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES OFF
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THU MORNING. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND SREF ARE NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION IN GMZ011 AND GMZ013. HOWEVER IT REMAINS LIKELY THAT
EVEN SUSTAINED WINDS STAY JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THERE WILL BE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...AND THUS GALE CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE NW GULF THU MORNING. THERE REMAINS A GOOD CHANCE
OF SUSTAINED GALES OFF THE TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ COASTS OF
MEXICO LATER IN THE DAY THU AND THU NIGHT...PERSISTING WELL INTO
FRI OFF VERACRUZ.

FOR FRI THROUGH SUN...THE STRONG FUNNELING WINDS OFF VERACRUZ
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY SAT...BUT PERSISTENT TROUGHING
OVER THE SW GULF WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FAR WESTERN GULF THROUGH SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE WARNING FORCE
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 9-13 FT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...6-9 FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...5-6 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 7-10 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE WARNING FORCE OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD N
OF THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY WED NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED THIS MORNING FROM 31N60W TO 29N70W TO
31N75W. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE
TODAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING FRESH TRADES OVER THE REGION S OF 22N...IN
PARTICULAR NEAR THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON WED. THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THU...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVING OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST LATE THU. THE NEW FRONT WILL REACH
FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA ON FRI BEFORE STALLING LATE FRI.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING THE FORMATION OF
A WEAK LOW PRES AREA ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST BY LATE SAT. WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN POSITION AND TIMING...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS
THIS LOW MOVING N OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUN...WITH THE TRAILING
FRONT REMAINING STALLED N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE IMPACT ON MARINE
CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS ANTICIPATED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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