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000
AGXX40 KNHC 291834
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
234 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Very active convection associated with deep layered troffing
lifting slowly across NE Mexico and S Texas continues to produce
strong to gale force winds across portion of the NW gulf this
afternoon. Earlier squall line moving E to SE now colliding with
line of moderate cnvtn across W portions, while Garden Banks
platform just reported 39 kt. Technique that we use to generate
weather worked poorly this morning and still trying to catch up
with ongoing weather that is likely to continue to shift NE
across N central portions into tonight. Veracruz trough has
become fairly well organized today with suggestion of low forming
and enhanced SE flow to the E and SE. Thus model wave heights
across much of NW and W central portions way too low and still
adjusting.

A surface high over the far E gulf will drift N and meander over
the far ne gulf waters through Fri night with moderate southerly
return flow over the waters W of 88W, increasing to fresh breeze
each evening, except locally strong se flow forecast just
offshore of Veracruz. Expect 3 to 5 ft seas to prevail throughout
the period. Model suggesting tightening pressure gradient Wed
through end of work week as Atlc ridge builds W and strengthens
across regional Atlc waters.

A thermal trough will develop late each afternoon over the
Yucatan Peninsula, and shift w across the southwestern gulf
waters, generally to s of 24N between 90W and 93W, during the
overnight and early daylight hours, and gradually lose identity
along about 94W by late each morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

Modest Atlc ridge centered over central Atlc extends weakly Wwd
across area waters to NW Bahamas along about 26N, and is only
supporting moderate to fresh e trades across the basin today,
with strong trades in climo position of 11N-13N off of Colombia.
Seas are generally 5-7 ft except 7-9 ft off of Colombia. Fresh
trades are found E of the Antilles where a tropical wave is now
crossing 60W, with SAL draped across the N of this low lat
feature. Recent altimeter data showed seas 7-9 ft entering the
waters, while French buoy 41099 showing 7 ft in the coastal
waters this morning, all suggesting wave guidance is low 1-2 ft
and have bumped up that are in the short term.

Pair of tropical waves moving through the basin today with
leading wave along 70W attm has interacted past few days with mid
level troffing from central Atlc SW to NE Carib and triggering
sct cnvtn. Waves will continue W next few days while nrn
extension of wave moving across Mona Psg attm will continue WNW
across Greater Antilles next 48-60 hrs and then across Straits of
Fl by around 72 hrs. Sfc high will redevelop across W Atlc to the
N of the area during this time to tighten pres gradient and
freshen winds through the entire week, spreading W to Gulf of
Honduras by Wed night.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Weak ridge extend e to w along about 26N today to NW Bahamas
where it will meander through Tue, then drift slowly n to along
28N-29N Wed through Thu and along 30N on Fri. Moderate to fresh
easterlies are expected S of 23N, except strong along the N
coastal waters of Hispaniola during the late afternoon and
evenings. Moderate S to SW flow forecast NW of the ridge across
the NW waters. As mentioned above, N extension of central Carib
tropical wave has begun to shear off and will move WNW across
Greater Antilles and adjacent waters of Bahamas next 3 days for
scattered light to moderate cnvtn.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.



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