Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 151853
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

VALID 12Z FRI SEP 19 2014 - 12Z TUE SEP 23 2014

THE 15/00Z ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SERVED AS THE BASELINE
FOR THE DAY 4 THROUGH DAY 8 ALASKA MEDIUM RANGE PACKAGE. THOUGHT
THE DETERMINISTIC 15/00Z ECMWF AND 15/12Z GFS SOLUTIONS WERE
USEFUL WITH SOME OF THE KEY SURFACE DETAILS THROUGH DAY
6---ROTATING A MODERATELY-INTENSE SHORTWAVE NORTHWARD ALONG 140W
AND INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST COAST---LATE
DAY 6. AT THE VERY LEAST---TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE WILL SIGNAL THE
END OF THIS RATHER FALL-LIKE AND WETTER PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA AND TRANSITION A COOLER...ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE
INTERIOR FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

BEYOND DAY 7...MAINTAINED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE TWO MEANS AND AN
ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AT/OR JUST SOUTH OF
50N LATITUDE.

VOJTESAK

$$




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