Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 281045
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
645 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. RETROGRESSING
TUTT LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE LOW IS TO MEANDER WEST JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY ON FRIDAY...NEARING THE TURKS LATER IN THE
DAY. AT MID LEVELS THE TUTT IS FIGHTING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
LOSING BATTLE AGAINST A BROAD CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ENVELOPING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. THE
RIDGE SUSTAINS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP INVERSION...AND THE WEAK TUTT
PATTERN IS GOING TO HAVE A HARD TIME BREACHING THE CAP. AS A
RESULT...CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WITH THE TUTT...IF ANY...WILL
LIMIT TO WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY TO
MONDAY MORNING. DURING THAT PERIOD A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE
PULLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING A MOIST ADVECTIVE
PATTERN. IN A REVERSAL TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE EUROPEAN MODELS
NOW SHOW BEST CONVERGENCE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLES-PUERTO RICO...WITH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARING MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE GFS...IN CONTRASTS... CONTINUES TO SHOW
MOST ACTIVE BUILDING TO THE NORTH...ONLY SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE VI. THE NCEP ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ADD TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WITH MODELS SPLITTING EVENLY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS. BUT IF MJO CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AS SOME OF THE CLIMO MODELS SUGGEST...THE WETTER SOLUTION
MIGHT BE THE BETTER OPTION.

CABANERIT...INAMEH (VENEZUELA)
CONTRERAS...IMN (COSTA RICA)
CASTILLO...UCR (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$




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