Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 011834
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

AT 15 UTC...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED AT 14.0N AND 58.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WHERE OF 45KT WITH GUSTS OF 55KT. BERTHA
WAS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR AT 295 DEGREES AND AT 18KT.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1008 HPA.

DISCUSSION FROM AUGUST 01/00UTC: ACROSS MEXICO...MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION CONSTRAINS TO THE NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN TIER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
AND UPPER VENTILATION REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL VENTILATE DIURNAL
STORMS LEADING TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM/DAY. SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF COAHUILA/NUEVO LEON PRODUCING MAXIMA OF
15-30MM/DAY...INCREASING TO ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO...DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE CONSTRAINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST...AND IN A MORE
ISOLATED MANNER...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ. QUIET PATTERN IS DOMINATING MOST OF NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS
PEAKING AT 15-20MM/DAY.

OTHER REGION OF INTEREST IS CUBA/BAHAMAS/HISPANIOLA...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH TUTT LOW RETROGRADING. THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION LEADING TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS. THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THIS
WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL ACTIVITY ACROSS HISPANIOLA LEADING TO
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...EXPECTING
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY. ACROSS CUBA...EXPECTING MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY. FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...STRONGEST IMPACTS WILL
CONSTRAIN TO THE BAHAMAS WITH MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY...AND CUBA
WITH MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY.

MOST REMARKABLE SYSTEM ON THE BASIN IS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA (SEE
THE NHC WEBSITE FOR DETAILED INFORMATION). THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES...AND THEN PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PARTS OF
HISPANIOLA. THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECTING LARGEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ANTILLES AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH
AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM IN INTERACTION WITH
OROGRAPHY. ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
DURING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EXPECTING LARGEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF
50-100MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 150-250MM IN INTERACTION WITH THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF THE CORDILLERA. ELSEWHERE IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EXPECTING MAXIMA OF
50-100MM/DAY. DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF
25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM IN INTERACTION WITH OROGRAPHY.
DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...EXPECTING LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE TURKS AND CAICOS/SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH AMOUNTS OF
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL DOMINATE COSTA RICA/PANAMA AND
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ AND AN
ACTIVATION OF THE PANAMANIAN LOW. EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO INCREASE TO 35-70MM/DAY AFTERWARDS. TO
THE EAST...INDIRECT EFFECTS OF BERTHA WILL STIMULATE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF VENEZUELA LEADING TO MAXIMA IN THE
ORDER OF 20-45MM/DAY. LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE TO CONCENTRATE BETWEEN
GRENADA/TOBAGO/TRINIDAD AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN CONCENTRATE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
VENEZUELA/WESTERN VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
71W     73W    75W    77W    79W     81W    83W    85W    TUTT
INDUCED
77W     79W    DISSIP                                     TUTT
INDUCED

A TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION ON THE EASTERLY TRADES HAS ITS AXIS
NORTH ALONG 71W. LARGEST EFFECTS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE ALONG THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON FRIDAY...AND EASTERN CUBA/BAHAMAS ON
SATURDAY. SEE ABOVE FOR ACCUMULATIONS.

ANOTHER TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION IS INITIALIZED ALONG 77W. THIS
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING...STILL ALLOWING
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN HISPANIOLA. WAVE WILL ALSO AID
CONVECTION ACROSS PANAMA WHILE WEAKENING.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$





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