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000
FXUS06 KWBC 062047
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI MARCH 06 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 12 - 16 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION
PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TROUGH
OVER WESTERN ALASKA EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC, A RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST CONUS, SPLIT-FLOW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS INTO MEXICO, AND A TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND, EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF ALASKA,
AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE CONUS. NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE NOTABLY FORECAST OVER MAINE IN THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUN.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS, AS WELL AS THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL REGIONS. PREDICTED ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ALOFT ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE REST OF THE CONUS AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA, UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA
INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST. ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR ARIZONA, SOUTHERN COLORADO, SOUTHERN TEXAS,
AND THE SOUTHEAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE OHIO RIVER AND MARYLAND, UNDER THE
PREDICTED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE
ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN OREGON AND WESTERN NEVADA, UNDER A
PREDICTED RIDGE, AND FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST,
DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE.


TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL FORECASTS AND VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 14 - 20 2015

ENSEMBLE MODEL PREDICTIONS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA IN THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD IS PREDICTED TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, AS
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE AND BECOME ABOVE-NORMAL OVER EASTERN
PARTS OF THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS ARE ALSO PREDICTED TO DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD,
AS THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED.

THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR IN THE 6-10 DAY AND THE 8-14 DAY
FORECAST PERIODS, WITH GENERALLY REDUCED PROBABILITIES IN THE 8-14 DAY FORECAST
AS UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. ABOVE-NORMAL IS MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN ALASKA IN
THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, AS ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE NOW PREDICTED.
DECREASING 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD LEAD
TO LOWER PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD.

THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN PREDICTED FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE PACIFIC
COAST, UNDER A RIDGE. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR A
SLIGHTLY LARGER AREA OF THE SOUTHWEST COVERING ARIZONA AND COLORADO, WHILE
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONTINUE IN THE 8-14 DAY FORECAST. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.


THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL FORECASTS AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS, AS WELL AS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY WITH A CHANGING CIRCULATION PATTERN.

FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19670306 - 19530305 - 19780314 - 20020303 - 19660214


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19670306 - 19780314 - 19530306 - 19760312 - 19660215


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 12 - 16 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    B
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    B
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        N    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 14 - 20 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       N    B
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        N    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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