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FXUS06 KWBC 192001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU JANUARY 19 2017

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 25 - 29 2017

TODAY`S DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED NEAR
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE NATION, WHILE A RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE CONUS. A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. TODAY`S BLENDED 500-HPA CHART INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN
ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.

LARGE POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THE
EASTERN U.S. WHICH, DESPITE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST OVER MOST OF
THESE REGIONS, FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AS A
WHOLE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FARTHER NORTH, WHERE POSITIVE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FAVORS
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AND VERY LARGE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES.
THIS LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCES THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALASKA.

AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK THAT BRINGS STORM SYSTEMS ONSHORE IN ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR ALASKA. A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FAVORS ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THOSE AREAS. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE FORECAST ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT STORM SYSTEM ACTIVITY FROM
MOVING INTO THE CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC, INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN U.S. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAVOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 60% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE DYNAMICAL FORECAST TOOLS,
OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS IN SOME
AREAS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 27 - FEB 02, 2017

THE 500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD BY THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.

THE TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECAST DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD FEATURES LOWER
PROBABILITIES THAN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD DUE TO AN INHERENT INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY, ALONG WITH A FEW DIFFERENCES. ONE DIFFERENCE IS AN AREA OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR PARTS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE WEEK-2 PERIOD,
ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA
WHICH FAVORS WARMING. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE IS THAT A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BY DAY 8, FAVORING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD.

THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECAST DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO
THAT IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH A FEW DIFFERENCES. THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEW ENGLAND IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE
DOMAIN BY DAY 8, SO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS NOW FAVORED IN THOSE AREAS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 70% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE DYNAMICAL FORECAST
TOOLS, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS IN
SOME AREAS.

FORECASTER: MIKE CHARLES

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 16

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070101 - 19640129 - 19730123 - 19930120 - 19890124


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070101 - 19730121 - 19930121 - 19800116 - 19870104


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 25 - 29 2017

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      B    B     NRN CALIF   B    B
SRN CALIF   B    B     IDAHO       B    B     NEVADA      B    B
W MONTANA   B    B     E MONTANA   B    B     WYOMING     B    B
UTAH        B    B     ARIZONA     B    B     COLORADO    B    B
NEW MEXICO  B    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    B     OKLAHOMA    N    B
N TEXAS     B    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     B    B
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    N    B
ARKANSAS    N    B     LOUISIANA   N    B     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI N    B     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    B
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    B
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    N    B     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 27 - FEB 02, 2017

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      B    B     NRN CALIF   B    B
SRN CALIF   B    B     IDAHO       B    B     NEVADA      B    B
W MONTANA   B    B     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     B    B
UTAH        B    B     ARIZONA     B    B     COLORADO    B    B
NEW MEXICO  B    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      N    B     OKLAHOMA    B    B
N TEXAS     B    B     S TEXAS     B    B     W TEXAS     B    B
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    B    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    B     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    N    B     MISSISSIPPI B    B     MICHIGAN    N    B
INDIANA     N    B     OHIO        N    B     KENTUCKY    B    B
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    B     NEW YORK    A    B
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    B
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B
PENN        N    B     NEW JERSEY  N    B     W VIRGINIA  B    B
MARYLAND    N    B     DELAWARE    N    B     VIRGINIA    B    B
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    B     GEORGIA     B    B
FL PNHDL    B    B     FL PENIN    B    B     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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