Text Products for PMD Issued by SPD

Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
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FXUS01 KWBC 191955
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Valid 00Z Sat Apr 20 2024 - 00Z Mon Apr 22 2024

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday...

...Light to moderate snow over parts of the Central Rockies and
Central High Plains overnight Friday into Saturday and a second
area of light snow over the Cascades and Northern Intermountain
Region on Sunday...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms from the southern Mid-Atlantic,
Southeast to the Southern Plains on Friday and Saturday...

A front extending from Upstate New York southward to the
Mid-Atlantic and then westward to the Western Gulf Coast will move
off the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast by Saturday afternoon.
The boundary lingers along the Gulf of Mexico Coast through Sunday
evening. As the front moves into the southern
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast, showers with strong to severe
thunderstorms will develop over the area. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast through Saturday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal
threat of tornadoes. The area of showers and thunderstorms will
extend into parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern
Plains through Friday night. Moreover, rain will develop over
parts of the Northeast Friday night into Saturday as light snow
showers develop over parts of the Upper Great Lakes, ending by
Saturday afternoon.

Overnight Friday into Saturday, upper-level energy and upslope
flow associated with strong high pressure over the Northern High
Plains will help produce light to moderate snow over parts of the
Central Rockies and Central High Plains.

On Saturday, as the front settles over the Gulf Coast, showers
with strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Southern Plains and Southeast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over two areas,
the Southern Plains/Western Gulf Coast and the second area over
the Southeast from Saturday into Sunday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.
The showers and thunderstorms will also produce heavy rain over
parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
with these thunderstorms. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
and small streams the most vulnerable. On Sunday, the strong to
severe thunderstorm threat has come to an end.

However, showers and thunderstorms will continue over parts of the
Southeast to the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, a front will come
onshore over the Pacific Northwest Saturday afternoon and move
eastward to the Northern High Plains and Great Basin by Sunday
evening. The system will produce rain over parts of the Pacific
Northwest Coast through Sunday evening. Furthermore, overnight
Saturday, light snow will develop over the Cascades and parts of
the Northern Intermountain Region by early Sunday morning,
continuing into Sunday evening.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
