Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS21 KWNC 241952
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 24 2016

SYNOPSIS: A STATIONARY FRONT IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE 3 TO 7 DAY PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE U.S. ON FRIDAY. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA DURING THE 3 TO 7 DAY PERIOD. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BY SUNDAY.

HAZARDS

HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
FRI, MAY 27.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, UPPER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND UPPER GREAT LAKES, SUN-TUE, MAY 29-31.

SEVERE WEATHER FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, FRI, MAY 27.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY,
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC, FRI-SAT, MAY 27-28.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IMMINENT, OR LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, FRI-SAT, MAY 27-28.

SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA (AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
ARIZONA AND OREGON), NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING, AND HAWAII.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR FRIDAY MAY 27 - TUESDAY MAY 31: A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD
TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE 3 TO 7 DAY PERIOD. SURFACE LOWS ALONG THIS
STATIONARY FRONT MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND CENTRAL PLAINS MAY RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL OR GREATER IN A
24-HOUR PERIOD, WHEREAS THE GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OR GREATER IN
24-HOURS). THIS RAIN MAY PROLONG OR EXACERBATE FLOOD CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN TEXAS ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOOD CONDITIONS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY
BE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
MAY CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, TEXAS, ARKANSAS, AND LOUISIANA
ON SATURDAY, NORTH-CENTRAL STATES ON SUNDAY, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY TO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THESE AREAS CANNOT BE INCLUDED AS RISKS AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LOW PREDICTABILITY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE.



THIS STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO ANTICIPATED TO BRING EPISODES OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY TO TUESDAY. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY RECEIVE UP
TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OR GREATER IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD. EXPECTED RAIN IN ALL
THE HIGHLIGHTED HEAVY RAIN AREAS MAY PROLONG OR EXACERBATE FLOOD CONDITIONS IN
AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY FLOODING.



SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE 3 TO 7 DAY PERIOD. THIS PATTERN FAVORS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST DAILY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK (ANOMALIES OF 16 DEGREES F OR GREATER). MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES MAY REACH 90 TO 95 DEGREES F IN THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION.



SOME MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUBTROPICAL SURFACE TROUGH OR LOW TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, UNDERCUTTING THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE MAY
BRING WET WEATHER TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME, EXPECTED RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HAZARDS CRITERIA, PRECLUDING THE ADDITION OF A
RELATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.



POTENTIALLY HIGH WIND SPEEDS AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES BEHIND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY SUPPORT
ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, NEW MEXICO, AND
EASTERN TEXAS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A WILDFIRE RISK AREA CANNOT BE IDENTIFIED AT
THIS TIME DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER (40% FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER). THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 01 - TUESDAY JUNE 07: IN GENERAL, THE MAJORITY OF THE
COUNTRY IS PREDICTED TO HAVE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW, WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS
CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, AND WESTERN ALASKA, INCLUDING THE
ALEUTIANS. THIS PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WESTERN ALASKA, AND THE ALEUTIANS.



ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (ISSUED MAY 19), SEVERE, OR GREATER
INTENSITY, DROUGHT COVERS 4.07 PERCENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AREAS
(INCLUDING ALASKA, HAWAII, AND PUERTO RICO), DOWN FROM 4.49 PERCENT LAST WEEK.
THIS IS THE LOWEST COVERAGE SINCE OCTOBER 2010. A VISUAL COMPARISON BETWEEN THE
TWO LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAPS REVEALS ONE-CATEGORY IMPROVEMENTS IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA (D2 TO D1), WESTERN NEVADA (D3 TO D2), AND UTAH
(D1 TO D0).

FORECASTER: MELISSA OU

$$




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