Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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FONT11 KNHC 051458
PWSAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 45.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

ILE ST PIERRE  34  1   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

BURGEO NFLD    34  3  16(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)

PTX BASQUES    34  8  32(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

EDDY POINT NS  34 35   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)

SYDNEY NS      34 21   8(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)

SABLE ISLAND   34  7   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

HALIFAX NS     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

YARMOUTH NS    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
YARMOUTH NS    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

MONCTON NB     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MONCTON NB     50 22   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)

ST JOHN NB     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ST JOHN NB     50 18   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

EASTPORT ME    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
EASTPORT ME    50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BAR HARBOR ME  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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