Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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FONT14 KNHC 292036
PWSAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
2100 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)

MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)

MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)

KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

NAPLES FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

PT GALLINAS    34  3  32(35)  18(53)   4(57)   5(62)   1(63)   X(63)
PT GALLINAS    50  X   5( 5)   7(12)   2(14)   4(18)   1(19)   X(19)
PT GALLINAS    64  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

CURACAO        34  6   5(11)   3(14)   2(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  18(23)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  24(35)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  21(29)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  15(27)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  15(30)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  25(36)  14(50)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  10(21)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)

GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)

MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  21(32)   7(39)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   5(17)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)

KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  21(24)  26(50)   7(57)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)   5(27)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)

LES CAYES      34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)  20(28)  17(45)   7(52)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   4(19)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)  10(18)  12(30)   4(34)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

CAPE BEATA     34  4   6(10)   3(13)   3(16)   8(24)   6(30)   2(32)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   5(14)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  4   1( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   3(10)   3(13)   2(15)

PONCE PR       34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

AGUADILLA PR   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

SAN JUAN PR    34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

VIEQUES PR     34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



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