Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 050043
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
843 PM EDT WED MAY 04 2016

...VALID 01Z THU MAY 05 2016 - 12Z THU MAY 05 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA...

SURFACE DATA AS OF 00Z INDICATED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ACRS
THE FL PENINSULA SOUTH OF JAX AND WAS CONTINUING TO PUSH SLOWLY
EWD.  SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS..SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WERE
STILL OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
FL..THOUGH THE MORE ORGANIZED BAND HAD SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
KEYS AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  WITH CONTINUED ADVANCE OF STG
MID/UPR LEVEL S/WV ACRS FL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS..SHOULD SEE
MUCH DRIER CONDS SPREAD ACRS THIS REGION BY 06Z...ESSENTIALLY
CUTTING OFF ANY RESIDUAL TSTM ACTIVITY AND THREAT OF ISOLD HEAVIER
RAINS BY THAT TIME.  UNTIL THEN...A FEW SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
.50 TO 1 INCH MAY OCCUR OVER ERN/SERN PORTIONS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE..WITH ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT RESTRICTED TO URBAN
AREAS...OR POOR DRAINAGE AREA AND THESE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLD.


...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE PATTERN HAS FAVORED REPEATED RAIN EVENTS WITH DIURNAL
AFTERNOON/EVENING ENHANCEMENT TO RAIN RATES IN THIS REGION OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE ACCORDINGLY
LOW...BUT AT THE SAME TIME...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN DECREASING EACH
DAY AS THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRIMARY LARGE SCALE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT SLIPS FARTHER OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC.
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MORE SHALLOW AND WEAKER THAN
IN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE MODELS DEPICTING 500 J/KG OR LESS OF
CAPE. STILL...SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND SOME PIVOTING OF THE
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE DIFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AREA
OPENING UP AHEAD OF A DIGGING 500 MB LOW. THIS MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL...AT LEAST RELATIVE TO THE LOW FFG. WITH
SUCH WEAK INSTABILITY AND AN ABSENCE OF INFLOW...HOWEVER...IT IS
DOUBTFUL HOW EFFICIENT THE CELLS CAN BE. MOST OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS PRODUCE SPOTTY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH TOTALS.

SULLIVAN/BURKE
$$




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