Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 310032
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...VALID 01Z SUN JUL 31 2016 - 12Z SUN JUL 31 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 W MIV 10 E ESN 10 SSW 2W6 OFP 20 W OFP 15 SE CHO 15 NW OMH
JYO 10 SE LNS 15 NW PTW TEB 10 NNE BLM NEL 20 NNE MIV 15 W MIV.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 WSW 4HV 35 SW 4HV 40 ENE PGA 45 S PGA 25 ENE FLG 20 WSW FLG
40 SW 40G 40 NNE IGM 35 ESE HND 25 WSW LAS 25 NW VGT 60 NE DRA
60 NW SGU 25 S MLF 40 WSW 4HV.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NW HUT 35 N RSL 20 SE HDE 10 W EAR 25 NNW EAR 15 ESE ODX
15 NNE AUH 25 NW BIE 10 NW FOE 30 ENE CNU 30 ESE CFV BVO
30 NW HUT.


0100 UTC UPDATE


...MID ATLANTIC REGION...

SIGNFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH MAIN
FOCUS FOR PSBL ORGANIZED EXCESSIVE RAINS IN ADVANCE OF FAIRLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BAND OR BANDS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN VA NEWD
ACRS NJ TOWARD WRN LONG ISLAND.  RECENT MESO ANALYSIS INDICATED AN
AREA OF 1 TO NEARLY 2 THSD J/KG MLCAPE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND.  SEVERAL BOWING ELEMENTS WITHIN
THE BAND WERE BEING MET WITH NEARLY 20 KT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AT
TIMES ALONG WITH OVER 2 INCH PWS WHICH WERE SUPPORTING SOME
INTENSE RAIN RATES ALONG WITH SOME TEMPORARY E/W STATIONARY BANDS
SUPPORTING LOCAL 1 TO 3+ INCH SHORT TERM RAIN RATES. FARTHER
NE...STORMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE WARM FRONT OR EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONTAL BNDRY OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE HAD PRODUCED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF CNTL/SRN NJ
AND THE ADDITION THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINS..WHILE A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES GIVEN THE
EARLIER HEAVY RAINS AND ANTECEDENT MOIST SOIL CONDS.  SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM MOST OF THE HRRR RUNS APPEARED A BIT SLOW..BUT
STILL SUGGEST POTNL FOR LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING.


...SW UT/NW AZ/SRN NV...

A REORIENTATION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACRS THE SW WAS MADE WITH
AT LEAST A HIGHER CONSENSUS IN THE HRRR RUNS DURING THE LATE
AFTN..INDICATING A BETTER FOCUS ACRS PARTS OF SRN UT/SRN NV INTO
NW AZ DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS WITH STORMS BUILDING SWD
INTO SW/NE ORIENTATED INSTABILITY/HIER CAPE AXIS FROM CNTL NV/UT.
WHILE FORCING APPEARS WEAK..THERE IS A NOTABLE E/W AXIS OF HIER
MID/UPR LEVEL MSTR NOTED IN WV IMAGERY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE CNTL
SIERRA ACRS SRN NV INTO UT.  SFC DPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO
MID 50S ACRS SW UT/NW AZ WITH NOSE OF NEAR 1 INCH PWS GETTING INTO
SW UT.  IF STORMS BECOME BETER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND BECOME A
BIT MORE LINEAR AS ADVERTIZED BY SEVERAL HRRR RUNS...THIS WILL
INCREASE THREAT OF SOME LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES ACRS THIS REGION.
SEE MPD #507 VALID UNTIL 330Z FOR ADDITONAL INFORMATION.


...EASTERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN NEBRASKA / NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...

OPPORTUNITY FOR LARGER SCALE AND MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET TO STRENGTHEN AND SET UP ACRS THIS
AREA OVERNIGHT.
MOST GUIDANCE PRODUCES A SWATH OF SOMEWHAT HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO ADJACENT
NE/MO/OK. THOUGH PLACING THESE SWATHS IN ADVANCE CAN BE
DIFFICULT...IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL
OVERLAP WITH LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AS PARTS OF EASTERN
KS AND ADJACENT OK HAVE SEEN ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
WEEK.


...ARLATEX TOWARD THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

DOWNSTREAM OF THE PLAINS ENVIRONMENT...THE PRECIPITATION
DISTRIBUTION IS SOMEWHAT MORE CHAOTIC...BUT MODELS GENERALLY
INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL FROM THE ARKLATEX
INTO WESTERN TN/MS...AIDED AT TIMES BY OUTFLOWS ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST...AND THEN ALSO IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS DOWNSTREAM OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT AREAS TO THE
EAST. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACRS THIS AREA
MAINLY THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PD.

SULLIVAN/BURKE
$$





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