Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 231848
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 24/0000 UTC THRU APR 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NEW ENGLAND...

AGAIN..THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE CLUSTERED FAIRLY WELL
IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEGATIVE TILT H5 TROF SWINGING THRU NEW
ENGLAND THIS PERIOD..WITH A NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE TROF FORECAST TO
MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY THRU EASTERN ME ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE MID LEVEL TROF AND THE
FOCUSING SURFACE TROF SHOULD SUPPORT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OVER EXTREME EASTERN ME INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES..WITH MANUAL QPF CLOSELY FOLLOWING VERY AGREEABLE MODEL
QPF SOLUTIONS.


...CENTRAL STATES...

THE EJECTION OF THE ROCKIES H5 TROF INTO THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL SIGNAL THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE/RAINFALL EVENT..WITH ACTIVITY IN THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PUSHING INTO MUCH OF THE MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY.  WELL
DEVELOPED RETURN OF HIGHER GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH DECENT HEIGHT
FALLS..FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THE CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK..ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THE GFS AND NAM MAY BE SUFFERING A BIT FROM FEEDBACK PROBLEMS
VICINITY OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY..SO DECREASED THEIR QPFS
HERE..ALTHOUGH A STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTON REGIME SHOULD
STILL LEAD TO SOME GREATER THAN 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PARTS OF
IA INTO MN AND WI.  FARTHER SOUTH..ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BE MOVING
STEADILY EASTWARD AT LEAST THRU THIS PERIOD..LIKELY KEEPING AREAL
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.50-1.50 INCH RANGE.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...

THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION
PATTERN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 1ST HALF OF THE
PERIOD..FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUED WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT LATER THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THRUOUT WESTERN WA..OR AND NORTHWESTERN CA..WITH THE
HEAVIER TOTALS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COASTAL
RANGES AND CASCADES.  MODEL TIMING CONTINUED TO BE SIMILAR..SO
TENDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/CANADIAN GEM
QPF SOLUTIONS.  WEAKENING FRONT AND DECREASING MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS THERE.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 485614 494626 501637 505644 509653 513667 516677 518689
      515704 512710 506716 501719 498721 491721 484718 480715
      475713 461719 456723 453730 453733 450736 442738 434730
      435725 437720 434718 425715 407698 403690 400681 399679
      398674 398667 402653 404647 406641
 0.01 513093 533128 543131 551126 555107 555079 550030 536974
      532958 522928 517919 512910 506901 503895 500891 493881
      490876 486873 478864 469855 461850 456849 452850 446852
      442854 434859 424865 412870 401875 389880 370887 360891
      351897 312922 308926 306930 305935 304941 303946 303952
      305958 308962 297979 290990 294000 290002 287006 288010
      292012 302016 316016 330017 345018 350018 354016 358017
      366017 369019 371022 371030 373035 379035 382036 383039
      388047 391050 397051 401048 405044 407037 407030 405022
      405017 406012 410008 414004 422999 433995 441991 452991
      463996 471004 479012 487024 492033 495043 498059 500070
      513093
 0.01 512292 515281 516274 516268 517253 518246 517240 514231
      512227 512221 514211 519209 525204 526198 525192 515176
      499149 494141 490133 484127 475123 471122 469118 474114
      476112 477106 474103 470101 451073 446069 442071 442075
      451086 452088 450092 447094 445093 440093 433095 431099
      432104 431111 433116 436117 439120 441122 442128 438137
      434142 431145 429150 427161 422161 422153 424138 422136
      419136 416137 415143 413151 413155 414160 413167 414171
      414177 416180 423187 428195 427200 424202 419201 416203
      417206 421212 422216 421217 416216 410211 406210 403214
      402221 404224 394233 390243 390253 389259 389263 390273
      393277 395277 400275 403273 409272 417271 425271 432275
      449281 454281 460283 464284 468284 482284 492295 494301
      498304 505308
 0.01 316847 318833 319822 318818 312814 308812 290807 278805
      271805 267808 267813 269816 273820 279823 285824 292826
      296828 300830 302833 303836 304840 305850 309852 313852
      315850 316847
 0.25 543062 544054 544046 542035 535011 531992 522976 513959
      502940 495925 487910 478894 472884 466876 462871 456867
      448867 442870 410890 382902 365910 356916 350921 345927
      341933 337940 334949 329956 329963 332967 340970 346971
      348976 348980 345983 339989 340993 343997 345999 349000
      358998 364996 369997 375998 378002 384010 387012 392011
      398007 408996 433969 438964 444961 452960 457961 460964
      466970 473974 480981 487989 494002 502018 520056 526073
      528076 531079 533080 537078 541070 543062
 0.25 507279 508264 511257 511248 509239 505229 495206 490198
      488193 488187 490182 491173 490166 487161 472150 469145
      465142 459143 456148 452151 449152 438150 435154 433159
      434166 437171 444189 447194 449200 451205 450209 448211
      441214 433216 429217 424220 418230 410232 403236 399239
      400243 407253 415256 425257 464258 474258 481261 485264
      492270 498278 504282 507279
 0.25 501669 500660 498653 492646 489643 484641 477638 468637
      459638 449639 439641 433643 429647 426651 425655 425663
      428669 434675 450682 458685 465690 473694 481694 493689
      496687 498683 500680 500674 501669
 0.50 532032 533024 532018 531007 528997 524989 517975 510965
      500952 496944 492936 485925 481920 479912 479908 477905
      470903 468898 468892 466886 464882 461878 453878 440882
      426889 412897 406899 399902 387907 374915 367920 362925
      354935 351940 351946 354948 387951 385956 381960 371967
      380979 391990 390998 392001 396001 401998 405993 410988
      415982 425968 432958 436953 442948 449946 456949 468959
      478966 482970 487977 496989 505005 511017 519030 522033
      527036 531034 532032
 0.50 502270 503265 503259 504251 505244 504238 502230 500223
      494213 489208 484205 478205 473206 463210 454213 442216
      433219 429222 426224 425229 424232 422233 416234 411235
      409238 409243 411247 417251 424252 431252 441251 463249
      469249 476250 482254 486257 494267 499270 502270
 0.50 491664 490660 488655 484651 477647 472645 459643 443646
      436650 433656 432661 434666 438671 451676 463682 469685
      475686 483682 488677 491670 491664
 0.50 483178 484171 484166 481161 478158 470153 467151 464152
      461156 461163 462167 463170 461172 456178 453182 453187
      459182 463179 466178 474179 482181 483178
 0.50 357994 358991 357989 355988 353988 351988 350989 350990
      349991 348993 349995 351995 353995 355995 357994 357994
 1.00 489218 486215 482211 475212 458217 441220 437223 433225
      431229 434231 444229 447228 449232 447236 442239 444241
      449241 458241 466240 471239 475243 479243 480240 479236
      475234 471236 469235 466230 467226 471221 474219 478219
      486220 489218
 1.00 455915 455906 453899 450895 444897 439902 438906 435914
      436922 439928 442933 445934 448933 451928 453922 455915
 1.00 427245 429243 429240 428239 426238 425237 423237 421236
      420236 418236 416237 415239 414241 415243 416244 418245
      420245 422246 423246 425246 427245 427245
 1.00 411969 401986 403989 414976 417969 416965 411969
 1.00 402926 401919 398915 393916 387918 382920 377925 373929
      373934 379938 384939 390938 396936 400932 402926
 1.50 424241 423239 423238 422238 421239 419240 420242 422242
      424242 424241

$$





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