Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 060950
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
449 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 06/1200 UTC THRU MAR 09/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


1000 UTC UPDATE

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE.


DAY 1

MOST OF THE NATION WILL BE DRY DAY 1---AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN U.S. AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOTALS POSSIBLE
ON THE EDGES OF THIS SURFACE HIGH.  LIGHT TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING ARCTIC
FRONT.  LIGHT TOTALS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TX IN AN AXIS OF
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH.  LIGHT
PRECIP/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION AS WARM ADVECTION SPREADS
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL U.S.


DAYS 2/3...

***SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA***

A LARGE AND SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA WILL STRETCH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TO SRN PLAINS ON FRI. THE RIDGE WILL SPLIT ON SAT TO
ALLOW THE SRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY TO BE CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WITH AN ERLY ONSHORE COMPONENT DEVELOPING INTO SERN FL.
THIS IS ALSO THE LOCALE WHERE THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL STALL. NEEDLESS TO SAY... EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM MLB
TO MIA/NRN KEYS ON SAT AND THIS SAME ORIENTATION ON SUN WITH
MOISTURE POSSIBLY SPREADING NORTH TO NERN FL. WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE GFS/ECMWF EACH DAY.

***UPPER PLAINS TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES***

A COUPLE OF MODEST SHORT WAVE IMPULSES IN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL TRACK NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER TO GENERATE VERY
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT QPF. THE FIRST SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND ON SAT... FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER VORT PROGRESSING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES ON SUN. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN A .25 OF AN INCH INVOF EACH FEATURE. THE ECMWF/GFS WAS THE
PRIMARY SOURCE FOR QPF.

***TEXAS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTH***

A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF BAJA CA WILL ADVANCE
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WEEKEND TO CROSS NRN MEXICO ON SAT AND ARRIVE
INTO TX ON SUN AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ORIGINALLY ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT AND GRADUALLY ALLOW AN INCREASE OF GULF OF MEXICO AND
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO FLOURISH AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM
TROUGH. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING FROM
WEST TX THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE TO THE TX COASTLINE. HOWEVER BY SUN
MIDDAY/AFTN THROUGH MON MORNING... HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST/COASTAL TX INTO LA. INITIALLY IT APPEARS A
WEAK BATCH OF UPPER DYNAMICS DETACHES FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
TO TRACK FROM TX/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY/SRN
APPALACHIANS BUT QPF SHOULD BE MINIMAL HERE. THE MAIN TROUGH THEN
MOVES INTO TX AND EXPECT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUX TO POOL OVER
SOUTHEAST/COASTAL TX LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON MORNING. WPC
GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF/GFS BOTH DAYS.

ORAVEC/MUSHER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 533219 534211 533206 533201 532195 530188 528180 527172
      524167 521161 519156 514152 512154 512157 510162 508162
      505163 504166 505173 509186 512192 516197 519202 521208
      526220 529222 531221 533219
 0.01 533077 533072 532069 530061 527047 523033 521025 518020
      514016 513014 509013 504014 501016 501018 505032 509045
      513058 518072 521076 526080 531080 533077
 0.01 507285 507280 506277 506272 505269 502267 500265 498266
      496270 497274 498278 499280 501283 504285 507285
 0.01 514887 512874 509864 501844 498835 495831 492830 488831
      485835 479842 476836 477829 481821 486813 491805 495797
      497793 498788 499763 502757 503751 504746 504739 504726
      503718 501715 499711 495709 488706 485703 481706 473708
      469718 464726 454740 445757 441761 440766 439776 438788
      438795 435797 425800 419801 418804 421809 424810 433813
      439817 447817 457819 460823 461828 459837 456842 452845
      446850 435851 427850 422851 420853 418858 421862 424865
      428865 449863 452861 453868 454882 453889 453895 455911
      457915 459919 462923 463928 466940 469950 472959 474963
      475971 478994 481006 484016 488025 491028 493028 496023
      497017 497003 497988 495977 493971 495966 498963 497958
      492936 491932 492928 495924 498922 502921 507914 510905
      513895 514887
 0.01 366733 364726 360722 357721 351721 346724 342727 337734
      326751 316767 311775 305783 302787 300791 297796 294797
      286793 275792 268790 262791 258793 252795 250799 248803
      247808 248814 250818 254820 258819 264813 272806 275805
      278808 285814 282819 279823 279828 281833 281844 283848
      289848 302835 313820 319811 323802 331785 336776 341767
      353753 357747 361743 366733
 0.01 231985 231990 232993 234996 236999 241004 243007 242012
      245018 250023 255022 258021 260015 260004 260999 262996
      264992 268991 271988 270982 270974 272971 272966 272962
      270958 266953 261956 257958 254958 246957 239959 235963
      231971
 0.25 336760 335757 332759 330761 329764 327766 326768 325771
      326775 329773 331771 333768 334765 335763 336760
 0.25 263803 263802 261801 259800 257800 256801 256802 255804
      255806 255808 256809 258808 260807 261806 263805 263803
      263803

24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 538205 538192 536188 534184 531179 530173 530156 529151
      526145 522136 518127 513117 510114 506111 504114 502119
      500124 498122 496117 495113 492101 490097 486094 482083
      479074 476069 475064 473053 470042 467028 464018 460007
      459001 458992 459985 460977 462973 461969 461965 457957
      454946 453929 460918 464905 470895 474888 477892 479897
      473920 471927 471931 477941 485958 476959 472959 469962
      472969 479975 488992 492995 493999 493004 498013 503034
      507044 512053 517062 522068 528069 532068 536063 537059
      536052 535047 532038 539035 542033 545028 545011 539000
      528986 525978 520970 517967 514962 507957 502957 499961
      497960 497958 500953 501948 501940 498927 496923 494919
      489914 485913 483910 485905 487899 487894 486886 485879
      484874 480842 476835 470828 467824 465819 461807 466797
      468791 468785 470774 468759 466754 463751 457744 456736
      458731 460725 463721 467712 470701 472692 475683 479676
      477672 474670 469670 464671 459674 456678 451688 450694
      450702 450706 445709 441711 438715 430723 425731 420733
      417733 415731 414722 417717 420709 426704 430701 430696
      428693 424691 420691 417694 414696 411701 411707 412715
      411728 412741 414747 417753 417759 417765 416771 412774
      410780 408784 405788 401790 392796 385802 380807 376810
      377814 381814 386815 389816 391818 392821 394826 397825
      402826 405829 408833 411831 416829 418833 421835 424839
      425844 428849 430854 433857 438861 441865 454874 458877
      462881 462885 461888 458891 455894 454902 451905 450901
      447897 444896 437892 434890 430890 427900 427931 427940
      426946 426962 427967 428975 427989 429999 432997 434993
      439995 441997 441001 444013 445024 447031 449035 451038
      451045 447053 447060 445067 441068 441073
 0.01 441073 448079 452086 452090 448093 447099 449104 453106
      455102 456100 458100 461103 466105 467110 469115 472117
      483132 485136 486141 488147 491149 501163 502171 501178
      501184 504189 515203 521210 527215 530216 534212 538205
 0.01 465095 465092 465090 464087 464085 463082 462084 462087
      462089 462092 463094 464095 465095
 0.01 352088 347076 342074 336077 331080 330083 331086 332088
      336089 338093 338097 339104 339107 337110 328109 324112
      322115 321118 323120 325118 329114 332112 336113 343117
      345116 341102 342098 345095 349091 352088
 0.01 339947 339943 338941 336939 333938 321938 318932 313930
      310930 308932 306937 305940 301940 299934 292935 287939
      283941 280948 277949 277952 277957 266962 262964 260967
      260972 281977 285974 288975 286978 282981 275984 260000
      260005 261009 257010 245014 241017 239021 239028 242034
      244038 249042 253046 257051 257055 255057 252058 249058
      244060 243063 244066 252075 254080 256082 260083 266082
      270079 280074 284070 288065 289057 289053 288050 287034
      288031 289029 292028 295029 299028 301027 300025 295023
      292016 301010 304006 309003 312998 313995 316994 319990
      321980 323975 328971 332968 332965 334960 339947
 0.01 316054 316050 315048 316043 316039 315036 314032 314028
      313028 311030 311034 311039 311043 312045 312049 312054
      313056 315056 316054
 0.01 287804 286796 284793 279791 275791 270792 265790 260791
      256792 250799 245807 243812 244817 249815 252818 256820
      260817 263813 269812 274810 278808 283809 286806 287804
 0.25 284999 284997 281995 280995 279997 277001 275003 274005
      274009 276011 278008 281007 283005 284001 284999
 0.25 272799 272797 270795 266794 264794 261795 259797 258799
      257801 259803 261803 265802 267802 270801 272799


24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 508893 508880 505870 504865 502860 497853 490853 485854
      483857 481861 479857 475850 470843 473833 474823 474810
      472803 470797 467794 461790 453791 450799 448809 446817
      446824 448829 448835 447841 443848 441856 445863 448866
      449870 452879 456889 457893 458899 460903 462905 468902
      471904 473907 474913 473917 470925 470928 472928 474934
      476943 479947 481945 483943 486939 489930 492922 499917
      502914 505907 508893
 0.01 478774 478768 477766 473760 463748 453742 448741 448735
      451726 457714 466711 467706 465701 461698 455701 444714
      439718 437726 434729 430730 425731 424725 422713 417707
      409708 405714 404721 405725 407727 412734 414739 414745
      415751 414756 408753 406752 405755 406764 407770 411775
      413779 414784 410791 412801 411811 411819 412822 413828
      416873 417878 417884 418890 416893 417903 420912 421931
      423943 426950 430950 433948 435942 437931 442923 445918
      445908 445902 443898 443892 441888 434873 431867 428857
      426849 427840 426834 428830 427817 428795 429785 431778
      435773 436765 437760 440756 442759 446760 448761 451765
      455771 461775 467777 474781 477778 478774
 0.01 434739 433738 432737 431737 430738 428738 426737 425739
      426740 428741 430742 430744 432743 433742 433741 434739
 0.01 384754 381747 377748 375750 372755 370763 367772 363778
      358785 356792 351809 348828 345834 341840 339848 336856
      331860 328859 328854 327850 324850 320851 317853 309852
      304857 302859 298859 295857 295851 298844 303838 304835
      304828 302825 303821 305818 305814 301809 295805 291799
      289797 284796 278795 274792 272789 271784 270774 270763
      269752 268742 266739 263738 261737 259739 254744 252751
      250759 248767 247776 248786 249796 248799 245801 243802
      242806 244809 248809 251808 254810 256813 257819 261824
      263825 269824 271823 274823 278821 278817 275811 278812
      279815 283817 288812 289817 287821 287825 289827 291825
      296824 298828 298832 292845 289864 284879 283882 283885
      285894 289898 289905 278939 274945 271950 265953 261958
      252969 248976 246980 248980 250989 251998 253002 256004
      258006 262007 265009 265014 266018 266023 270029 269034
      267037 267046 271046 273044 277040 281039 285040 289042
      292045 295047 298048 301052 303053 307052 314066 323079
      325081 329083 331089 336090 338088 340084 345083 346080
      345076 341079 339080 335081 332079 334077 338073 333072
      331067 330064 327063 324064 321067 318064 318060 321057
      325058 334061 338061 340058 340052 340047 338041 332034
      334030 337028 339021 343014 350003 359989 362983 363977
      364974 367965 368962 371960 373963 375960 376955 376942
      373931 371923 370918 370911 373903 373895 371888 371883
      372878 374874 374867 375857 374846 375837 375826 376818
      377809 376804 374800 373794 372790 371785 372782 372776
      374773 380766 384754
 0.01 380074 380072 381069 381067 380066 379065 378064 377064
      375063 373063 371063 371064 372066 373067 374069 375071
      375073 375075 376076 378077 378076 380074 380074
 0.25 343936 343930 342926 339922 337916 336906 332895 329893
      324894 321894 318891 316886 315881 312877 307877 302882
      300887 299894 292912 290920 286930 283938 277947 268960
      263969 261972 259978 264985 268993 271002 277003 280007
      280011 279015 280021 281026 288031 291030 293025 294019
      296015 301008 304000 308997 315998 317001 316004 324003
      327000 326994 327984 332977 334972 333968 338947 343936
 0.25 331055 330054 329053 329052 327051 326053 327054 328055
      329056 330056 331055
 0.25 287022 287020 287019 286020 286022 287023 287022
 0.25 273801 272800 272799 270797 269796 268795 266794 264794
      262794 260795 259797 259798 258799 259801 261802 263802
      265802 265803 267803 268803 270803 272802 273801
 0.50 330924 327919 322917 313907 310894 308891 305892 303899
      302905 298911 295916 293922 288934 282945 275954 272960
      270968 270972 274977 276979 275982 272988 270994 272997
      276998 283997 287999 289002 296999 299998 300995 303990
      311981 321973 324969 325962 327955 328945 328932 330924
 1.00 320956 319950 320942 318938 314936 310933 308928 307923
      308916 308911 306909 301916 291933 287942 282949 279954
      277958 278968 279972 280979 276989 273992 274995 278994
      282991 286990 290988 297983 312971 317964 320956
 1.50 309947 308942 305937 303932 303924 300921 297926 292934
      288944 283954 281959 281964 287968 294962 298958 303958
      305956 307952 309947
 1.50 308971 308969 306967 305968 303971 302973 303974 305974
      306973 306972 308971
 1.50 305918 305916 304915 304916 303917 302918 301920 303922
      304920 304918 305918
 2.00 302947 299943 299935 300928 297928 296931 293935 291941
      288947 286952 285956 287959 292957 296953 300949 302947

$$




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