Recreational Report
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
SXUS43 KTOP 290532
RECTOP

MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1232 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING TS AT THE TERMINALS REMAINS LOW DUE TO WEAK
FORCING AND A LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE FEATURE TO FOCUS
CONVECTION. BECAUSE OF THIS, REFINEMENT TO THE FORECAST IS LIKELY
TO BE NEEDED. WITH THE INITIAL WAVE MOVING IN AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW, JUST WENT WITH A
TEMPO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IT`S HARD TO SEE IF THERE IS AN
MCV OVER CENTRAL KS, BUT THE RAP HAS ONE ANALYZED OUT THERE SO THE
CHANCE FOR TS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WHILE I
DON`T EXPECT THERE TO BE CONTINUOUS RAINFALL, IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PICK OUT A CHUNK OF TIME WHEN PRECIP COULD NOT OCCUR. BECAUSE OF
THIS CONTINUE WITH A VCTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY EVENING WITH
THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE. SINCE THIS IS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST, WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TRY AND NAIL DOWN THE FROPA A
LITTLE BETTER. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER CIGS WITH THE
FRONT AS WELL.

.THIS MORNING...
    SUNRISE:                         601 AM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           6 AM  160/07 MPH
                                     8 AM  170/09 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 600 PM):        200FT  181/13 MPH
                                      400FT  185/16 MPH
                                      600FT  181/16 MPH
                                      800FT  181/16 MPH
                                     1000FT  189/17 MPH
                                     1500FT  198/18 MPH
                                     2000FT  206/27 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM):      SURFACE 170/07 MPH
                                       33FT  175/14 MPH
                                      187FT  176/16 MPH
                                      459FT  185/25 MPH
                                      865FT  190/30 MPH
                                     1396FT  197/31 MPH
                                     2045FT  205/29 MPH
                                     2770FT  217/25 MPH
                                     3570FT  227/22 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM):      SURFACE 180/10 MPH
                                       27FT  185/17 MPH
                                      184FT  186/19 MPH
                                      456FT  192/25 MPH
                                      861FT  201/31 MPH
                                     1390FT  209/35 MPH
                                     2037FT  216/30 MPH
                                     2758FT  223/24 MPH
                                     3558FT  226/20 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM):      SURFACE 192/12 MPH
                                       39FT  193/17 MPH
                                      196FT  194/20 MPH
                                      468FT  196/23 MPH
                                      874FT  201/31 MPH
                                     1390FT  209/35 MPH
                                     2037FT  216/30 MPH
                                     2758FT  223/24 MPH
                                     3558FT  226/20 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                6 AM  2071 FT
                                     8 AM  2144 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:         839 PM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 PM  230/10 MPH
                    8 PM  250/07 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$







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