Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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TXUS20 KNES 180611
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
NYZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/18/14 0610Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0545Z  KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...NEW YORK...
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ATTN WFOS...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
ATTN RFCS...NERFC...OHRFC...
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EVENT...LAKE PLUME OFF OF ONTARIO CONTINUING TO DEVELOP...ESTABLISHED
LAKE PLUME OFF OF LAKE ERIE...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BIG PICTURE SHOWED NEARLY N=S TROUGH
ORIENTED FROM JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY THEN MORE POSITIVELY TILTED AND SW
TO ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN TEXAS.  UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW HAS HELPED LAKE
PLUME ON ERIE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED AS A LONG FETCH SNOW PLUME COMING
INTO ERIE COUNTY FROM OFF THE LAKE AND EXTENDING ENE THRU WYOMING COUNTY
AND FANNING OUT ACROSS LIVINGSTON INTO ONTARIO COUNTY AND TRYING TO
SETTLE INTO WAYNE COUNTY ON EAST EXTENT.  HIGHEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
SNOW RATES WITH THIS SINGLE PLUME OFF  LAKE ERIE WAS WOBBLING ACROSS
CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY AT 2-4"/HR AND SETTLING OVER NORTHERN WYOMING/EXT
S GENESEE AT 1-2"/HR  PAST HR OR SO.    THEN LESS PERSISTENT BUT NOW
SETTLING W TO E RECENTLY ACROSS N LIVINGSTON...N ONTARIO AND SETTLING
SOUTH THRU WAYNE. EAST EXTENT FROM WAYNE TO N CAYUGA INTO OSWEGO WAS
TRYING TO FEED INTO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOW PLUME THAT
STILL ONLY HAD DEVELOPED A FETCH ACROSS HALF OF THAT LAKE COMPARED TO
75 PERCENT OR GREATER OVER LAKE ERIE WITH THAT WELL ESTABLISHED MORE
INTENSE SNOW PLUME INTO ERIE COUNTY.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THAT PLUME CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND BEING HELPED BY
EAST EXTENT OF LK ERIE SNOW PLUME.   ONTARIO PLUME WAS DEVELOPING IN THE
VIC OF S JEFFERSON/N OSWEGO COUNTY WITH INCREASING SNOW RATES TO 2"/HR AND
EXTENDING ENE WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS C/N LEWIS INTO N HERKIMER COUNTY.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0600-1200Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MOVEMENT WITH LK ERIE PLUME MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT
ORIENTED THRU CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY, NY WHERE 2-4" SNOW RATES WILL BE
COMMON AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXTENDING EAST  FROM N WYOMING/EXT S GENESEE
TO ONTARIO COUNTY BEFORE FANNING OUT EAST FROM THERE.
LK ONTARIO PLUME STILL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH BEST ACTIVITY
N OSWEGO/S JEFFERSON INCREASING TO 2-4"/HR RATES AND TAPPERING LOWER
RATES LEWIS COUNTY EAST AND ENE FROM THERE.   SHORT WAVE HANGING BACK
IN N WISCONSIN...UPPER MICHIGAN STILL FAR WAY SO NO HELP IN FURTHER
ENHANCING SNOW RATES OR PUSHING  PLUMES SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4431 7467 4394 7440 4262 7799 4225 8032 4381 7671

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