Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 170217
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
NMZ000-AZZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/17/14 0217Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15 0145Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...NEW MEXICO...ARIZONA...
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ATTN WFOS...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...CBRFC...
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EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES FOR HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH ODILE
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST VIS, 89GHZ IMAGERY AND NHC ADVISORY
INDICATE THAT CENTER OF TS ODILE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY N THIS EVENING
AND WAS CNTRD ON E PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA JUST W OF ANGEL DE
LA GUARDA ISLAND.  LATEST BLENDED PW ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DEEP S
FLOW TO THE E OF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FUNNEL DEEP MOISTURE SURGE UP THE
GULF OF CA THIS EVENING WITH ANOMALIES RAPIDLY INCREASING OVER MUCH OF
THE SW TO OVER 200% ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES.  MOST RECENT
2135Z NOAA AMSU RAINFALL RATES IN THE VIC OF ODILE INDICATED THAT AREA
OF ROUGHLY 0.3-0.5"/HR RAINFALL RATES EXTENDED ROUGHLY ABOUT 40-80 MILES
S OF AN AXIS FROM FHU TO GBN AND THEN SW TO JUST E OF THE CNTR OF ODILE.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO THE N AND NE OF ODILE PREVENTS MUCH USE TO GOES
SOUNDER DATA BUT AREA SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING MOSTLY WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS FROM
EPZ TO TUS.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0100-0700Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AS ODILE CONTINUES LIFTING SLOWLY N UP THE W
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE OVER N MEXICO, INTEGRATED MOISTURE FLUX SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT MOST OF S AZ AND SW NM TOWARDS INCREASINGLY
FRONTOGENIC BOUNDARY OVER PORTIONS OF S AZ AS NOTED ON 0Z UA ANALYSIS.
THIS COMBINED WITH SUPPORT FROM OUTFLOW ENHANCED JET STREAK NEAR THE
CREST OF MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASINGLY DEEP LAYER
OF FORCING TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF S AZ AND S NM THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
BELIEVE THAT MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO INFLOW AXIS
AND FEEDER BANDS OVER PORTIONS OF FAR SE AZ AND SW NM WITH ISOLATED
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE N.   BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD,
CONVECTION SHOULD LIKELY REORGANIZE NEAR AND JUST DOWNSEHAR OF VORTEX
CORE DURING PREFERENTIAL DIURNAL CYCLE AND THIS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
PORTIONS OF FAR S AZ LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3407 10834 3348 10740 3166 10679 3035 10756 3028 10926
3068 11100 3092 11224 3177 11316 3281 11231 3380 11032

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