Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
000
UXUS97 KBOU 011318
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0718 MDT Friday, August 1, 2014

This forecast is for Friday, August 1, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 72.5 F/22.5 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 610 ft/min (3.1 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 14151 ft MSL (8866 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 82.0 F/28.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1030 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1430 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast thin high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 12657 ft MSL (7372 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Saturday 08/02..... Good

Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 14123 ft MSL (8838 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Neither
Potential height of wave....................... 14859 ft MSL (9574 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Saturday 08/02........ Poor

Remarks... Scattered showers and thunderstorms

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:58:29 / 20:13:24 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 14 min 55 sec (854 min 55 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:05:43 MDT... 68.10 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 08/01/2014 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 15163 ft MSL (9878 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 12126 ft MSL (6841 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 13625 ft MSL (8340 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -1.2
K index......................... -9.2

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -63.9 -83.0   310   34   18   1.9   1.1   86.7 188.1    34.3      M    M
 45000  -59.9 -75.8   290   46   23   2.7   1.5   69.2 156.5    25.8      M    M
 40000  -53.9 -65.0   280   70   36   7.0   3.9   54.6 130.4    18.0      M    M
 38000  -50.5 -58.9   280   67   34   9.1   5.0   51.1 123.9    16.0      M    M
 36000  -45.1 -49.2   280   63   33  10.0   5.5   50.4 122.8    16.0      M    M
 34000  -39.8 -39.6   285   58   30   7.9   4.3   49.8 121.6    15.9      M    M
 32000  -35.5 -31.9   290   53   27   9.0   5.0   47.6 117.7    14.7      M    M
 30000  -30.9 -23.6   295   44   22   9.0   4.9   46.1 115.0    13.9      M    M
 29000  -28.2 -18.8   295   38   20   9.0   4.9   45.8 114.4    13.8      M    M
 28000  -25.6 -14.1   300   33   17   7.8   4.3   45.4 113.7    13.6      M    M
 27000  -22.6  -8.7   305   26   14   7.1   3.9   44.5 112.1    13.2      M    M
 26000  -21.0  -5.8   295   22   11   2.2   1.2   42.9 109.1    12.0      M    M
 25000  -18.8  -1.8   285   19   10   8.4   4.6   42.1 107.7    11.5      M    M
 24000  -16.9   1.6   280   18    9   5.1   2.8   40.8 105.5    10.6      M    M
 23000  -15.4   4.3   285   15    8   1.9   1.0   39.0 102.2     9.2      M    M
 22000  -13.7   7.3   280   10    5   7.9   4.3   37.7  99.8     8.1      M    M
 21000  -12.7   9.1   270    5    3   1.3   0.7   35.5  96.0     6.3      M    M
 20000  -10.7  12.7   275    9    5   8.3   4.5   34.6  94.2     5.4      M    M
 19500   -9.7  14.5   290    9    5   5.2   2.9   33.8  92.9     5.0      M    M
 19000   -8.3  17.1   305    8    4   9.2   5.0   33.5  92.4     4.9      M    M
 18500   -7.0  19.4   310    7    4   7.6   4.2   33.4  92.0     4.9      M    M
 18000   -5.9  21.4   320    6    3   7.0   3.8   32.9  91.2     4.5      M    M
 17500   -5.0  23.0   330    5    3   6.4   3.5   32.4  90.3     3.9      M    M
 17000   -4.4  24.1   350    4    2   6.3   3.5   31.7  89.0     3.1      M    M
 16500   -3.1  26.4   010    4    2   7.2   4.0   31.3  88.3     3.0      M    M
 16000   -1.9  28.6   025    5    3   6.7   3.7   30.8  87.5     2.7      M    M
 15500   -0.9  30.4   025    4    2   6.8   3.7   30.3  86.6     2.3      M    M
 15000    0.1  32.2   015    3    2   6.8   3.7   29.8  85.7     1.8      M    M
 14500    1.1  34.0   360    2    1   5.7   3.1   29.4  84.9     1.4      M    M
 14000    1.1  34.0   335    2    1  -2.1  -1.1   28.2  82.7    -0.1    710  3.6
 13500    1.4  34.5   245    1    1   8.1   4.4   26.5  79.6    -2.0    677  3.4
 13000    2.3  36.1   200    2    1   4.4   2.4   25.8  78.5    -2.6    637  3.2
 12500    3.2  37.8   190    4    2   7.9   4.3   25.4  77.7    -3.2    596  3.0
 12000    4.2  39.6   180    5    3   6.7   3.7   25.0  77.0    -3.6    550  2.8
 11500    5.3  41.5   165    6    3   8.0   4.4   24.5  76.2    -4.0    503  2.6
 11000    6.6  43.9   155    8    4   8.3   4.6   24.3  75.8    -4.2    449  2.3
 10500    7.9  46.2   150    9    5   9.3   5.1   24.2  75.6    -4.3    394  2.0
 10250    8.5  47.3   150    9    5   8.6   4.7   24.1  75.5    -4.4    369  1.9
 10000    9.1  48.4   155    9    5   8.3   4.6   24.0  75.2    -4.6    344  1.7
  9750    9.6  49.3   155    9    5   8.4   4.6   23.9  75.1    -4.8    320  1.6
  9500   10.2  50.4   155   10    5   8.5   4.7   23.8  74.9    -5.0    296  1.5
  9250   10.8  51.4   160   10    5   8.7   4.8   23.7  74.7    -5.1    271  1.4
  9000   11.4  52.5   160   10    5   8.8   4.8   23.7  74.6    -5.2    244  1.2
  8750   12.1  53.8   160   10    5   8.8   4.8   23.6  74.5    -5.3    217  1.1
  8500   12.7  54.9   160    9    5   8.8   4.8   23.5  74.4    -5.4    190  1.0
  8250   13.4  56.1   160    9    5   8.8   4.8   23.5  74.3    -5.5    164  0.8
  8000   14.0  57.2   160    9    5   8.8   4.8   23.4  74.1    -5.5    137  0.7
  7750   14.7  58.5   155    8    4   8.8   4.8   23.3  74.0    -5.6    110  0.6
  7500   15.3  59.5   155    8    4   8.9   4.9   23.3  73.9    -5.7     83  0.4
  7250   16.0  60.8   150    7    4   8.7   4.8   23.2  73.7    -5.8     56  0.3
  7000   16.6  61.9   145    7    4   9.3   5.1   23.1  73.6    -5.9     29  0.1
  6750   17.3  63.1   155    6    3   7.1   3.9   23.0  73.5    -6.0      2  0.0
  6500   17.5  63.5   170    5    3   1.9   1.1   22.6  72.7    -6.5      M    M
  6250   17.3  63.1   185    5    3  -2.0  -1.1   21.9  71.4    -7.5      M    M
  6000   17.1  62.8   205    5    3  -2.0  -1.1   21.0  69.7    -8.4      M    M
  5750   16.9  62.4   210    4    2  -5.5  -3.0   20.0  68.1    -9.4      M    M
  5500   15.8  60.4   215    4    2 -20.9 -11.5   18.4  65.1   -11.2     10  0.0

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           08/01/2014 at 0900 MDT          |       08/01/2014 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +11.0  LI... -2.0               | K index... +9.7  LI... -1.5
CAPE... +171.6  CIN... -38.1               | CAPE... +171.1  CIN... -6.6
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -61.8 -79.2  295  31 16   2.2   1.2 | -62.0 -79.6  290  34 17   3.0   1.7
 45000 -58.4 -73.1  290  55 28   2.3   1.3 | -57.9 -72.2  290  56 29   2.1   1.2
 40000 -53.8 -64.8  285  61 32   7.2   4.0 | -53.7 -64.7  280  64 33   6.9   3.8
 38000 -49.5 -57.1  285  58 30   7.3   4.0 | -49.5 -57.1  280  56 29   7.0   3.8
 36000 -45.1 -49.2  285  54 28   7.3   4.0 | -45.3 -49.5  285  48 25   6.9   3.8
 34000 -40.6 -41.1  290  46 24   7.6   4.2 | -40.9 -41.6  285  41 21   7.5   4.1
 32000 -36.0 -32.8  290  37 19   7.5   4.1 | -36.4 -33.5  280  35 18   7.3   4.0
 30000 -31.4 -24.5  290  32 16   7.7   4.2 | -31.6 -24.9  280  30 16   8.2   4.5
 29000 -29.2 -20.6  295  30 16   7.7   4.2 | -29.1 -20.4  285  28 15   8.2   4.5
 28000 -26.9 -16.4  295  28 15   7.6   4.2 | -26.2 -15.2  290  26 13   6.6   3.6
 27000 -24.1 -11.4  295  24 12   7.2   4.0 | -24.3 -11.7  290  22 11   6.5   3.6
 26000 -22.0  -7.6  295  20 10   7.2   4.0 | -22.3  -8.1  290  18  9   6.5   3.6
 25000 -19.8  -3.6  300  16  8   7.0   3.8 | -20.4  -4.7  295  14  7   6.7   3.7
 24000 -17.9  -0.2  300  14  7   6.3   3.5 | -18.2  -0.8  300  12  6   7.4   4.0
 23000 -16.1   3.0  300  13  7   6.3   3.5 | -16.0   3.2  310  10  5   7.4   4.0
 22000 -14.2   6.4  300  12  6   6.1   3.4 | -13.8   7.2  325   9  5   6.8   3.7
 21000 -12.5   9.5  305  11  6   5.9   3.2 | -12.0  10.4  340   8  4   6.0   3.3
 20000 -10.8  12.6  310  10  5   5.9   3.2 | -10.2  13.6  350   8  4   6.0   3.3
 19500  -9.9  14.2  315  10  5   5.8   3.2 |  -9.3  15.3  360   9  4   5.9   3.2
 19000  -8.9  16.0  320  10  5   7.2   3.9 |  -8.4  16.9  005   9  5   6.5   3.5
 18500  -7.9  17.8  325   9  5   7.0   3.9 |  -7.4  18.7  010   9  5   6.4   3.5
 18000  -6.8  19.8  330   9  5   6.8   3.7 |  -6.4  20.5  015   9  5   6.7   3.7
 17500  -5.8  21.6  335   9  5   6.6   3.6 |  -5.4  22.3  015   9  5   6.9   3.8
 17000  -4.9  23.2  335   9  5   6.6   3.6 |  -4.4  24.1  015   9  5   6.9   3.8
 16500  -3.8  25.2  340   9  5   7.0   3.8 |  -3.4  25.9  020   9  5   6.4   3.5
 16000  -2.8  27.0  345   8  4   7.0   3.8 |  -2.5  27.5  020   9  4   6.5   3.5
 15500  -1.7  28.9  350   8  4   7.0   3.9 |  -1.5  29.3  020   8  4   6.5   3.5
 15000  -0.7  30.7  355   6  3   7.0   3.9 |  -0.6  30.9  025   6  3   6.4   3.5
 14500   0.4  32.7  005   4  2   6.8   3.7 |   0.4  32.7  040   5  2   6.3   3.4
 14000   1.8  35.2  035   3  1   6.5   3.6 |   1.7  35.1  085   4  2   6.0   3.3
 13500   2.8  37.0  065   3  1   6.8   3.7 |   2.6  36.7  110   5  2   6.7   3.7
 13000   3.7  38.7  080   2  1   6.9   3.8 |   3.6  38.5  120   6  3   6.9   3.8
 12500   4.7  40.5  095   2  1   6.5   3.6 |   4.5  40.1  130   6  3   6.9   3.8
 12000   5.5  41.9  130   2  1   6.5   3.6 |   5.4  41.7  135   7  3   7.0   3.9
 11500   6.4  43.5  165   2  1   6.5   3.6 |   6.3  43.3  140   7  3   7.4   4.1
 11000   7.2  45.0  175   4  2   6.4   3.5 |   7.3  45.1  140   7  4   7.6   4.2
 10500   8.0  46.4  180   6  3   3.1   1.7 |   8.2  46.8  145   7  4   3.2   1.7
 10250   8.2  46.8  180   6  3   4.5   2.5 |   8.4  47.1  145   7  4   5.7   3.1
 10000   8.7  47.7  175   7  4  10.3   5.6 |   9.1  48.4  145   7  4  12.7   7.0
  9750   9.4  48.9  170   8  4   9.9   5.4 |   9.9  49.8  140   7  3  11.4   6.3
  9500  10.0  50.0  165   8  4   7.4   4.1 |  10.7  51.3  140   6  3   8.9   4.9
  9250  10.5  50.9  165   9  4   5.6   3.0 |  11.2  52.2  140   6  3   7.3   4.0
  9000  11.0  51.8  165   9  5   9.7   5.3 |  11.8  53.2  145   6  3  10.5   5.8
  8750  11.8  53.2  160   9  5  11.6   6.4 |  12.7  54.9  140   6  3  11.6   6.4
  8500  12.6  54.7  160   9  5   9.1   5.0 |  13.5  56.3  140   6  3  10.1   5.5
  8250  13.2  55.8  155   9  5   8.5   4.7 |  14.2  57.6  145   6  3   9.5   5.2
  8000  13.8  56.8  155   9  5   9.0   5.0 |  14.9  58.8  145   6  3  10.5   5.7
  7750  14.5  58.1  150   9  5   8.8   4.8 |  15.7  60.3  145   6  3  10.7   5.9
  7500  15.1  59.2  150   9  5   8.3   4.5 |  16.4  61.5  145   5  3   9.7   5.3
  7250  15.7  60.3  145   9  5   8.0   4.4 |  17.2  63.0  145   5  3   9.8   5.4
  7000  16.3  61.3  140   9  5   8.9   4.9 |  17.9  64.2  145   5  3   9.7   5.3
  6750  16.9  62.4  135   9  5   6.7   3.7 |  18.7  65.7  145   5  3  10.2   5.6
  6500  17.2  63.0  140   8  4   4.7   2.6 |  19.4  66.9  145   5  2  10.7   5.9
  6250  17.5  63.5  140   6  3   4.4   2.4 |  20.2  68.4  145   5  2  10.5   5.8
  6000  17.8  64.0  150   5  2   7.7   4.2 |  21.0  69.8  145   5  2  11.0   6.0
  5750  18.6  65.5  145   4  2  13.9   7.6 |  22.0  71.6  145   4  2  16.2   8.9
  5500  19.6  67.3  150   4  2  13.7   7.5 |  23.4  74.1  145   4  2  23.6  12.9

           08/01/2014 at 1500 MDT          |       08/01/2014 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +19.2  LI... -2.1               | K index... +24.7  LI... -2.4
CAPE... +242.1  CIN... -4.9                | CAPE... +279.3  CIN... -12.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -61.9 -79.4  295  37 19   3.8   2.1 | -62.0 -79.6  300  43 22   3.3   1.8
 45000 -57.1 -70.8  295  57 29   1.7   0.9 | -57.7 -71.9  295  61 31   1.9   1.0
 40000 -53.5 -64.3  280  68 35   6.7   3.7 | -53.8 -64.8  280  65 34   6.7   3.7
 38000 -49.5 -57.1  280  57 29   6.8   3.7 | -49.8 -57.6  280  55 28   6.8   3.7
 36000 -45.4 -49.7  285  46 24   6.6   3.6 | -45.7 -50.3  280  44 23   6.6   3.6
 34000 -40.8 -41.4  280  42 21   7.8   4.3 | -40.9 -41.6  280  39 20   8.2   4.5
 32000 -36.1 -33.0  275  39 20   7.7   4.2 | -36.0 -32.8  285  35 18   8.1   4.4
 30000 -31.4 -24.5  280  33 17   8.0   4.4 | -31.3 -24.3  290  29 15   7.7   4.2
 29000 -28.4 -19.1  285  29 15   8.0   4.4 | -29.0 -20.2  295  27 14   7.7   4.2
 28000 -26.1 -15.0  285  26 13   7.4   4.1 | -26.2 -15.2  295  23 12   6.9   3.8
 27000 -23.9 -11.0  290  23 12   7.4   4.0 | -24.2 -11.6  300  21 11   7.0   3.8
 26000 -21.7  -7.1  295  21 11   7.4   4.1 | -22.1  -7.8  305  19 10   7.0   3.8
 25000 -19.6  -3.3  300  20 10   7.1   3.9 | -20.0  -4.0  315  16  8   6.8   3.7
 24000 -17.7   0.1  310  16  8   6.1   3.4 | -18.1  -0.6  325  13  7   6.5   3.5
 23000 -15.8   3.6  320  12  6   6.1   3.4 | -16.1   3.0  340  11  6   6.5   3.5
 22000 -13.9   7.0  340   9  5   6.0   3.3 | -14.2   6.4  360  10  5   6.3   3.4
 21000 -12.1  10.2  355   8  4   5.9   3.2 | -12.4   9.7  015  10  5   6.0   3.3
 20000 -10.3  13.5  010   9  4   5.9   3.2 | -10.6  12.9  025  11  5   6.0   3.3
 19500  -9.4  15.1  020   9  5   5.9   3.2 |  -9.7  14.5  030  11  6   6.0   3.3
 19000  -8.6  16.5  025   9  5   5.9   3.2 |  -8.8  16.2  035  10  5   6.7   3.7
 18500  -7.7  18.1  030   9  4   5.9   3.3 |  -7.8  18.0  045   9  5   6.7   3.7
 18000  -6.9  19.6  040   8  4   6.4   3.5 |  -6.8  19.8  060   8  4   6.7   3.7
 17500  -5.9  21.4  045   8  4   6.8   3.7 |  -5.8  21.6  070   8  4   6.7   3.7
 17000  -4.9  23.2  050   8  4   6.9   3.8 |  -4.8  23.4  085   8  4   6.8   3.7
 16500  -3.9  25.0  060   8  4   6.2   3.4 |  -3.9  25.0  095   8  4   7.1   3.9
 16000  -3.0  26.6  070   8  4   6.3   3.4 |  -2.8  27.0  110   8  4   7.2   3.9
 15500  -2.1  28.2  080   8  4   6.6   3.6 |  -1.9  28.6  120   9  4   6.8   3.7
 15000  -1.1  30.0  095   7  4   6.8   3.7 |  -0.9  30.4  130   9  5   6.8   3.7
 14500   0.4  32.7  120   8  4   7.8   4.3 |   0.1  32.2  140  10  5   6.7   3.7
 14000   1.4  34.5  135   8  4   7.8   4.3 |   1.4  34.5  145  10  5   6.7   3.7
 13500   2.5  36.5  145   9  5   7.8   4.3 |   2.4  36.3  145  10  5   7.9   4.3
 13000   3.6  38.5  145   9  5   7.9   4.3 |   3.5  38.3  140   9  5   8.0   4.4
 12500   4.6  40.3  145   9  5   7.8   4.3 |   4.6  40.3  140   8  4   9.0   4.9
 12000   5.6  42.1  140   7  4   7.9   4.3 |   5.9  42.6  140   8  4   9.3   5.1
 11500   6.7  44.1  135   6  3   8.9   4.9 |   7.3  45.1  135   7  4   9.6   5.3
 11000   8.1  46.6  135   6  3   9.4   5.1 |   8.7  47.7  135   7  3   9.7   5.3
 10500   9.3  48.7  135   5  3   3.9   2.1 |  10.1  50.2  135   6  3   3.9   2.1
 10250   9.5  49.1  135   5  3   6.8   3.7 |  10.3  50.5  140   6  3   6.8   3.7
 10000  10.5  50.9  135   5  2  14.2   7.8 |  11.2  52.2  140   6  3  14.2   7.8
  9750  11.4  52.5  135   5  2  12.1   6.6 |  12.1  53.8  140   6  3  12.0   6.6
  9500  12.2  54.0  140   4  2   8.7   4.8 |  12.9  55.2  140   5  3   9.0   5.0
  9250  12.7  54.9  140   4  2   6.6   3.6 |  13.5  56.3  140   5  2   7.0   3.8
  9000  13.4  56.1  145   4  2  10.4   5.7 |  14.1  57.4  140   4  2   9.3   5.1
  8750  14.2  57.6  145   4  2  11.5   6.3 |  14.8  58.6  150   3  2   9.8   5.4
  8500  15.0  59.0  150   3  2  10.0   5.5 |  15.5  59.9  160   3  1   8.9   4.9
  8250  15.7  60.3  150   3  2   9.5   5.2 |  16.1  61.0  175   2  1   8.8   4.8
  8000  16.4  61.5  155   3  2  10.1   5.6 |  16.8  62.2  195   2  1   8.2   4.5
  7750  17.2  63.0  155   3  2  10.3   5.6 |  17.4  63.3  215   2  1   8.3   4.6
  7500  17.9  64.2  160   3  1   9.8   5.4 |  18.0  64.4  225   3  1   9.6   5.2
  7250  18.7  65.7  160   3  1   9.5   5.2 |  18.7  65.7  230   3  1   9.3   5.1
  7000  19.4  66.9  165   3  1  10.7   5.9 |  19.4  66.9  235   3  2  10.5   5.7
  6750  20.2  68.4  170   2  1  10.6   5.8 |  20.2  68.4  240   3  2  10.5   5.8
  6500  20.9  69.6  170   2  1   9.5   5.2 |  20.9  69.6  245   3  2   9.4   5.2
  6250  21.6  70.9  175   2  1   9.3   5.1 |  21.6  70.9  245   4  2   9.5   5.2
  6000  22.4  72.3  180   2  1  11.1   6.1 |  22.4  72.3  250   4  2  10.5   5.7
  5750  23.3  73.9  190   2  1  15.6   8.5 |  23.2  73.8  250   4  2  12.5   6.8
  5500  24.5  76.1  190   2  1  17.3   9.5 |  24.1  75.4  250   4  2  12.4   6.8
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.